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May 4th - During the May Day holiday, short-distance cross-border travel between Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao saw another surge. According to statistics from the Gongbei Border Inspection Station, from May 1st to 3rd, the station processed over 1.23 million inbound and outbound passengers traveling between Zhuhai and Macao through the Gongbei Port. As a core hub for interconnectivity within the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and a key gateway connecting the mainland and Macao, the Gongbei Port has seen a continuous increase in passenger traffic this year, vividly demonstrating the vibrant integration and development of the Greater Bay Area.The UK Maritime Trade Operations Office: The maritime security threat level in the Strait of Hormuz remains critical due to ongoing regional military operations. Seafarers in the area should be aware of increased naval presence, enhanced force protection posture, potential VHF calls, and congestion near anchorages.Indonesias Statistics Agency: The Consumer Price Index rose 2.42% year-on-year in April.On May 4th, the Organization of the Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) issued a statement on May 3rd confirming that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) had officially withdrawn from the organization. The statement said that the OPEC Secretariat had received a letter from UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei to the current Chairman of the Council of Ministers, announcing the UAEs decision to withdraw from the organization, effective May 1, 2026. Previously, on April 28th, the UAE announced its withdrawal from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and OPEC+, effective May 1st. OPEC was established in 1968, headquartered in Kuwait, and aims to promote cooperation among its member countries and strive to maintain reasonable oil prices. The organization includes Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, and Iraq as its member states.On May 4th, European Central Bank Governing Council member Winsch stated that Europe is "naively" believing that the free-market economic model can survive the global transformation driven by the United States. He pointed out that EU policymakers are still pursuing goals such as open markets and limited state aid, but these goals no longer reflect the geopolitical realities shaped by Trumps "America First" policies. "Open trade and strict state aid rules are feasible in a rules-based world," Winsch said. "But that world has disappeared, and if you cling too tightly to a world that has disappeared, you are being naive." At the heart of his argument is that Europe has failed to internalize the fact that the global economy has moved away from a level playing field. He said that US protectionist policies have reshaped this landscape. "The world has changed, and we cannot keep doing the same things and giving the same answers, and these issues have failed to some extent in the past."

GBP/USD aims to retake 1.2300 amid an upbeat market sentiment, with US/UK Inflation in the spotlight

Daniel Rogers

Dec 13, 2022 15:11

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After dipping as low as 1.2260 during the Tokyo session, GBP/USD demand has increased. The Cable is attempting to reclaim the round-level resistance of 1.2300 as investors' risk appetite has risen significantly ahead of the release of U.S. inflation data.

 

The US Dollar index (DXY) has fallen below the round-level support of 105.00 as investors' pre-US inflation jitters have dissipated. S&P500 futures are maintaining their gains from Monday due to expectations of a drop in inflationary pressures. The anticipated change in the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate policy has reinforced optimism on a broader scale.

 

The street anticipates a reduction in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), driven by a decline in gasoline costs and consumer-inflation estimates for one year. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's monthly Survey of Consumer Forecasts reported on Monday that US consumers' one-year inflation expectations decreased to 5.2% in November from 5.9% in October, the greatest one-month reduction on record. Inflation expectations have consequently decreased to 7.3% for headline inflation and to 6.0% for core inflation.

 

On the British Pound front, investors anticipate the release of the United Kingdom Employment and CPI numbers on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. The quarterly Unemployment Rate (October) is anticipated to be 3.7%, up from the previously reported 3.6%. Aside from this, the statistics on Average Earnings is the most relevant aspect. Quarterly Average Earnings without Bonuses were anticipated to increase by 5.9% compared to the preceding announcement of 5.7%.

 

While it is anticipated that the headline rate of inflation in the United Kingdom would decline to 10.9% from 11.1%, as previously reported. As a result of the food supply issue, labor shortages, and growing input costs, food price inflation has soared. Investors should not overlook the possibility of an unforeseen inflation spike.

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