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Dubai Airport handled 2.5 million passengers in March, a 65.7% decrease year-on-year.On May 4th, local time, on May 2nd, Ali Nikozadeh, Deputy Speaker of the Iranian Islamic Parliament, emphasized in an interview along the Strait of Hormuz that "the Strait of Hormuz will not return to its pre-war state, and Iran will absolutely not back down a single step from the Strait of Hormuz." Nikozadeh stated that Parliament will approve a "Strait of Hormuz Management Law," which includes: a permanent ban on Israeli ships passing through this crucial waterway; ships from "hostile states" must pay "war reparations" to obtain passage permits; and other ships will only need Iranian authorization to pass.Sources indicate that Qatar Energys official selling price for May marine crude oil is set at a premium of $17.05 per barrel to the Oman/Dubai price; and an official selling price for onshore crude oil is set at a premium of $18 per barrel.Asian stocks surged on Monday, boosted by strong earnings reports from major U.S. tech companies and comments from President Trump that the U.S. would begin guiding some neutral ships stranded in the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index, excluding Japan, rose as much as 2.7%, a record high. Benchmark indices in South Korea and Taiwan, both dominated by tech stocks, soared by more than 3.5%. SK Hynix shares jumped nearly 10%, and TSMC shares jumped over 6%. Dilin Wu, research strategist at Pepperstone Group, said the current strength in markets like South Korea is due to AI-driven trading or speculation. She said she is “cautiously optimistic about Asian markets overall” because geopolitical uncertainty and high oil prices could constrain stock markets.On May 4th, Ryoo Sangdai, Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Korea, stated that its time to consider raising interest rates, as economic growth seems unlikely to fall significantly short of the central banks earlier forecasts, while inflation may exceed previous expectations. Ryoo, who is also a member of the Bank of Koreas Monetary Policy Committee, cited the stronger-than-expected economic resilience following the outbreak of the Middle East conflict and the rising inflationary pressures. The Bank of Korea has kept its benchmark policy rate unchanged since July of last year. In February, the Bank of Korea projected 2% economic growth and 2.2% inflation for the year. While policymakers initially expected the unrest in Iran to drag down economic growth and push up prices, recent data shows that the growth outlook has not deteriorated as feared due to strong semiconductor shipments, while inflation risks have increased. Regarding the won exchange rate, Ryoo stated that from an economic fundamentals perspective, the won remains weaker than in the past, although the market does not seem to see the current level as a major problem. The won recently hit its lowest level against the US dollar since the global financial crisis. Speaking about concerns about the economys reliance on semiconductors, Ryoo stated that the key risk lies in whether the cycle shifts or whether the spillover effects are lower than expected, rather than the industrys increasing share itself.

Before BOE/ECB policy statements, EUR/GBP crosses 0.86; UK inflation is the main topic

Alina Haynes

Dec 14, 2022 11:32

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The EUR/GBP pair is circling the significant resistance level of 0.8600 in the early Tokyo session. Following a test of the previous week's low near 0.8560 on gloomy UK Employment data, the cross significantly recovered on Tuesday.

 

Market participants had predicted a decline of 13,500 claimants in November, but instead the number of claimants unexpectedly surged by 30,500. In addition, the 6.1% increase in average earnings supported inflation forecasts since rising household incomes will stimulate strong retail consumption. Increased salaries will undoubtedly help people offset higher payments brought on by inflation-adjusted prices, but they will also leave them with more money to spend elsewhere, which will increase retail demand.

 

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the UK will be important in the future. The consensus predicts that annual headline inflation will decrease from 11.1% to 10.9%. The core CPI is anticipated to stay at 6.5%.

 

The Bank of England's decision on interest rates will have the greatest impact on the British economy this week (BOE). In an effort to lower inflation, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is likely to raise interest rates further. The announcement of a rate increase of 50 basis points (bps) is expected, according to analysts at Danske Bank.

 

The BOE forecast that financial limitations on UK businesses, particularly smaller ones, will worsen in 2023 in its most recent Financial Stability report. Additionally, there are still no significant signs of financial distress among British households.

 

Investors are paying close attention to the European Central Bank's monetary policy decision on the Eurozone front (ECB). Interest rates are anticipated to rise by 50 basis points (bps) to 2.5% under Christine Lagarde's leadership as head of the European Central Bank. The expected terminal rate for the ECB is 3 percent.