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On May 25th, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who was visiting India, told the media on the 24th that a draft agreement between the US and Iran had gained the support of several Middle Eastern countries. Rubio said that seven to eight countries in the region currently support the draft, and the US is prepared to continue pushing it forward. Rubio also stated that nuclear negotiations are highly specialized, and "its impossible to settle a nuclear matter in 72 hours by writing it on the back of a napkin," but President Trumps commitment to preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons should not be questioned. Earlier that day, Trump posted on social media that negotiations with Iran were "going in an orderly and constructive manner," and that he had informed US representatives that there was no need to rush into an agreement with Iran.On May 25th, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde stated that the ECB is likely to raise its inflation outlook when policymakers meet next month. She said on Sunday that the March forecast of 2.6% inflation this year "may be revised," adding that the situation "has changed" since then. Her comments confirm recent signals from policymakers, including Governing Council member Demarco. Demarco, in an interview, suggested that the forecast, released shortly after the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq conflict, might have been overly optimistic. Lagarde declined to elaborate on whether such a revision would lead to a rate hike by the ECB on June 11th. "The current situation is so uncertain that we must examine all available data, assess how the economy will develop in the coming quarters, determine whether action is needed, and what the medium-term impact will be," she said. "Our target is 2% in the medium term."On May 25th, Kevin Hassett, US President Trumps chief economic advisor, stated that he believes the eventual drop in oil prices will create room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. "We again expect that once an agreement is reached, energy prices will plummet," Hassett said. "When that happens, the Fed will have ample room to take the right action and lower interest rates." He emphasized his respect for the Feds independence and praised Kevin Warsh, who was sworn in as Fed chairman last Friday. While the surge in US fuel prices caused by Irans closure of the Strait of Hormuz poses a growing political risk to Trump and his Republicans in the November midterm elections, Hassett believes that accelerating inflation is primarily driven by energy prices. "If you look at the recent data reports, energy prices are absolutely worrying, but core prices have hardly changed," he said. "I think once we see energy prices fall, you might actually see negative inflation because of the drop in energy prices."European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde: The current situation is too uncertain to make a commitment on interest rates; inflation forecasts may be revised in June, at which time the ECB will assess the economic situation by taking all data into account.May 25th - According to sources, Ubers board of directors met on Saturday to discuss raising its takeover bid for German food delivery group Delivery Hero. Uber had previously offered €38 per share to Delivery Heros largest shareholder, but this was rejected. Uber is currently evaluating whether to raise its offer again. Meanwhile, several Delivery Hero shareholders have stated they are seeking a price of over €40 per share for the entire company, which would value the company at approximately €13 billion.

Before BOE/ECB policy statements, EUR/GBP crosses 0.86; UK inflation is the main topic

Alina Haynes

Dec 14, 2022 11:32

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The EUR/GBP pair is circling the significant resistance level of 0.8600 in the early Tokyo session. Following a test of the previous week's low near 0.8560 on gloomy UK Employment data, the cross significantly recovered on Tuesday.

 

Market participants had predicted a decline of 13,500 claimants in November, but instead the number of claimants unexpectedly surged by 30,500. In addition, the 6.1% increase in average earnings supported inflation forecasts since rising household incomes will stimulate strong retail consumption. Increased salaries will undoubtedly help people offset higher payments brought on by inflation-adjusted prices, but they will also leave them with more money to spend elsewhere, which will increase retail demand.

 

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the UK will be important in the future. The consensus predicts that annual headline inflation will decrease from 11.1% to 10.9%. The core CPI is anticipated to stay at 6.5%.

 

The Bank of England's decision on interest rates will have the greatest impact on the British economy this week (BOE). In an effort to lower inflation, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is likely to raise interest rates further. The announcement of a rate increase of 50 basis points (bps) is expected, according to analysts at Danske Bank.

 

The BOE forecast that financial limitations on UK businesses, particularly smaller ones, will worsen in 2023 in its most recent Financial Stability report. Additionally, there are still no significant signs of financial distress among British households.

 

Investors are paying close attention to the European Central Bank's monetary policy decision on the Eurozone front (ECB). Interest rates are anticipated to rise by 50 basis points (bps) to 2.5% under Christine Lagarde's leadership as head of the European Central Bank. The expected terminal rate for the ECB is 3 percent.