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According to the Wall Street Journal: Ford Motor (FN) further cuts 1,000 jobs in Germany due to continued weak demand for electric vehicles.The European Parliaments head of metals will visit Kyiv, MEPs said.September 17th news: On September 17th local time, Krasnodar Airport in southern Russia received the first flight since its suspension of operations. This is also the first time the airport has resumed formal operations since its closure since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022.The number of rate cuts this year is expected to increase. 1. JPMorgan Chase: The updated dot plot indicates room for three rate cuts this year, one more than the June dot plot. 2. Deutsche Bank: The updated dot plot median may indicate a total of 75 basis points of rate cuts in 2025, 25 basis points more than the June forecast. 3. Barclays: The dot plot indicates three rate cuts this year, one each in 2026 and 2027, while the median long-term rate forecast remains unchanged at 3.0%. 4. Bank of Montreal: The median rate forecast for the end of 2025 is expected to be lowered to reflect the possibility of 25 basis point cuts at both the October and December meetings. The dot plot remains unchanged from June. 1. Pepperstone: The Federal Reserve is likely to disappoint market expectations. The dot plot median is likely to remain unchanged, still indicating only a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points this year. 2. UBS: The dot plot will show two rate cuts this year, while the market expects closer to three. Participants economic outlook forecasts will also be in focus. 3. Bank of America: With macroeconomic forecasts largely unchanged, the median Fed rate forecast for 2025 will continue to indicate a 50 basis point cut, despite a downward shift in the overall dot plot. 4. Goldman Sachs: We expect the updated dot plot to show two rate cuts this year, to 3.875%. While the Fed may currently be planning three consecutive rate cuts this year, it may decide that forcing this into the dot plot is unnecessary. 5. Morgan Stanley: We expect the median dot plot to still show two rate cuts this year, but actual economic data may push the Fed to continue cutting rates throughout the rest of the year, extending this round of cuts into January. Other Views: 1. Citigroup: The updated dot plot is likely to indicate two to three rate cuts this year, and the median rate forecast for 2026 may also be revised downward.The UKs core CPI monthly rate in August was 0.3%, in line with expectations and the previous value of 0.2%.

GBP/JPY moves around 161.50 as Winter Energy Shock worries rise

Alina Haynes

Aug 26, 2022 15:14

 截屏2022-08-26 上午9.59.52.png

 

GBP/JPY is trading between 161.32-161.60 in Tokyo. After Wednesday's firmer rebound from 160.86, the cross is sideways. The cross rose after retesting Tuesday's low near 161.00, but the lack of a convincing reason caused it to drift sideways.

 

As the UK economy approaches a recession and energy shocks loom, the cross could reverse its drop. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, British gas and power costs are rising due to an embargo on Russian energy imports. As winter approaches, the energy regulator has enforced an 80% price cap hike.

 

The energy price cap hike will undoubtedly depress British homeowners. The administration has failed to cut the labor cost index, which is at its highest level in 40 years. Rising energy prices will reduce consumer confidence in the economy. The pound could be affected.

 

The Bank of Japan's (BOJ) conservative monetary policy has failed to stimulate the yen zone. The Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI for Japan was 51, lower than 51.8 and 52.1. Services PMI was 49.2, compared to 50.7 and 50.3.

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