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On January 29th, the US Treasury yield curve steepened for the second consecutive trading day, primarily driven by a weaker dollar and stronger oil prices, both of which boosted inflation expectations. The 2-year/10-year Treasury yield spread widened to 67.6 basis points at one point, up from 66.6 basis points at the close on Tuesday. The yield curve exhibited a typical "bear market steepening" characteristic, where longer-term yields rise faster than shorter-term yields as investors price in the risk of renewed inflation acceleration. Gunnett Dingela, Head of US Interest Rates Strategy at BNP Paribas, stated, "Weaker dollars typically lead to longer-term yields becoming more sensitive to inflation risks. Therefore, the dollar and Treasuries often act as pressure relief valves for the combination of monetary and fiscal policies. If the combination of fiscal and monetary policies suggests that the dollar will continue to weaken, then I think the rise in long-term yields is a textbook reaction."The German DAX 30 index closed down 91.30 points, or 0.37%, at 24,816.93 on Wednesday, January 28; the UK FTSE 100 index closed down 55.50 points, or 0.54%, at 10,152.30 on Wednesday, January 28; and the French CAC 40 index closed down 86.14 points, or 1.06%, at 8,066.68 on Wednesday, January 28; European The Stoxx 50 index closed down 62.53 points, or 1.04%, at 5932.06 on Wednesday, January 28; the Spanish IBEX 35 index closed down 206.52 points, or 1.16%, at 17597.58 on Wednesday, January 28; and the Italian FTSE MIB index closed down 343.94 points, or 0.76%, at 45096.50 on Wednesday, January 28.The percentage of winning bids for the 4-month U.S. Treasury bonds auctioned as of January 28 was 45.62%, compared to 50.47% previously.The bid-to-cover ratio for the US 4-month Treasury bond auction ending January 28 was 2.92, compared to 2.99 previously.The US 4-month Treasury auction on January 28th yielded a winning bid of 3.59%, compared to 3.58% previously.

Forecast for Gold Price: XAUUSD oscillates above $1,770 as attention switches to US Retail Sales

Daniel Rogers

Nov 15, 2022 16:52

 截屏2022-09-15 下午3.06.36.png

 

During the Asian session, the gold price (XAUUSD) is fluctuating in uncharted area above the crucial barrier of $1,770.00. Amid market uncertainty preceding the US midterm elections, the precious metal has moved sideways. However, the public anticipates a decisive victory for Republicans in the House of Representatives.

 

The US dollar index (DXY) is failing to surpass the immediate barrier of 107.00 as the likelihood of the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintaining its current pace of rate hikes decline. In addition, increased demand for U.S. government bonds has caused rates to plummet. In the meantime, S&P500 futures have continued their rebound following Monday's pessimism.

 

The US Retail Sales statistics will be a focal point moving forward. According to predictions, the economic data is expected to be 0.9% compared to the previous release of 0%. The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of October decreased to 0.3% from 0.6% in the previous report. The combination of a drop in price growth and a substantial increase in retail sales shows healthy retail demand.


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