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On June 16th, Deutsche Securities stated that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is at a "critical communication crossroads," needing to decide whether to maintain its current forward guidance wording or adjust its description of monetary easing. If the BOJ continues with its current wording, a future interest rate hike to 1.25% will present a new challenge—how to provide a reasonable explanation for further rate increases. Since the lower bound of the BOJs calculated nominal neutral interest rate range is approximately 1.1%, and the 1% policy rate is already very close to this level, if interest rates rise further above 1.1%, monetary policy will be difficult to describe as accommodative.June 16th - The Bank of Japans current forward guidance wording states: "Given that real interest rates are at a significantly low level, the central bank will continue to raise policy rates and adjust the degree of monetary easing to address developments in economic activity, prices, and financial conditions." Barclays economists believe the Bank of Japan will retain its forward guidance but will fine-tune the wording, changing "real interest rates are at a significantly low level" to "real interest rates remain low" or "especially in the short- and medium-term interest rate range, real interest rates remain negative."June 16th - The national average urban surveyed unemployment rate for January-May was 5.2%. In May, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The surveyed unemployment rate for local registered labor force was 5.2%; the surveyed unemployment rate for migrant workers was 4.9%, of which the surveyed unemployment rate for migrant agricultural workers was 4.9%. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 5.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The national average weekly working hours for employees in enterprises was 48.2 hours.June 16 – A press conference for the 17th Annual Meeting of the New Champions of the World Economic Forum, also known as the Summer Davos Forum, will be held in Beijing today. The 2026 Summer Davos Forum is scheduled to be held in Dalian, Liaoning Province, from June 23 to 25. Participants come from more than 90 countries and regions worldwide, with total registered participants exceeding 1,700, setting a new record. The forum, themed "Innovation at Scale," will focus on a series of topics related to global innovation trends and industrial transformation and upgrading, gathering wisdom from various sectors to inject momentum into promoting global economic recovery and sustained growth.On June 16th, Li Auto (02015.HK) held its Livis Day software and embodied intelligence launch event in Beijing. Li Auto officially proposed a complete definition of an embodied intelligent vehicle: an intelligent agent possessing the capabilities of an electric vehicle, a professional driver, an AI computer, and a life assistant. Based on this definition, the event systematically showcased the next-generation Li Space interactive experience, its self-developed embodied intelligence model, the worlds first dynamic dataflow AI chip, Mach M100, embodied intelligence products and experiences, and released OTA growth milestones covering the entire year. Li Xiang, Chairman and CEO of Li Auto, stated that Li Autos self-developed Mach M100 chip will achieve mass production and deployment in vehicles in May 2026, becoming the worlds first mass-produced dynamic dataflow AI chip. With the mass production and deployment of the Mach M100, Li Auto has achieved full-stack self-development of chips, compilers, operating systems, AI algorithms, and domain controllers.

Forecast for Gold Price: XAUUSD advances to the backside of the bull micro trend

Alina Haynes

Nov 15, 2022 16:49

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Despite a stronger US Dollar, the Gold price reached a new three-month high on Monday as US yields rose in response to Friday's disappointing US Consumer Price Index report. Friday's inflation figures prompted speculators to anticipate that the Federal Reserve would hold off on large interest rate hikes. As a result, demand for gold remains strong.

 

In spite of a hawkish Federal Reserve meeting, in which Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against the market's reaction to a dovish announcement by suggesting that the terminal rate could be higher than initially anticipated, commodities prices have been staging a rebound from their year-to-date lows. A number of factors contribute to the shift in opinion, including rumors that China will relax its zero-Covid restrictions. Due to a recent string of less inflationary US data outcomes, it had been speculated that a Fed policy shift was imminent.

 

US consumer prices grew 0.4% for the month of October and 7.7% year-over-year, as reported on Friday. This was down from 8.2% year-over-year in September and 0.2 percentage points below the consensus, with the ex-food and energy estimate coming in at 6.3%. This was a positive report, and the market's response included a 5.5% increase in the S&P 500 and a 26 basis point drop in the 2-year Treasury rate, which sent gold soaring and the dollar plummeting. Gold traders were already focused on the increase in money managers' short positions over the past few months, which led to significant short covering above the $1,720 resistance level.