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RSM Chief Economist Joseph Brusueras: Warsh delivered the right hawkish signals at the press conference and attempted to reinforce the Fed’s credibility in restoring price stability, while also enhancing his own credibility.U.S. stocks continued to decline after the Walsh press conference, with the S&P 500 falling 1%, its biggest drop since July 29, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.65%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.6%.On September 17th, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh declined to answer questions at a press conference regarding his interactions with US President Trump. Trump has been calling for lower interest rates in recent months. Warsh stated, "I have no comment on my discussions with the president." White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Christopher Phelan said on Tuesday that raising interest rates would be a "mistake."On September 17th, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh stated that he would not disclose details of future interest rate decisions by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). He said, "I am not responsible for providing forward guidance. Our decision today (to raise interest rates) is a carefully considered, serious, and responsible one. We have been preparing for and thinking about this decision for the past 110 or 120 days." Warsh also stated that this decision was not market-driven. He said, "Our decision today is based on our assessment of the current situation, our judgment of the employment trend, and our assessment of the strength of the economy. Sometimes, the market tries to anticipate our decisions. I watch market prices to see what information the market is sending. But todays decision is our own."On September 17th, Warsh stated that while the Federal Reserve cannot prevent price shocks in commodities such as oil on its own, the central bank can use policy tools to prevent further spread of inflationary pressures. Warsh said, "We cannot influence the price of any single commodity, such as oil or groceries." However, he pointed out, "We can and will ensure that any changes in relative prices do not spread further, and do not have second- or third-order effects on the economy. Thats our responsibility, and thats what were doing." Warsh made these remarks as U.S. diesel prices hit a record high due to the Iran war.

European gas crisis threatens the survival of a struggling aluminum business

Skylar Williams

Aug 10, 2022 11:16

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Gerd Roeders is reluctantly prepared to temporarily suspend his German aluminum foundry in order to weather Europe's worsening gas scarcity.


Roeders expects that by moving the 200-year-old operation to three weeks of 24-hour shifts followed by one week of rest, he would be able to maintain output while also decreasing his gas use.


According to him, his expenses have more than doubled since last year, and he anticipates that they will triple or perhaps quadruple by 2023.


Roeders estimates that the plan will lower the cost of the gas needed to power the ovens every morning, even if it means paying family-owned G.A. Roeders employees work night shifts.


Survival for G.A. Roeders GmbH and Germany's 600 smaller foundries, the great majority of which have fewer than 250 employees, will need cost reductions and unpleasant customer negotiations.


As staff prepared the facility for its first week of vacation, Roeders, 59, told Reuters, "We're establishing our prices for customers and advising them that they must pay extra." "We are unable to produce components if our investments yield no return."


G.A. Roeders, which has facilities in Germany and the Czech Republic and employs more than 500 people, produces over a thousand distinct components. It generates annual sales of 60 million euros servicing automakers such as Volkswagen (ETR:VOWG p) and Continental, aircraft manufacturers, and medical technology firms.


Contracts for foundries often include a clause enabling them to increase prices if the price of metal increases, but there is no such clause for energy.


Roeders added that he had always tried to conserve energy - the company's second-largest expenditure after staff - a tendency he inherited from his father, who would switch off office computers at night and dim the lights at lunch.


However, the organization is currently seeing great expansion.


Since the beginning of the year, the price of the front-month Dutch TTF gas contract, the European benchmark, has virtually tripled as a result of the reduction in Russian gas supplies via Nord Stream 1 and a tight global market.


Roeders remarked that it would be a step in the wrong direction to reuse the company's 30,000-litre oil tank, which has not been employed for years.


The German energy regulator is asking businesses, the government, and consumers to minimize their gas use and has required the larger corporations to submit emergency plans to further reduce usage throughout the winter.


German manufacturers such as Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen have stressed in recent weeks that sustaining production levels under emergency plans will only be possible if their suppliers continue to provide parts.


Aluminum, steel, and glass industries are even more dependent on natural gas than automobiles, creating worries that their global clientele would suffer if they were forced to suspend production.


According to supply chain analytics firm Interos, German car component manufacturers sell to over 3,000 direct customers in the United States, Europe, and Japan, with their products reaching over 100,000 second-tier clients.

'DRESS UP WARM'

The energy crisis is the latest in a string of interruptions, including limitations on carbon emissions, supply chain bottlenecks, and stricter due diligence regulations, which, according to small businesses, they would struggle to overcome without further aid.


A spokesman for the German Association of Foundries noted, "Converting to electric-powered machinery requires considerable upgrades and is only a possibility in the medium term."


"Currently, there is no alternative to filling machinery with gasoline," the spokesperson stated.


G.A. Roeders, along with an association of other aluminum producers and a university, has been awarded government funding to develop a prototype smelting furnace that may run on a combination of 30%-40% hydrogen and 60%-70% gas.


The ultimate objective is to operate only on hydrogen.


Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, interest in the concept has surged, but there are still a number of challenges that must be overcome before it can be implemented, such as scaling up the technology and developing a hydrogen charging network.


He indicated that industrializing something of this sort normally requires at least five years. As there is currently no hydrogen oven, we will need to dress warmly.