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Samsung Electronics: System LSI business revenue hit a record high in the first half of the year.Samsung Electronics: Profits are expected to continue to grow in the second half of the year.On July 30th, Huatai Macro Research Report stated that the FOMCs decision to hold rates steady in July somewhat eroded the Feds credibility, leading to rising inflation expectations and higher long-term interest rates. We believe the probability of a Fed rate hike in September remains high. The unexpectedly hawkish FOMC meeting in June resulted in tighter financial conditions, lower inflation expectations, and increased Fed credibility. However, with energy prices rising again, the market may have begun pricing in Warshs claim of zero tolerance for inflation as mere rhetoric. The subsequent rise in inflation expectations and long-term yields suggests that the Feds credibility may have been somewhat eroded. We reiterate our baseline forecast of a high probability of a September rate hike, 1-2 rate hikes this year, and 2 rate hikes before mid-next year. The risks remain: ① Warsh may have been merely bluffing; ② The AI boom may abruptly end, leading to tighter financial conditions and making a rate hike unnecessary. Pay attention to the July-August employment/inflation data and Warshs Jackson Hole speech on August 27th.Samsung Electronics reported a net profit of 71.3 trillion won for the second quarter, compared to market expectations of 68.5 trillion won. The chip divisions operating profit for the second quarter was 89.2 trillion won.On July 30th, according to foreign media reports, international oil prices rose nearly 7% on Wednesday. As large-scale airstrikes reignited in the Middle East, market hopes for an impending end to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran were dashed; meanwhile, US government data showed domestic crude oil inventories had fallen to multi-year lows, exacerbating concerns about supply reductions. UBS analyst Giovanni Staúnovo stated that the renewed military strikes in the Middle East and Iranian officials reiterating their intention to control shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz (despite a significant reduction in oil flow through the strait) further pushed up oil prices. On Wednesday, the US and Saudi Arabia launched strikes against Iranian-backed groups in Iraq, accusing them of drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities. Hours earlier, the US military announced it had successfully thwarted an Iranian raid targeting US forces in the region. Iran, in turn, stated it fired on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and US bases in Jordan.

E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Reversal Top Will Put 4004.75 on Radar

Florala Chen

Jun 01, 2022 15:21

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The response of traders at 4155.75 will most likely influence the direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index into Tuesday's closing.


Soaring oil prices and hawkish remarks from a Federal Reserve official worried investors, and June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures were trading substantially down immediately after the cash market opened on Tuesday.


At 13:49 GMT, the benchmark index was trading at 4109.25, down 46.50 points or 1.12%. The S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) is now trading at $410.89, down $4.37 or 1.05 percent from its previous close.


A decline in European equities overnight weighed on the market as Brent crude oil rose beyond $123 a barrel. The European Union's decision to partly ban Russian oil and China's decision to eliminate certain COVID-19 limitations were the drivers for the surge.


Sellers were also responding to a Fed official's hawkish remarks. Governor Christopher Waller of the Federal Reserve said on Monday that the US central bank should be prepared to hike rates by a half percentage point at each meeting from now on until inflation is well controlled.


Investors are now waiting for the result of President Joe Biden's meeting with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later in the day.

Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the major trend is up. The early price action, on the other hand, shows that momentum is about to move to the negative.


The return of the uptrend will be signaled by a trade through 4202.25. The major trend will shift to the downside if the price breaks through 3807.50.


The midpoint is between 4509.00 and 3807.50. The advance at 4202.25 earlier in the session was halted by its retracement zone around 4158.25 to 4241.00.


3807.50 to 4202.25 is the short-term range. The next negative objective is the retracement zone between 4004.75 to 3958.25.

Technical Forecast for the Daily Swing Chart

The response of traders at 4155.75 will most likely influence the direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index into Tuesday's closing.

Scenario that is bearish

The presence of sellers will be shown by a persistent move below 4155.75. Look for selling pressure to continue into 4004.75 to 3958.25 if this move is able to build enough bearish momentum.

Possibilities for Growth

The presence of buyers will be signaled by a prolonged advance over 4155.75. Overtaking 4158.25 will signal that the purchasing is becoming more powerful. This might provide the necessary upward impetus to surpass 4202.25 and challenge the Fibonacci level at 4241.00.

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