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On December 29, the Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese Peoples Liberation Army organized destroyers, frigates, fighter-bombers, and other forces to conduct exercises in the sea and airspace east of Taiwan Island, including maritime strike, regional air superiority, and anti-submarine warfare, testing the sea-air coordination and precision targeting capabilities.December 29th - According to Kyodo News, the proportion of foreign residents in Japan is approaching the 10% threshold at a rate far exceeding official forecasts, with dozens of municipalities already surpassing this figure. One village reported that more than one-third of its residents are foreign nationals. In July of this year, then-Justice Minister Keisuke Suzuki stated that by around 2040, the foreign population in Japan is expected to exceed 10% of the total population. Japans labor shortage problem is projected to worsen.Sources say India is suing Reliance Industries and BP for $30 billion over insufficient production from its gas fields.On December 29, the Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese Peoples Liberation Army organized destroyers, fighter-bombers, drones, and other forces in the northern and southwestern sea and airspace of Taiwan Island, along with long-range firepower, to conduct training exercises including sea-air search and destruction, simulated land attack, and live-fire exercises against sea targets. The exercises tested the PLAs integrated coordination and capability to seize control.On December 29th, the fourth meeting of the Standing Committee of the First Non-Motor Property Insurance Professional Committee of the Insurance Association of China was held in Beijing. Representatives from 24 standing committee member units, including the committees chairman, PICC Property & Casualty Insurance, attended the meeting, which was chaired by Zhang Liang, member of the Party Committee and Vice President of the Insurance Association of China. The meeting reviewed and approved a proposal to promote research on model clauses and rates for corporate property insurance and employers liability insurance. The meeting believed that the committee should focus on key and difficult issues in the comprehensive governance and development of non-motor insurance, and take proactive measures through establishing working groups to strengthen industry self-regulation, formulate model clauses, deepen industry research, promote information sharing, and conduct publicity and exchange, thereby reshaping industry rules and image and serving the healthy and sustainable development of the non-motor insurance market. The meeting pointed out that the committee should strengthen its own construction, focusing on the associations overall goal of "serving the industry well, assisting in supervision well, and contributing well to society," anchoring its responsibilities, strengthening self-discipline and collaboration, improving the evaluation and supervision mechanism, and effectively playing the functional role of the committee.

EUR / USD Investors Challenge 1.0600 As Mixed US Data Tests Fed Conservatives, US NFP, and ECB's Lagarde

Daniel Rogers

Mar 10, 2023 11:31

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EUR / USD gains bids to extend the midweek rebound from a two-month low, rising 0.16 percent intraday near 1.0600 on Friday morning. In doing so, the Euro-Dollar pair celebrates the broad weakness in the US Dollar ahead of the important US employment report for February and Christine Lagarde's speech as president of the European Central Bank (ECB).

 

The major currency pair reversed a two-day losing trend due to mixed US data and a decline in US Treasury bond yields the day before. Hawkish ECB remarks and the market's positioning for today's crucial US data bolstered the run-up. However, inflation worries and geopolitical tension present challenges for EUR / USD buyers.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims increased to 211K for the week ending March 3, compared to the predicted 195K and the previous week's 190K. In addition, there was a decline in Challenger Job Cancellations and an increase in Continuing Jobless Claims. Consequently, early indications for Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) appear mixed and challenge the market's push for a 0.50 percentage point Fed rate hike in March, which is supported by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's most recent signals.

 

Despite contradictory data, inflation worries continue to favor Fed conservatives, especially after Chairman Jerome Powell defends the stricter monetary policy, which restrains Euro prices. It should be noted that the most recent report from the New York Fed noted that recent upward revisions to inflation data and higher-than-anticipated levels of inflation had altered what had previously appeared to be a decline in price pressures.

 

Francois Villeroy de Galhau, an ECB policymaker, stated on Thursday that they will return inflation to 2% by the end of 2024 or 2025.

 

In addition to the aforementioned catalysts, geopolitical concerns emanating from US President Joseph Biden's proposed budget for 2024 and the US's partnership with the UK and Australia for nuclear submarines should challenge EUR / USD buyers.

 

In this context, US 10-year and 2-year Treasury bond yields extend yesterday's losses to 3.88% as of press time, dragging on the US Dollar Index (DXY), which is presently down 0.10 percent to 105.12. Despite this, Wall Street benchmarks closed with daily losses exceeding 1.5%, causing S&P 500 Futures to post modest losses as of press time.

 

According to market predictions, the employment report for February in the United States is expected to reveal a general softening. The same contrasts with the Fed's hawkish inclination to emphasize the likelihood of a significant market move in favor of the US Dollar in the event of a positive surprise. However, Lagarde of the ECB must confirm this.

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