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On August 15th, local time, US President Trump, speaking at an event in Garden City, New York on the afternoon of August 14th, urged Americans to "accept higher gasoline prices" as "the price to pay to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons." Trump also stated, "After we defeat Iran... I will soon declare the Strait of Hormuz as American territory." The seriousness of his remarks remains unclear.August 15th - According to the Wall Street Journal, sources familiar with the matter revealed that Nvidia and OpenAI are close to reaching a financing agreement to build a large data center campus in Ohio. However, the two parties have restructured the deal, with Nvidia initially only guaranteeing half of the multi-billion dollar expansion plan, instead of the full amount. The revised plan reduces Nvidias financial guarantee from $250 billion to less than $120 billion. This adjustment is in response to investor concerns about the chipmakers exposure as it leverages its balance sheet to boost demand for its AI chips. The agreement could be signed as early as this weekend. Under the framework currently under discussion, Nvidia will provide financial guarantees for the first phase (totaling approximately 5 gigawatts of power capacity), with subsequent phases and financing methods to be decided later. According to two people familiar with the project, OpenAI is still negotiating and plans to sign a binding lease for 10 gigawatts of capacity in the project within the next few days.Indonesias Geophysical Agency: The tsunami warning issued after the 7.7 magnitude earthquake has been lifted.On August 15th, according to two people familiar with Anthropics finances, the company projects revenue of approximately $190 billion to $200 billion by 2028. This projection significantly exceeds the $47 billion "annualized revenue" the company announced in May. Four sources stated that bankers and investors are using enterprise value multiples based on these projections. Using revenue multiples is common for high-growth software companies that havent yet established a mature profit model. However, extending the projection period to two years in advance is unusual, reflecting the speed of Anthropics business expansion and the difficulty of setting a valuation benchmark for a company still heavily investing in AI infrastructure.Sources say Anthropic expects its revenue to reach $190 billion to $200 billion by 2028.

Dollar Index: Bears Continue to Dominate Below 102.00

Alina Haynes

May 30, 2022 17:02

 截屏2022-05-30 下午4.54.16.png

 

The greenback, as measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY), continues on the defensive after Monday's recovery from lows in the 102.40-35 range.

Multi-Week Lows for the US Dollar Index

The index loses ground for the third consecutive session at the start of the week, remaining below the 102.000 level and despite a widespread preference for riskier assets among investors.

 

On Monday, no US market activity should leave the price action at the mercy of global risk appetite trends, as market participants continue to evaluate the various moves the Federal Reserve could take to normalize monetary conditions, primarily through interest rate hikes.

 

Monday's US schedule is barren, with just C. Waller (permanent voter, hawk) scheduled to speak during the NA session.

What to Search for Regarding USD

The dollar retreated to multi-week lows at the conclusion of last week due primarily to investors' tilt toward riskier assets.

 

Also weighing on the dollar was the view that inflation may have peaked in April, which supports the notion that the Fed may not need to be as active in hiking Fed Funds rates as market players anticipate.

 

In the meantime, the Fed's divergence from the majority of its G10 peers, geopolitical turbulence, rising US rates, and a potential "hard landing" of the US economy are all factors that will continue to favor a stronger dollar in the coming months.

 

House Price Index, CB Consumer Confidence (Tuesday); MBA Mortgage Applications, Final Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, Fed Beige Book (Wednesday); ADP Employment Change, Initial Claims, Factory Orders (Thursday); Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Final Services PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing (Friday); and Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Final Services PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing (Friday).

 

Back burner issues: Powell's "softish" landing... what does that mean? Increasing geopolitical tensions with Russia and China. The Fed's more aggressive path for interest rates this year and in 2023. US-China trade dispute. Future of the Build Back Better plan by Biden.

US Dollar Index Relevant Levels

Now, the index is falling 0.08 percent at 101.55 and the next support level is at 101.38 (30-day low for the month of May), followed by 101.11 (55-day simple moving average) and 99.81. (weekly low April 21). In contrast, a breach of 105.00 (13 May 2022 high) would pave the way to 105.63 (11 December 2002 high) and then 106.00. (round level).

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