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On September 7, OPEC+ agreed to increase production again in October. Amid weakening global demand, the Saudi-led OPEC group is pressing ahead with a six-month plan to regain market share. This decision will put pressure on oil prices, further confirming that Saudi Arabia has given up on pursuing higher prices and is focused on increasing revenue by restoring as much idle production as possible. Eight OPEC members, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE, said they will increase production by a total of 137,000 barrels per day next month. However, analysts say only Saudi Arabia and the UAE will be able to increase supply because most other members are already close to their production capacity limits. People familiar with the matter said that for Saudi Arabia, the political and economic costs of maintaining production cuts are too high. By quickly restoring production, Riyadh will also be able to assess the production capacity of each member country for possible future renegotiation of quotas.With a September Federal Reserve rate cut all but certain, options traders are widely betting on a stable stock market ahead of Thursdays CPI data. However, this bet could be risky if the data shows rising inflation. The markets rationale for a rate cut is straightforward: US job growth is stagnant and the economy needs stimulus. Fridays weak jobs data reinforced this expectation, prompting investors to fully price in a 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed next week. The markets reaction has been muted: US stocks fell slightly on Friday, and the fear gauge edged up slightly, but remains well below the critical 20 level, where it has mostly remained since June. Looking ahead, options traders are betting on a roughly 0.7% two-way move in the S&P 500 following Thursdays CPI release, below the 1% average realized move over the past year. However, this trade ignores a key risk: what if inflation figures significantly exceed expectations? "Its a very delicate balance right now," said Eric Teal, chief investment officer of Comerica Wealth Management. "Any data thats very positive or very negative could change the market outlook."On September 7, U.S. Treasury Secretary Jeffrey Bessant stated that the United States and Europe are discussing a new round of sanctions and secondary tariffs against Russia, hoping that the "collapse" of the Russian economy will prompt Putin to engage in peace talks with Ukraine. "We are ready to increase pressure on Russia, but we need the cooperation of our European partners," Bessant said. He also stated that President Trump and Vice President Cyril Vance spoke with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Friday, and that von der Leyen subsequently discussed sanctions with Bessant.Israel Airports Authority: The first flight from Ramon Airport to Tel Aviv will take off soon.Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak: OPEC+s production increase plan is beneficial to the Russian economy.

Dollar Growth And Fed Hawkishness Are Pressuring Gold Prices

Aria Thomas

Feb 23, 2023 11:45

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Gold prices moved little on Thursday, but were down for the week as the dollar reached a six-week high on concerns of a hawkish Federal Reserve. Investors are now focusing on impending economic data for additional clues on the U.S. economy and monetary policy.


Later in the day, a revised estimate of U.S. GDP for the fourth quarter will be released, with any sustained evidence of resilience in the economy giving the Fed more room to continue raising interest rates. This notion was strengthened this week by readings on business activity that exceeded expectations.


Friday will also see the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index for January, which is anticipated to confirm that inflation remained persistent throughout the month. In addition, the reading is likely to increase the Fed's calls for sharper interest rate increases in the future months.


At 19:07 E.T., spot gold was unchanged at $1,824.76 per ounce, while gold futures declined 0.1% to $1,832.85 per ounce (00:07 GMT). Both assets were down approximately 0.4% thus far this week.


Wednesday's publication of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's February meeting revealed that the majority of monetary policy committee members supported raising interest rates for an extended period of time this year. However, their proposals for a 25 basis point increase were deemed obsolete after data released after the Fed's meeting revealed that inflation remained much more persistent than anticipated.


Nonetheless, the dollar reached a six-week high versus a basket of currencies. The opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold and other precious metals increases as interest rates rise.


This week will also bring inflation data from the Eurozone and Japan, which are expected to indicate that global price pressures remain elevated, likely resulting in tightening monetary conditions.


On Thursday, other precious metals were trading lower. Futures for silver fell 0.6% to $21.530 per ounce, while futures for platinum fell 0.1% to $950.80 per ounce.


High-grade copper futures were muted at $4.1790 per pound on Thursday, after falling 1.1% on Wednesday.


In spite of this, prices of the crimson metal have increased by nearly 2% so far this week, due to evidence of resilience in U.S. economic activity and optimism regarding China's recovery.