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On April 7th, analysts at First Abu Dhabi Bank stated in a report that the strength of oil prices has been and will continue to be (at least in the short term) a more structural driver of inflationary pressures. The analysts pointed out that inflationary pressures have led to a sell-off in interest rates as expectations of central bank rate cuts have faded. Previously, the market had anticipated two to three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, but these expectations have been ruled out. LSEG data shows that the money market currently expects US policy rates to remain largely unchanged in 2026, with a very slight tightening bias. The market has even priced in a more hawkish rate hike scenario by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England by the end of this year, with increases of 74 basis points and 56 basis points respectively, "largely a result of imported energy inflation in Europe."Air India has announced an increase in its fuel surcharge due to a sharp rise in global jet fuel prices.Market news: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and US Vice President Vance will agree to purchase oil from the US during their meeting.April 7th - According to data monitored by Centaline Property Agency (Hong Kong), Hong Kong recorded 4,621 second-hand private residential property transactions in March, totaling HK$35.84 billion, representing increases of 18.1% and 20.7% respectively compared to 3,913 transactions and HK$29.69 billion in February. Data shows that in the first quarter of this year, Hong Kong recorded 12,449 second-hand private residential property transactions, totaling HK$94.91 billion, representing quarter-on-quarter increases of 13.6% and 12.4%. The number of transactions reached a new high in nearly 18 quarters since the third quarter of 2021 (13,084 transactions), while the transaction amount reached a new high in nearly 15 quarters since the second quarter of 2022 (HK$96.54 billion).Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó: US Vice President Vances visit indicates that US-Hungarian relations have entered a new "golden era".

Despite the RBA's aggressive policy statement, the AUD/JPY pair falls below 91.40

Daniel Rogers

Feb 10, 2023 11:43

AUD:JPY.png 

 

Having reached an intraday high greater than 91.40 during the Asian session, the AUD/JPY pair is currently under selling pressure. Despite the aggressive monetary policy statement by the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Australian Dollar has met offers (RBA).

 

Increasing gasoline prices, series demand, and electricity rates drove the increase in Australian inflation in December. The loss of rebates in Western Australia resulted in a 7% increase in electricity bills in December.

 

The RBA has projected that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth will be 2.75 percent in 2022, 1.5 percent in 2023, and 1.5 percent in 2024.

 

On the Japanese Yen front, investors are awaiting the Bank of Japan contenders to replace Haruhiko Kuroda (BoJ). Analysts at Commerzbank expect that next week's nomination, regardless of who emerges as the frontrunner, would have a substantial impact on the Yen exchange rate.

 

In the interim, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida stated, "The administration is in the process of picking the nominee for the next BoJ Governor, and they are aware of the market's keen interest in the choice." He stated, "Communication skills have become increasingly important for someone like the new governor of the Bank of Japan."

 

According to a report by Reuters, the Japanese government intends to present its candidates for governor and two deputy governors to parliament on February 14.

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