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Tip: The unrounded U.S. unemployment rate in December was 4.0855%, compared with 4.2457% in the previous month.January 10th, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar rose as the U.S. job market remained hot. The number of employed people in December was 256,000, far exceeding expectations. The November figure was lowered from 227,000 to 211,000. The unemployment rate was expected to remain at 4.2%, but has now dropped to 4.1%. The annual average hourly wage growth rate slowed slightly from 4% to 3.9%. The data supported expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged for a long time, fueling the bond sell-off that has been pushing up yields. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.783% from 4.695% before the data was released. The two-year Treasury yield is 4.381%, which will be the highest settlement price since September last year.The yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond rose to 5%, the highest level since November 2023.On January 10, Gregory Faranello, head of U.S. interest rate trading and strategy at AmeriVet Securities, said that this is a very solid report that supports the markets expectations that the Federal Reserve will skip this months meeting or even more meetings. This is also an important number at the time of the transition between the two governments. Now the focus has turned to inflation. With the new administration taking office, higher inflation data and a strong job market will increase calls for interest rate hikes.Russell 2000 futures fell 1.4% to a three-week low after the release of U.S. non-farm payrolls data.

Copper price falls below $3.40 as recession fears intensify

Alina Haynes

Oct 25, 2022 15:28

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Copper prices fall below Monday's lows as fears of a US economic recession intensify. The base metal has broken to the downside from the consolidation formed in a narrow band of $3.41 to $3.44 and is aiming for further depreciation as rising interest rates challenge growth rate forecasts.

 

A Reuters poll predicts that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates by 75 basis points (bps) in the first week of November. Notably, the Federal Reserve is acting particularly actively to reduce the inflation rate. Consequently, policy-tightening measures have been consistently popular.

 

This has increased the likelihood of a future recession, as the growth rate has been significantly lowered and unemployment levels are anticipated to rise. Fears of a recession have bolstered US Treasury Chief Janet Yellen's statement that one "cannot rule out the likelihood" of a recession, as reported by MSNBC.

 

China's copper imports have increased by 25.6% during the past year. Amid the announcements of stimulus measures by the Chinese government to avoid the implications of the zero-tolerance Covid strategy and a real estate crash, infrastructure spending has increased. After the monsoon season in Asia, construction and real estate firms are known to recover throughout the winter months.

 

According to a report by ANZ Research, copper imports increased significantly as the forecast for demand in the power industry improved.

 

After the third continuation of XI Jinping's leadership in China, his policy pronouncements will continue to be crucial moving forward.

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