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On May 21st, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global, stated that the UK economy is facing a "perfect storm" as escalating political uncertainty further amplifies the impact of the Middle East wars. Businesses reported declining output, soaring inflation, supply shortages, and frequent layoffs in May. Mays PMI data indicated that the countrys economy contracted by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, a stark contrast to the strong growth earlier this year. While the primary responsibility lies with the Middle East wars, businesses also pointed to escalating domestic political problems, leading to increased uncertainty and consequently suppressing consumption, hiring, and investment. The situation could worsen in the coming months, as some support for manufacturing has been seen from precautionary stockpiling, but this support will inevitably weaken once warehouses are full. Meanwhile, prices are soaring as these costs are passed on to consumers, foreshadowing a significant rise in inflation in the coming months. This situation of weak economic growth and persistently rising price pressures puts the Bank of England in an extremely difficult dilemma: on the one hand, they urgently need to raise interest rates to curb inflation; but on the other hand, doing so would increase the risk of a recession.On May 21st, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) reported the following warehouse receipts and changes: 1. Medium-sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts: 3,511,000 barrels, unchanged from the previous trading day; 2. Natural rubber futures warehouse receipts: 140,900 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons from the previous trading day; 3. Zinc futures warehouse receipts: 109,498 tons, an increase of 1,075 tons from the previous trading day; 4. Alumina futures warehouse receipts: 477,553 tons, a decrease of 4,813 tons from the previous trading day; 5. Nickel futures warehouse receipts: 79,737 tons, an increase of 470 tons from the previous trading day; 6. Gold futures warehouse receipts: 111,669 kg, an increase of 1,020 kg from the previous trading day; 7. Petroleum asphalt plant warehouse futures warehouse receipts: 31,220 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 8. Petroleum asphalt warehouse futures warehouse receipts: 21,120 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 9. Copper futures warehouse receipts were 99,866 tons, a decrease of 1,148 tons from the previous trading day; 10. Lead futures warehouse receipts were 64,345 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons from the previous trading day; 11. Silver futures warehouse receipts were 989,688 kg, a decrease of 5,039 kg from the previous trading day; 12. Low-sulfur fuel oil warehouse futures warehouse receipts were 0 tons, a decrease of 1,540 tons from the previous trading day; 13. TSR20 rubber futures warehouse receipts were 34,070 tons, a decrease of 1,311 tons from the previous trading day; 14. Aluminum futures warehouse receipts were 481,603 tons, an increase of 838 tons from the previous trading day; 15. Hot-rolled coil futures warehouse receipts were 577,327 tons, a decrease of 20,215 tons from the previous trading day; 16. Butadiene rubber futures warehouse receipts were 32,520 tons, a decrease of 700 tons from the previous trading day; 17. 18. Pulp warehouse futures receipts: 201,824 tons, up 2,980 tons from the previous trading day; 19. Pulp mill warehouse futures receipts: 20,000 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 10. Tin futures receipts: 8,341 tons, down 120 tons from the previous trading day; 20. Stainless steel warehouse futures receipts: 72,444 tons, down 184 tons from the previous trading day; 21. Fuel oil futures receipts: 47,160 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 22. Rebar warehouse futures receipts: 17,223 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 23. International copper futures receipts: 13,174 tons, down 349 tons from the previous trading day.The UK Office for National Statistics reports that net long-term migration to the UK will be 171,000 in 2025, compared to 331,000 the previous year.The onshore yuan closed at 6.7960 against the US dollar at 16:30 on May 21, up 100 points from the previous trading day.The UKs May composite PMI preliminary reading was 48.5, below the expected 51.6 and the previous reading of 52.6.

Copper Beats Gold This Week With Fears of A Rate Rise

Haiden Holmes

Feb 17, 2023 11:44

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Gold prices declined on Friday as stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation statistics and hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials stoked fears of more interest rate rises, while copper prices outpaced commodity markets this week due to confidence towards China.


The U.S. producer price index inflation increased more than anticipated in January, according to statistics released on Thursday. This follows a report on the consumer price index that indicated inflation in the world's largest economy remained sticky.


James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, stated that the central bank might resume raising interest rates at a more rapid pace and raised the possibility of a 50 basis point increase in March.


Meanwhile, Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Fed, stated that interest rates would likely rise over 5% as the Fed fights inflation, and that the central bank should have increased rates by more than 25 basis points at its February meeting.


The dollar and Treasury rates soared in response to their remarks, as investors flocked to the greenback in anticipation of higher and safer returns. This caused a substantial outflow from gold markets.


Spot gold decreased 0.2% to $1,833.67 per ounce, whilst gold futures declined 0.5% to $1,843.75 per ounce. Prices of the yellow metal were projected to fall between 1% to 1.7% this week, marking the third consecutive week of declines.


The likelihood of rising U.S. interest rates is unfavorable for non-yielding assets such as gold, as it increases their opportunity cost. Increasing interest rates also cause investors to select the dollar as a safe-haven asset due to its higher yields.


Other precious metals declined on Friday. Platinum prices dropped 0.6% to $920.30 per ounce, a three-month low, while silver futures sank 1.2% to $21.448 per ounce, a two-and-a-half month low.


Copper prices declined on Friday but were expected to end the week in the black due to optimism on China and probable supply disruptions.


Copper futures slipped 0.2% to $4.1137 a pound and were expected to rise 2.4% this week, their highest weekly performance since the beginning of January.


Copper was also poised to end a streak of three consecutive weekly losses as China, the world's top copper importer, signaled further stimulus measures to bolster economic development. Earlier this year, China loosened the majority of anti-COVID policies, which bolstered hopes for the nation's economic recovery.


A deteriorating conflict between the government of Panama and international copper miners threatens to halt the country's copper exports, so limiting supply and driving up prices.