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January 12th - JPMorgan Chases securities trading division stated that the Trump administrations latest challenges to the Federal Reserves independence pose a threat to the US stock market, at least in the short term. News of a potential criminal investigation into the Fed impacted US markets Sunday night, causing stock index futures and the dollar to fall, with funds flowing into safe-haven assets such as gold. Andrew Taylor, JPMorgan Chases global head of market intelligence, said, "While macroeconomic and corporate fundamentals support a tactical bullish stance, the risks to the Feds independence are creating downward pressure on the market, so we remain cautious in the very short term. The risks surrounding the Feds independence could push US markets to underperform in the short term."On January 12th, Jane Foley, head of foreign exchange strategy at Rabobank, stated in a report that the US dollar is expected to face greater volatility this year as political pressure on the Federal Reserve rises. Markets are concerned that the Fed may lose its independence due to government demands for interest rate cuts and pressure on current Chairman Powell. However, Foley pointed out that some argue that with inflation remaining high, other FOMC members could provide a check on a Fed chairman who favors rate cuts. Foley stated that uncertainty surrounding the Feds future credibility may put downward pressure on the dollar, "but not to the point of triggering an out-of-control decline."Mexican President Simbaum: Had a “good conversation” with US President Trump.Market news: Trump praises Meta Platforms (META.O) for hiring Powell McCormick.On January 12th, UBS Global Wealth Management Chief Economist Paul Donovan wrote that a criminal investigation into the current Federal Reserve Chairman could ultimately help strengthen the central banks independence. Market reactions indicate that investors are increasingly concerned about the Feds ability to manage interest rates without political interference. While asset prices have not fluctuated significantly overall, long-term US Treasury yields have risen and the dollar has weakened. Donovan stated that Powells hawkish stance may mean he is unwilling to resign from his position as a Fed governor this year; meanwhile, there are signs that the US Senate may delay confirming the nomination of a new Fed Chairman. He also pointed out that market concerns about central bank independence could translate into a hawkish force in future monetary policy decisions.

Copper Beats Gold This Week With Fears of A Rate Rise

Haiden Holmes

Feb 17, 2023 11:44

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Gold prices declined on Friday as stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation statistics and hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials stoked fears of more interest rate rises, while copper prices outpaced commodity markets this week due to confidence towards China.


The U.S. producer price index inflation increased more than anticipated in January, according to statistics released on Thursday. This follows a report on the consumer price index that indicated inflation in the world's largest economy remained sticky.


James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, stated that the central bank might resume raising interest rates at a more rapid pace and raised the possibility of a 50 basis point increase in March.


Meanwhile, Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Fed, stated that interest rates would likely rise over 5% as the Fed fights inflation, and that the central bank should have increased rates by more than 25 basis points at its February meeting.


The dollar and Treasury rates soared in response to their remarks, as investors flocked to the greenback in anticipation of higher and safer returns. This caused a substantial outflow from gold markets.


Spot gold decreased 0.2% to $1,833.67 per ounce, whilst gold futures declined 0.5% to $1,843.75 per ounce. Prices of the yellow metal were projected to fall between 1% to 1.7% this week, marking the third consecutive week of declines.


The likelihood of rising U.S. interest rates is unfavorable for non-yielding assets such as gold, as it increases their opportunity cost. Increasing interest rates also cause investors to select the dollar as a safe-haven asset due to its higher yields.


Other precious metals declined on Friday. Platinum prices dropped 0.6% to $920.30 per ounce, a three-month low, while silver futures sank 1.2% to $21.448 per ounce, a two-and-a-half month low.


Copper prices declined on Friday but were expected to end the week in the black due to optimism on China and probable supply disruptions.


Copper futures slipped 0.2% to $4.1137 a pound and were expected to rise 2.4% this week, their highest weekly performance since the beginning of January.


Copper was also poised to end a streak of three consecutive weekly losses as China, the world's top copper importer, signaled further stimulus measures to bolster economic development. Earlier this year, China loosened the majority of anti-COVID policies, which bolstered hopes for the nation's economic recovery.


A deteriorating conflict between the government of Panama and international copper miners threatens to halt the country's copper exports, so limiting supply and driving up prices.