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Samsung Electronics: System LSI business revenue hit a record high in the first half of the year.Samsung Electronics: Profits are expected to continue to grow in the second half of the year.On July 30th, Huatai Macro Research Report stated that the FOMCs decision to hold rates steady in July somewhat eroded the Feds credibility, leading to rising inflation expectations and higher long-term interest rates. We believe the probability of a Fed rate hike in September remains high. The unexpectedly hawkish FOMC meeting in June resulted in tighter financial conditions, lower inflation expectations, and increased Fed credibility. However, with energy prices rising again, the market may have begun pricing in Warshs claim of zero tolerance for inflation as mere rhetoric. The subsequent rise in inflation expectations and long-term yields suggests that the Feds credibility may have been somewhat eroded. We reiterate our baseline forecast of a high probability of a September rate hike, 1-2 rate hikes this year, and 2 rate hikes before mid-next year. The risks remain: ① Warsh may have been merely bluffing; ② The AI boom may abruptly end, leading to tighter financial conditions and making a rate hike unnecessary. Pay attention to the July-August employment/inflation data and Warshs Jackson Hole speech on August 27th.Samsung Electronics: Server chip demand is expected to be strong in the second half of the year. Chip supply shortages are expected to continue in the second half. Demand for mobile and PC chips is anticipated to slow.Samsung Electronics reported a net profit of 71.3 trillion won for the second quarter, compared to market expectations of 68.5 trillion won. The chip divisions operating profit for the second quarter was 89.2 trillion won.

Copper Beats Gold This Week With Fears of A Rate Rise

Haiden Holmes

Feb 17, 2023 11:44

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Gold prices declined on Friday as stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation statistics and hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials stoked fears of more interest rate rises, while copper prices outpaced commodity markets this week due to confidence towards China.


The U.S. producer price index inflation increased more than anticipated in January, according to statistics released on Thursday. This follows a report on the consumer price index that indicated inflation in the world's largest economy remained sticky.


James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, stated that the central bank might resume raising interest rates at a more rapid pace and raised the possibility of a 50 basis point increase in March.


Meanwhile, Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Fed, stated that interest rates would likely rise over 5% as the Fed fights inflation, and that the central bank should have increased rates by more than 25 basis points at its February meeting.


The dollar and Treasury rates soared in response to their remarks, as investors flocked to the greenback in anticipation of higher and safer returns. This caused a substantial outflow from gold markets.


Spot gold decreased 0.2% to $1,833.67 per ounce, whilst gold futures declined 0.5% to $1,843.75 per ounce. Prices of the yellow metal were projected to fall between 1% to 1.7% this week, marking the third consecutive week of declines.


The likelihood of rising U.S. interest rates is unfavorable for non-yielding assets such as gold, as it increases their opportunity cost. Increasing interest rates also cause investors to select the dollar as a safe-haven asset due to its higher yields.


Other precious metals declined on Friday. Platinum prices dropped 0.6% to $920.30 per ounce, a three-month low, while silver futures sank 1.2% to $21.448 per ounce, a two-and-a-half month low.


Copper prices declined on Friday but were expected to end the week in the black due to optimism on China and probable supply disruptions.


Copper futures slipped 0.2% to $4.1137 a pound and were expected to rise 2.4% this week, their highest weekly performance since the beginning of January.


Copper was also poised to end a streak of three consecutive weekly losses as China, the world's top copper importer, signaled further stimulus measures to bolster economic development. Earlier this year, China loosened the majority of anti-COVID policies, which bolstered hopes for the nation's economic recovery.


A deteriorating conflict between the government of Panama and international copper miners threatens to halt the country's copper exports, so limiting supply and driving up prices.