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On July 9th, InvestingLive analyst Adam Button stated that the Federal Reserves June meeting minutes released a hawkish signal, indicating that officials remain highly concerned about inflation risks. Button believes the Feds policy focus is shifting, with market attention moving from "when to cut rates" to "whether to raise rates." The minutes showed that some officials expect interest rates to be higher than current levels by the end of the year. He also pointed out that core inflationary pressures in the US remain significant, with rising prices in areas such as airfares and petrochemicals suggesting that inflation is not entirely driven by short-term factors. Overall, there is increasing disagreement within the Fed regarding the future path of interest rates, but high inflation remains a key factor influencing policy direction.July 9th - Federal Reserve meeting minutes revealed that policymakers still expect "real GDP to maintain solid growth" for the remainder of 2026. They also noted that multiple employment indicators suggest the labor market remains stable and does not appear to be a source of inflationary pressures. The June 17th statement was shorter than those released after recent meetings, foreshadowing action from Warsh, who has pledged to radically change the Feds communication strategy. The minutes showed that several officials agreed it was time to consider significant revisions to the post-meeting statement.US Secretary of State Marco Rubio: Lifting sanctions on Syria will open the door to international trade and investment and give Syria an opportunity to rebuild.July 9th - The minutes of the Federal Reserves June policy meeting revealed a significant divergence of opinion among officials regarding the future direction of interest rates. Some policymakers believed inflation might ease, creating conditions for a rate cut; others were concerned about persistent price pressures and thought a rate hike might be necessary. At the meeting held on June 16-17, the Fed unanimously decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 3.5% to 3.75%. However, discussions showed differing opinions among policymakers regarding the year-end interest rate level. Some officials believed that the rate might be close to or even slightly lower than current levels by the end of the year; others believed that rates might need to be higher than current levels. The Fed stated that future policy will be adjusted based on economic data such as inflation and employment.July 9th - The Federal Reserve meeting minutes stated, "Most participants emphasized that if inflation remains above 2% for several consecutive years, persistently high inflation could begin to affect inflation expectations and wage and price setting decisions." Fed officials also indicated that their inflation forecasts for this year and next are higher than those set at the April meeting, again demonstrating concerns about inflation. Staff predict that core inflation, already above 3%, will remain largely unchanged for the remainder of the year.

Copper Beats Gold This Week With Fears of A Rate Rise

Haiden Holmes

Feb 17, 2023 11:44

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Gold prices declined on Friday as stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation statistics and hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials stoked fears of more interest rate rises, while copper prices outpaced commodity markets this week due to confidence towards China.


The U.S. producer price index inflation increased more than anticipated in January, according to statistics released on Thursday. This follows a report on the consumer price index that indicated inflation in the world's largest economy remained sticky.


James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, stated that the central bank might resume raising interest rates at a more rapid pace and raised the possibility of a 50 basis point increase in March.


Meanwhile, Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Fed, stated that interest rates would likely rise over 5% as the Fed fights inflation, and that the central bank should have increased rates by more than 25 basis points at its February meeting.


The dollar and Treasury rates soared in response to their remarks, as investors flocked to the greenback in anticipation of higher and safer returns. This caused a substantial outflow from gold markets.


Spot gold decreased 0.2% to $1,833.67 per ounce, whilst gold futures declined 0.5% to $1,843.75 per ounce. Prices of the yellow metal were projected to fall between 1% to 1.7% this week, marking the third consecutive week of declines.


The likelihood of rising U.S. interest rates is unfavorable for non-yielding assets such as gold, as it increases their opportunity cost. Increasing interest rates also cause investors to select the dollar as a safe-haven asset due to its higher yields.


Other precious metals declined on Friday. Platinum prices dropped 0.6% to $920.30 per ounce, a three-month low, while silver futures sank 1.2% to $21.448 per ounce, a two-and-a-half month low.


Copper prices declined on Friday but were expected to end the week in the black due to optimism on China and probable supply disruptions.


Copper futures slipped 0.2% to $4.1137 a pound and were expected to rise 2.4% this week, their highest weekly performance since the beginning of January.


Copper was also poised to end a streak of three consecutive weekly losses as China, the world's top copper importer, signaled further stimulus measures to bolster economic development. Earlier this year, China loosened the majority of anti-COVID policies, which bolstered hopes for the nation's economic recovery.


A deteriorating conflict between the government of Panama and international copper miners threatens to halt the country's copper exports, so limiting supply and driving up prices.