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June 17th - The Federal Reserve will announce its first interest rate decision this Wednesday under the leadership of new Chairman Kevin Warsh. What he says and doesnt say will provide clues to the market, offering a glimpse into the Feds communication style he promises to change. Market observers will closely watch the wording of the post-meeting statement and any stylistic adjustments the new chairman may make. They also want to know if Warsh intends to continue holding post-meeting press conferences. Furthermore, it is expected that Warsh will push forward several reforms he has previously promised, including reducing the Feds balance sheet and refocusing the Fed on monetary policy. James Grant, editor of Grant Interest Rate Watch, believes that Warsh should confront and clean up the most unsavory aspects of the Feds own finances. He also suggests storing some gold in the Feds underground vaults to make it look more respectable. The Fed currently does not hold any gold. Grant also stated that if the Treasury stopped covering the Feds losses, it would have gone out of business long ago; the Fed is effectively insolvent. A closer look reveals that the Federal Reserves losses on fixed-income assets and bonds far exceed the amount it lists on its shareholders equity books.On June 17, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that the oil supply shock in the Gulf region is expected to cause a significant drop in global oil demand before oil supplies in the Strait of Hormuz gradually normalize, with supply projected to rebound to 8 million barrels per day by 2027. The IEA noted that while the interim agreement to be signed this week by the US and Iran represents the most significant breakthrough in negotiations since the outbreak of the war, a full restoration of supplies through this vital waterway is expected to take several months. The organization now projects that global oil demand will decline by 1.1 million barrels per day this year due to high oil prices and severe supply disruptions, compared to a previous forecast of a 420,000 barrel per day decline. With the normalization of trade, lower oil prices, and an improved economic outlook, demand is expected to rebound to 2 million barrels per day next year. The IEA stated, "While the details of the agreement are still pending clarification and several issues remain unresolved, this is an encouraging step forward. However, a full restoration will not happen overnight, as mines need to be cleared from major shipping lanes and supply chains will need time to return to normal."On June 17th, the Shanghai Stock Exchange announced that companies producing large-scale AI models will be eligible for the fifth set of listing standards for the Science and Technology Innovation Board (STAR Market). Issuers should hold a prominent and leading position in the field of large-scale AI models, occupy an important position in the industry chain, play a leading and exemplary role in the industry, and gain high recognition from relevant market players. The issuers large-scale AI model business or products should have a clear target market with significant current or potential demand, outstanding competitive advantages in R&D progress and key indicators, a large market space, and strong future growth potential. Issuers should formulate clear commercialization plans for their large-scale AI model business or products. Issuers should not have any matters that could have a significant adverse impact on their ability to continue operating, such as insufficient commercialization expectations for their large-scale model business or products.On June 17, the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) announced that, in order to implement the "Opinions of the China Securities Regulatory Commission on Setting Up a Science and Technology Innovation Growth Layer on the Science and Technology Innovation Board to Enhance the Inclusiveness and Adaptability of the System," further standardize the application of the fifth set of listing standards for science and technology enterprises on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, and support high-quality artificial intelligence large-scale model enterprises that have not yet formed a certain revenue scale to issue and list on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, the SSE has formulated the "Shanghai Stock Exchange Issuance and Listing Review Rules Application Guidelines No. 10 - Application of the Fifth Set of Listing Standards for Artificial Intelligence Large-Scale Model Enterprises on the Science and Technology Innovation Board," which is hereby issued and will take effect from the date of issuance.WTI and Brent crude oil prices are showing little fluctuation in the short term, currently trading at $75.75/barrel and $78.63/barrel respectively.

Copper Beats Gold This Week With Fears of A Rate Rise

Haiden Holmes

Feb 17, 2023 11:44

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Gold prices declined on Friday as stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation statistics and hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials stoked fears of more interest rate rises, while copper prices outpaced commodity markets this week due to confidence towards China.


The U.S. producer price index inflation increased more than anticipated in January, according to statistics released on Thursday. This follows a report on the consumer price index that indicated inflation in the world's largest economy remained sticky.


James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, stated that the central bank might resume raising interest rates at a more rapid pace and raised the possibility of a 50 basis point increase in March.


Meanwhile, Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Fed, stated that interest rates would likely rise over 5% as the Fed fights inflation, and that the central bank should have increased rates by more than 25 basis points at its February meeting.


The dollar and Treasury rates soared in response to their remarks, as investors flocked to the greenback in anticipation of higher and safer returns. This caused a substantial outflow from gold markets.


Spot gold decreased 0.2% to $1,833.67 per ounce, whilst gold futures declined 0.5% to $1,843.75 per ounce. Prices of the yellow metal were projected to fall between 1% to 1.7% this week, marking the third consecutive week of declines.


The likelihood of rising U.S. interest rates is unfavorable for non-yielding assets such as gold, as it increases their opportunity cost. Increasing interest rates also cause investors to select the dollar as a safe-haven asset due to its higher yields.


Other precious metals declined on Friday. Platinum prices dropped 0.6% to $920.30 per ounce, a three-month low, while silver futures sank 1.2% to $21.448 per ounce, a two-and-a-half month low.


Copper prices declined on Friday but were expected to end the week in the black due to optimism on China and probable supply disruptions.


Copper futures slipped 0.2% to $4.1137 a pound and were expected to rise 2.4% this week, their highest weekly performance since the beginning of January.


Copper was also poised to end a streak of three consecutive weekly losses as China, the world's top copper importer, signaled further stimulus measures to bolster economic development. Earlier this year, China loosened the majority of anti-COVID policies, which bolstered hopes for the nation's economic recovery.


A deteriorating conflict between the government of Panama and international copper miners threatens to halt the country's copper exports, so limiting supply and driving up prices.