• English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
Xinhu Futures Commentary: News that the White House has not yet made a decision on refined copper tariffs caused a sharp drop in copper prices. Both LME and Comex copper prices fell by more than 4% on Thursday. 1. The news caused significant short-term disruption, but whether the US copper tariffs will be implemented remains to be seen at the end of the month. Although copper prices fell sharply, the CL spread is still above $200/ton (the Comex weighted contract and LME spread was above $300/ton before the news), and Comex copper is still in a contango structure for longer-term contracts, which does not support a large outflow of US copper. Therefore, the market has largely priced in last nights news. 2. However, there are many macroeconomic events at present, oil prices have surged, US Treasury yields have risen again, and the Feds interest rate decision this month will all have significant impact on the current market. However, after the disruption to consumption related to the US copper tariffs subsides, the room for further decline in copper prices is limited, as the tight supply of refined copper in non-US markets will not change in the short term, and downstream buyers will actively replenish their stocks after the sharp drop in copper prices. Copper prices may rebound after macroeconomic sentiment eases. 3. Ultimately, it depends on the actual implementation of the tariffs at the end of the month. If the US imposes tariffs as scheduled, copper prices will resume their upward trend. Currently, the market is concerned that, as reported, there will be no progress on tariff policy. In this case, attention needs to be paid to the copper price spread (CL) and the structure of the US copper market. If the CL spread is positive and US copper maintains its C-shaped structure, the news will only be a minor negative factor, and the market largely priced it in last night. However, if the CL spread turns negative, it may be detrimental to copper prices. Its difficult to predict at this time because Trumps attitude is unpredictable, and market expectations for long-term copper tariffs are uncertain. (The commentary and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.)Futures Market News, September 11th: SC crude oil prices rose by 6.92%, currently trading at 821.6 yuan/barrel. Low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) prices rose by 6.33%, currently trading at 5581 yuan/ton. Fuel oil prices rose by 6.90%, currently trading at 4384 yuan/ton. Asphalt prices rose by 3.61%, currently trading at 5481 yuan/ton.The main platinum futures contract fell more than 6.00% intraday, currently trading at 430.60 yuan/gram.Russian e-commerce platform Ozon: A Ukrainian drone attacked Ozons logistics center in Saratov Oblast, Russia, causing a fire.Shanghai Gold 2610 futures fell 1.72% to 938.56 yuan/gram. Shanghai Silver 2610 futures fell 5.53% to 15,517 yuan/kilogram. Shanghai Platinum 2610 futures fell 5.42% to 433.3 yuan/gram. Shanghai Palladium 2610 futures fell 4.51% to 302.9 yuan/gram.

Copper Beats Gold This Week With Fears of A Rate Rise

Haiden Holmes

Feb 17, 2023 11:44

125.png


Gold prices declined on Friday as stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation statistics and hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials stoked fears of more interest rate rises, while copper prices outpaced commodity markets this week due to confidence towards China.


The U.S. producer price index inflation increased more than anticipated in January, according to statistics released on Thursday. This follows a report on the consumer price index that indicated inflation in the world's largest economy remained sticky.


James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, stated that the central bank might resume raising interest rates at a more rapid pace and raised the possibility of a 50 basis point increase in March.


Meanwhile, Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Fed, stated that interest rates would likely rise over 5% as the Fed fights inflation, and that the central bank should have increased rates by more than 25 basis points at its February meeting.


The dollar and Treasury rates soared in response to their remarks, as investors flocked to the greenback in anticipation of higher and safer returns. This caused a substantial outflow from gold markets.


Spot gold decreased 0.2% to $1,833.67 per ounce, whilst gold futures declined 0.5% to $1,843.75 per ounce. Prices of the yellow metal were projected to fall between 1% to 1.7% this week, marking the third consecutive week of declines.


The likelihood of rising U.S. interest rates is unfavorable for non-yielding assets such as gold, as it increases their opportunity cost. Increasing interest rates also cause investors to select the dollar as a safe-haven asset due to its higher yields.


Other precious metals declined on Friday. Platinum prices dropped 0.6% to $920.30 per ounce, a three-month low, while silver futures sank 1.2% to $21.448 per ounce, a two-and-a-half month low.


Copper prices declined on Friday but were expected to end the week in the black due to optimism on China and probable supply disruptions.


Copper futures slipped 0.2% to $4.1137 a pound and were expected to rise 2.4% this week, their highest weekly performance since the beginning of January.


Copper was also poised to end a streak of three consecutive weekly losses as China, the world's top copper importer, signaled further stimulus measures to bolster economic development. Earlier this year, China loosened the majority of anti-COVID policies, which bolstered hopes for the nation's economic recovery.


A deteriorating conflict between the government of Panama and international copper miners threatens to halt the country's copper exports, so limiting supply and driving up prices.