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January 9th - UK government bonds surged at the start of the year as the British government reduced long-term borrowing and weak inflation fueled market bets on a Bank of England rate cut. UK bonds rose across the board, with 10-year bonds poised for their biggest weekly gain since October, significantly outperforming less volatile German and US bonds. Craig Inches, head of rates and cash at Royal London Asset Management, said the prospect of a rate cut, coupled with reduced sales of long-term bonds, made UK bonds "very cheap" compared to similar assets. He stated, "UK bonds are an excellent place to put your money." The money market currently estimates a near 90% probability of another 25-basis-point rate cut by the Bank of England in April. The probability of a second rate cut by December has risen from less than 50% two weeks ago to 70%. He added, "We believe the Bank of England will have to cut rates again in February, which, combined with supply shortages, will lead to lower yields, a flattening yield curve, and allow UK bonds to outperform their global counterparts."Italys retail sales rose 1.3% year-on-year in November, up from 1.30% in the previous month.Italys seasonally adjusted retail sales rose 0.5% month-on-month in November, compared with 0.50% in the previous month.January 9th - Analysts point out that US job growth may slow in December due to companies remaining cautious about hiring amid import tariffs and increased investment in artificial intelligence. However, the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4.5%, which could support market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this month. The non-farm payroll report, expected to be released tonight, is anticipated to show that the US labor market remains in what economists and policymakers call a "no hiring, no laying off" mode. This would also confirm that the US economy is in a phase of jobless expansion. In the third quarter of last year, economic growth and worker productivity surged, partly attributed to a surge in AI spending. Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, stated, "This isnt entirely due to weak demand, as the economy appears to be performing well, but companies are very cautious about hiring new employees. This could be related to a willingness to control costs, perhaps due to tariff pressures, or perhaps because many companies believe that AI-driven automation will lead to productivity gains."On January 9th, Jefferies analysts wrote that Ferraris valuation is likely to remain passive in the short term. The companys valuation has contracted from a peak of 46.3 times its 2026 earnings at the end of February last year to the current 32.5 times. Ahead of the full-year earnings report and the setting of 2026 guidance in February, Jefferies believes that market consensus expectations may be slightly revised downwards. Earnings revisions will keep investor discussions cautious. Jefferies maintains a "hold" rating on Ferrari with a target price of €310. Ferraris share price fell 0.3% to €320.60.

Copper Beats Gold This Week With Fears of A Rate Rise

Haiden Holmes

Feb 17, 2023 11:44

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Gold prices declined on Friday as stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation statistics and hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials stoked fears of more interest rate rises, while copper prices outpaced commodity markets this week due to confidence towards China.


The U.S. producer price index inflation increased more than anticipated in January, according to statistics released on Thursday. This follows a report on the consumer price index that indicated inflation in the world's largest economy remained sticky.


James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, stated that the central bank might resume raising interest rates at a more rapid pace and raised the possibility of a 50 basis point increase in March.


Meanwhile, Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Fed, stated that interest rates would likely rise over 5% as the Fed fights inflation, and that the central bank should have increased rates by more than 25 basis points at its February meeting.


The dollar and Treasury rates soared in response to their remarks, as investors flocked to the greenback in anticipation of higher and safer returns. This caused a substantial outflow from gold markets.


Spot gold decreased 0.2% to $1,833.67 per ounce, whilst gold futures declined 0.5% to $1,843.75 per ounce. Prices of the yellow metal were projected to fall between 1% to 1.7% this week, marking the third consecutive week of declines.


The likelihood of rising U.S. interest rates is unfavorable for non-yielding assets such as gold, as it increases their opportunity cost. Increasing interest rates also cause investors to select the dollar as a safe-haven asset due to its higher yields.


Other precious metals declined on Friday. Platinum prices dropped 0.6% to $920.30 per ounce, a three-month low, while silver futures sank 1.2% to $21.448 per ounce, a two-and-a-half month low.


Copper prices declined on Friday but were expected to end the week in the black due to optimism on China and probable supply disruptions.


Copper futures slipped 0.2% to $4.1137 a pound and were expected to rise 2.4% this week, their highest weekly performance since the beginning of January.


Copper was also poised to end a streak of three consecutive weekly losses as China, the world's top copper importer, signaled further stimulus measures to bolster economic development. Earlier this year, China loosened the majority of anti-COVID policies, which bolstered hopes for the nation's economic recovery.


A deteriorating conflict between the government of Panama and international copper miners threatens to halt the country's copper exports, so limiting supply and driving up prices.