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On May 22, Nomura Securities predicted that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged until 2026 due to rising inflation and weakening support for policy easing from Federal Reserve officials, reducing the likelihood of a near-term rate cut. "Incoming Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh may still have the incentive to ease policy, but recent data and comments from Fed officials make us doubt his ability to convince a majority of the Federal Open Market Committee to support rate cuts," Nomura said in a report on May 21. The firm had previously projected 25-basis-point rate cuts in September and December of this year.According to the Financial Times, the French finance minister stated that countries cannot decide whether to release more oil reserves until they understand how long the conflict with Iran will last.According to the Financial Times, JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N) is seeking to reduce its $4 billion exposure to private equity-related loans.According to the Financial Times, the European film industry is urging EU regulators to review the deal between Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD.O) and Paramount.On May 22nd, Nomura Securities analysts wrote in a report that NIO (NIO.N) needs to launch more popular models to further support its sales, market share, and profit margins. They stated that investors will be watching the performance of the ES9, which will be launched next Wednesday. Given the positive customer feedback in the ES9 pre-sale data, Nomura remains optimistic about the company and expects NIO to achieve sequential improvement in deliveries and financial data in the second half of this year. NIO will launch a five-seat version of the ES8 in the second half of the year and plans to launch three to five new models annually in the coming years. Nomura maintains its buy rating on NIO with a target price of $8.60. The stocks American Depositary Receipts closed at $5.60 yesterday.

Bulls in EUR / USD Have Taken Out Significant Lows, Dropping Below 1.0570 So Far

Alina Haynes

Mar 01, 2023 11:51

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On Tuesday, the EUR / USD exchange rate hit a bottom of 1.0573, but that was not the only development. Early in the day, higher-than-expected French inflation figures drew investors to the Euro, driving short-term euro zone yields to their greatest levels in at least a decade. Then, at the start of the US trading session, the pair increased to 1.0645 as US data showed that, in contrast to several prior inflationary results, the Fed's rate rises were starting to have the intended impact.

 

According to ANZ Bank analysts, "Base effects from Russia's invasion of Ukraine last year should start to push annual inflation down from March, but the ECB will be mainly worried with consecutive monthly inflation rises." Inflation statistics for Germany and the euro zone will be released soon, giving the Governing Council meeting in March a more comprehensive inflation picture.

 

Unexpectedly, the US Consumer Sentiment dropped in February, dropping from 106 in January to 102.9, far below the anticipated 108.5. The US Dollar suffered as a result. In addition, the Chicago PMI business poll for February came in lower than expected, and the S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller national house price index rose only 5.8% year over year and dropped 0.5% in December.

 

Expectations regarding the Fed's interest rate policy will be heavily influenced by the US Nonfarm Payrolls employment statistics for February, which will be published on March 10, and the Consumer Price Index, which will be released on March 14. The ISM manufacturing PMI will likely continue to represent the sector's fragility in February (market expectation: 45.5), according to analysts at Westpac, and the final assessment of the S&P Global manufacturing PMI will probably support this as well. "Weaker demand is expected to keep construction spending down in January (market consensus: 0.2%);" Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, will also speak.


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