EUR/USD
1.03019
-0.057%
Gold
2674.16
-0.123%
Oil
76.771
-0.218%
USD/JPY
157.920
-0.042%
GBP/USD
1.22048
-0.089%
GBP/JPY
192.741
-0.093%
Real-time News
On January 15, CICC Research Report stated that under the neutral scenario, due to the huge amount of gold reserves that Asian central banks need to replenish, and the more complicated global situation after Trump took office, and the declining credibility of the US dollar system, we expect the central banks gold purchase speed to at least remain the same, that is, to maintain at around 1,000 tons/year. For US debt, we use the forecast results of the US Federal Budget Committee (CRFB) under the baseline scenario, and the US fiscal deficit will increase by about US$7.5 trillion in the next 10 years. We also assume that Trump will not cause inflation to get out of control, and CPI will stabilize at 3% in the future, fitting the gold price to rise to US$3,300/ounce in the next decade. Under the aggressive scenario, it is assumed that the Asian central bank wants to replenish its gold reserves faster and accelerate gold purchases to 1,500 tons/year (the central banks gold purchases too quickly may raise the gold price and increase the cost of gold purchases. We do not make excessive assumptions about the pace of central bank gold purchases). In terms of fiscal policy, we assume that Trump will significantly expand fiscal policy, reaching the upper limit of CRFBs forecast, that is, an additional increase of about $15 trillion in the US fiscal deficit. At the same time, we adopt PIIEs forecast of the inflation path for Trumps impact, that is, inflation will first rise to 9% and then drop to 3%, and calculate that the value center of gold in the next ten years will rise to $5,000/ounce. CICC recommends maintaining an overweight position in gold, moderately downplaying the short-term trading value of gold, and focusing on the long-term allocation value of gold.Japans broad money liquidity annual rate was 3.7% in December, compared with 3.2% in the previous month.Japans M3 money supply annual rate in December was 0.8%, compared with 0.70% in the previous month.Japans M2 money supply annual rate in December was 1.3%, compared with 1.20% in the previous month.South Koreas unemployment rate was 3.7% in December, in line with expectations of 2.9% and the previous value of 2.70%.
