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On October 25th, local time, the second round of ceasefire talks between Pakistan and Afghanistan began in Istanbul, Turkey. The talks were hosted by Turkey and held at an Istanbul hotel. The Pakistani delegation included the militarys director of operations and security and intelligence officials. The Afghan delegation was led by Deputy Interior Minister Rahmatullah Najeeb.On October 25th, Belgorod Oblast Governor Ilya Gladkov announced that Ukrainian armed forces had damaged the Belgorod Reservoir Dam. He stated that Ukrainian forces might attempt to attack and destroy the dam again. If this were to happen, several streets in riverbanks and settlements near Kharkiv Oblast would be flooded, impacting the lives of approximately 1,000 residents. Gladkov stated that local authorities have advised residents at risk of flooding to move to temporary relocation sites. The Ukrainian side has not yet responded to this request.On October 25th, Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Villeroy warned lawmakers debating the 2026 budget that the deficit must not exceed 4.8% of economic output to ensure France can cope with its growing debt burden. The French National Assembly is currently debating a draft budget that targets 4.7% GDP growth, but Prime Minister Jean-Claude Le Cornu has said the ultimate target should be within 5%, and he is seeking a compromise with opposition lawmakers. "It is absolutely necessary to keep the deficit below 3% between now and 2029, which would imply a maximum deficit of 4.8% next year," Villeroy de Villeroy said in an interview with La Croix. He also stated that France faces the risk of "progressive suffocation" from debt and that additional deficit spending will fail to stimulate economic growth. According to calculations by the Bank of France, if debt uncertainty is reduced, a 1% reduction in the household savings rate would boost economic growth by 0.4%. However, Villeroy de Villeroy stated that the French economy has strong momentum this year and growth will be "at least" as strong as the Banks forecast of 0.7%.On October 25th, the U.S. federal government shutdown entered its 24th day. More and more federal employees forced to take unpaid leave are facing the dilemma of not being able to pay their bills or mortgages, and many are forced to queue up at food banks for assistance. Jacobs, president of the local CDC union, stated that both parties are using the livelihoods of federal employees as bargaining chips in political negotiations, and that the current chaotic situation is unprecedented.On October 25, Lizhong Group responded to investors on an interactive platform, saying that the second phase of the companys project to produce 3.6 million ultra-lightweight aluminum alloy wheels annually in Mexico, with an output of 1.8 million wheels, has now been put into initial production. The company is actively promoting the running-in of the production line and the release of production capacity, striving to achieve the goal of full production and sales as soon as possible.

Bets on policy divergence between the BOE and BOJ heighten, pushing GBP/JPY above 162.00

Alina Haynes

Aug 22, 2022 14:55

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As investors prepare for a further widening of the policy gulf between the BOE and the BOJ, the GBP/JPY pair has broken firmly above the 162.00 mark (BOJ). Assuming the cross maintains its footing above the pivotal 162.00 level, further gains are likely.

 

As a result of a significant increase in Average Earnings in the United Kingdom zone, policymakers at the Bank of England have decided to hike interest rates without delay. As for labor costs, they came in at 4.7%, which is higher than both the 4.5% forecast and the 4.4% number that was reported earlier.

 

Earlier, Bank of England policymakers fretted over low wage growth in households. The United Kingdom is located in an area where inflation is rising rapidly; as a result, wage growth has been sluggish as workers try to compensate for rising wages. For this reason, the quantitative tightening measures were not unilaterally implemented by Bank of England personnel. Governor Andrew Bailey of the Bank of England is pleased with the recent surge in the labor cost index, which he will use to his advantage when formulating monetary policy.

 

The new estimated number of UK claimants is 10.5k, down from both the prior announcement's 26.8k and the expected 32k. The unemployment rate has stayed stable at 3.8%.

 

The currency bulls in Tokyo showed no buying activity despite an uptick in the National Consumer Price Index (CPI). Both the median forecast of 2.2% and the most recent reading of 2.4% were surpassed by the actual economic data, which came in at 2.6%. An inflation rate above 2% for an extended period of time may eventually force the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to take a neutral posture, but policy divergence is going to increase.

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