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Guatemalan government: The tariffs announced by the United States violate the provisions of the Central American Free Trade Agreement.Japans five-year government bond yield fell 9.5 basis points to 0.98%, the lowest level since February 10.Futures news on April 3, crude oil trend fluctuated narrowly, finished product shipments weakened, fuel oil market players held prices and waited and watched, downstream orders were dominated by rigid demand after phased stocking up, and refinery shipments were lukewarm. It is expected that the overall market trading will be stable today, with a few narrow adjustments.On April 3, CICC pointed out that Trump announced "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2, which exceeded market expectations. Reciprocal tariffs use a combination of "carpet-style" tariffs and "one country, one tariff rate", covering more than 60 major economies. Calculations show that if these tariffs are fully implemented, the effective tariff rate of the United States may rise sharply by 22.7 percentage points from 2.4% in 2024 to 25.1%, which will exceed the tariff level after the implementation of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in 1930. CICC believes that reciprocal tariffs may increase uncertainty and market concerns and aggravate the risk of "stagflation" in the US economy. Calculations show that tariffs may push up US PCE inflation by 1.9 percentage points and reduce real GDP growth by 1.3 percentage points, although they may also bring in more than $700 billion in fiscal revenue. Faced with the risk of "stagflation", the Federal Reserve can only choose to wait and see, and it may be difficult to cut interest rates in the short term. This will further increase the risk of economic downturn and increase the pressure on the market to adjust downward.RBA Financial Stability Assessment Report: US tariffs may have a "chilling effect" on investment and spending.

Bears in the XAG/USD pair are testing $23.50 in Silver Price Analysis

Daniel Rogers

Dec 29, 2022 11:45

截屏2022-09-23 下午2.30.27.png

 

As early Thursday morning approaches, the silver price (XAG/USD) remains low at $23.55 as bears probe the monthly support line. Notable is the fact that the shiny metal dropped the most in two weeks the day before.

 

Given the metal's prolonged fall below the prior support line from December 16 and the bearish MACD signals, the XAG/USD price is likely to breach the immediate support line near $23.50.

 

However, a two-week-old horizontal range including the 100-SMA, between $23.35 and $23.45, appears difficult for silver bears to penetrate.

 

If the commodities price breaks the $23.35 support, it is not impossible to see a decline to $23.00.

 

After that, the market will focus on the mid-month swing low of $22.55 and the monthly bottom around $22.00.

 

In the meantime, recovery moves may initially target the two-year-old support-turned-resistance line close to the $24.00 round number before aiming for the double peaks surrounding $24.30.

 

However, it should be highlighted that the XAG/USD rise above $24.30 will not hesitate to approach the $25.00 round number. However, April's peak around $26.25 could pose a threat to Silver buyers in the future.

 

Overall, the Silver price is likely to stay bearish, but further declines are contingent on a breach below $23.35.

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