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February 28 - UN Secretary-General António Guterres spokesperson, Stéphane Dujarric, stated on the 27th that Guterres is deeply concerned about the escalating violence between Afghanistan and Pakistan and its impact on civilians. He called on both sides to immediately cease hostilities and resolve their differences through diplomatic means.European Council: Urges Afghanistan to engage in dialogue with Pakistan.European Council: The EU reiterates that Afghan territory must not be used to threaten or attack other countries.The European Council called on all parties to immediately de-escalate the situation and cease hostilities following a sharp increase in violence in Afghanistan and Pakistan.Gaza Situation: 1. Market news: Gazas civil defense department reports at least 5 deaths from Israeli airstrikes. 2. The Israeli military claims to have killed several militants in southern Gaza. Iran Situation: 1. The Iranian military says it will respond "devastatingly" to US aggression. 2. Omans Foreign Minister: Iran has agreed not to possess "nuclear materials capable of making nuclear bombs." 3. Trump: Dissatisfied with negotiations with Iran. 4. The US aircraft carrier USS Ford arrives in Israel. 5. Chairman of the Iranian Parliaments Security and Foreign Policy Committee: Negotiations are limited to uranium enrichment; Iran will not relinquish its due rights. 6. Market news: All US Air Force refueling aircraft have withdrawn from Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. 7. According to CNN: There is no intelligence indicating that Iran is planning to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of striking the United States. 8. Istanbul Airport data shows that three flights from Istanbul to Tehran, Iran, were canceled on Friday. 9. According to the Wall Street Journal: Local diplomats revealed that foreign embassies in Israel have developed contingency plans to deal with Iranian attacks. 10. Trump revealed that the US and Iran will continue negotiations and warned that "sometimes we have to fight." Trump reiterated that Iran cannot possess nuclear weapons. 11. Omans Foreign Minister met with the US Vice President, stating that US-Iran negotiations had made "unprecedented progress." 12. Multiple countries issued evacuation warnings from the Middle East: ① The US State Department ordered non-essential diplomats to evacuate Israel and Iraq. ② The US Ambassador to Israel warned the mission to leave Israel today. ③ The Chinese Foreign Ministry reminded Chinese citizens not to travel to Iran. ④ The Kazakh Foreign Ministry urged its citizens to leave Iran and temporarily avoid traveling to the country. ⑤ Italy urged its citizens to leave Iran and remain vigilant throughout the Middle East. ⑥ The British Foreign Office advised against travel to Israel and the Palestinian territories except for essential travel. ⑦ Greece advised its citizens to avoid travel to Iran and the Israeli-Palestinian region. ⑧ The French Foreign Ministry advised French citizens not to travel to Israel, Jerusalem, and the West Bank. Other: 1. The Afghan government claimed that Pakistani airstrikes hit Kabul and other areas. 2. Pakistani state television claimed that several Taliban strongholds were destroyed in the attacks. 3. The US State Department ordered non-essential diplomats to evacuate Israel. 4. Saudi Arabias Al Arabiya television, citing security sources, reported on the 27th that a large number of American citizens left Iraq via Baghdad International Airport in the past 24 hours. 5. Maersk diverted some of its ships to routes south of Africa. 6. The U.S. State Department announced that Secretary of State Marco Rubio will visit Israel from March 2nd to 3rd to discuss issues related to Iran, Lebanon, and Gaza.

At the Tokyo open, the USD/JPY bulls pick up speed and aim for 138.00

Alina Haynes

Jul 14, 2022 12:00

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The USD/JPY pair is now trading at 138.00, up 0.44 percent from the day's beginning price of 137.28 and reaching a high of 137.96. The dollar is benefiting from central bank divergence at play.

 

The US dollar hit a 20-year high, according to the DXY index, which compares the dollar to a basket of currencies. After figures on Wednesday showed that US consumer price inflation hit a 40-and-a-half-year high in June, the euro dropped below parity. As gasoline and food costs continued to rise, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased to 3% last month, above the 1.1 percent forecast by the experts surveyed by Reuters.

 

However, "several Districts reported growing symptoms of a slowdown in demand, and contacts in five Districts voiced worries about the increased probability of a recession," according to data from the Fed's Beige Book on regional economic conditions. Bostic, the president of the Atlanta Fed, said that "everything is on the table" for the July policy decision, which may indicate a 100bp increase. The rising rate of inflation worries him.

 

Rates on the US bond market fluctuated after inflation data that was greater than expected. The long end increased while the short end decreased. The US 2-10yr curve is currently 22bps inverted, according to analysts at Westpac, "given the expectation of aggressive Fed tightening and the risks to the long-term economic outlook." While yields on 10-year government bonds declined from 2.95 percent to 2.90 percent, rates on 2-year bonds rose from 3.05 percent to 3.21 percent before leveling off at 3.13 percent.

 

Additionally, JPY net short positions increased significantly last week. The hawkish stances of other central banks have prompted speculation that the BoJ may have been obliged to alter its YCC policy as early as last month's meeting, according to Rabobank analysts. The BoJ kept its dovish approach, although there will probably be more talk of a shift in the coming months. This has given the JPY some support, along with inflows into safe havens.