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Real-time News
November 10th - On November 9th local time, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) reported that more than 15 air traffic control centers in the United States reported staff shortages that day. The FAA announcement indicated that some facilities at some of the busiest airports in the U.S., including New York, Washington D.C., Atlanta, Dallas, and Chicago, were affected. It is understood that staff shortages may force air traffic control agencies to reduce the number of flights at certain airports to maintain safety, potentially causing widespread delays.On November 10th, Goldman Sachs stated that a growing number of US investors are buying Japanese stocks, particularly those focused on technology and artificial intelligence, attracted by their strong returns relative to US stocks. Bruce Kirk, Goldman Sachs chief Japan equity strategist, said, "The pace of US capital inflows has reached its fastest level since Abenomics." He added that active participation by US investors in Japanese equities has reached its highest level since October 2022. This influx of US funds reflects the strong performance of Japanese equities this year, boosted by the appreciation of the yen and optimism surrounding Sanae Takashis stimulus policies. In dollar terms, the Nikkei 225 index has risen approximately 30% this year, far exceeding the S&P 500s 14% gain. Kirk believes there is still room for further foreign capital inflows, as global investors net holdings in Japanese equities remain well below the peak levels seen during "Abenomics," and continued global investors need for asset diversification may also support this trend.On November 10th, the Ukrainian State Electricity Company announced that due to Russias continued attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities, most regions of Ukraine will experience 24-hour power rationing on November 10th. The company stated that the rationing will last from midnight to 11:59 PM, and industrial users power consumption will also be limited during the same period. The Ukrainian government also urged the public to conserve electricity during peak hours.On November 10th, Bezoss space company Blue Origin planned to launch its New Glenn rocket from Cape Canaveral, Florida, on Sunday, a key test in the startups path to challenging SpaceXs dominance. The approximately 97.5-meter-tall rocket will carry two spacecraft built by Rocket Lab to Mars. This mission marks New Glenns first mission for NASA. New Glenn successfully completed its maiden flight in January, reaching orbit, but its boosters failed to land. Similar to SpaceXs Falcon series, New Glenn is designed to be partially reusable, with boosters capable of multiple launches, thus reducing costs.On November 10th, New York Federal Reserve President Williams stated that financial pressures faced by low- and middle-income Americans could threaten the resilience of the U.S. economy, even as wealthier families benefit from the stock market boom. In an interview, Williams said the Feds December interest rate decision "will be a balancing act." He noted, "Inflation remains high and shows no signs of declining," but the U.S. economy "still exhibits a degree of resilience." Nevertheless, many Americans are still struggling with housing and living costs. There are signs that "low- and middle-income families are facing some constraints in terms of affordability," posing a risk to consumer confidence and spending. Williams also rejected calls to modify the Feds benchmark interest rate mechanism, stating that expectations of productivity gains driven by artificial intelligence are supporting the market, but he is concerned about potential over-investment and a stock market bubble.

As the US dollar rises from the dead, bears enter the EUR/USD market

Alina Haynes

Oct 20, 2022 15:25

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In Tokyo, the EUR/USD exchange rate is trading at a premium due to a stronger US dollar that has been gaining ground since the middle of the week. Constant political turmoil in the United Kingdom and hawkish monetary policy in the United States have depressed investor sentiment. The euro has risen from a two-week low against the dollar to trade at 0.9765 today.

 

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rocketed to 14-year highs, while the dollar touched another 32-year high against the yen, approaching a level where the Bank of Japan and Ministry of Finance may intervene, according to some traders. Overall, the markets are uneasy, which is increasing demand for the safe-haven U.S. dollar as traders predict a 75-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve on November 1 and 2, one week before to the Fed's blackout period. In addition, a hike of 50 to 75 basis points is anticipated for December.

 

"Risk sentiment deteriorated overnight. As analysts at ANZ Bank stated, the market's initial relief at the UK's decision to repeal the majority of their mini-budget was replaced with anxiety as the focus returned to the global inflation backdrop and the aggressive rate hikes that will be required to combat an increasingly persistent inflation pulse. In this regard, the outlook for the British economy remains uncertain, which may distract some of the spotlight from the eurozone, which has dominated market focus and negative feedback loops for the majority of 2022. Near the end of September, the euro reached a high of 0.9280 and is in bullish zone as long as it remains above 0.8600. "How the Eurozone performs this winter will be a significant element in determining whether the EUR can gain momentum against the GBP in the coming months," said Rabobank analysts.

 

"We have been pessimistic on GBP for many months, and although there has been a lot of negative news recently, the UK's economic and political outlooks remain too uncertain for us to become bullish on GBP. A few days ago, our three-month forecast of 1.06 seemed more distant. However, we have not yet seen sufficient good news to change this upward.

 

The second estimate of the September Consumer Price Index for the European Union was revised downward to 9.9% YoY, just below the first estimate of 10%. The core inflation rate was confirmed to be 4.8%.

 

In the interim, the net long positions for the euro decreased after reaching their highest levels since early June the previous week. Rabobank analysts noted, "While ECB pronouncements have boosted the chance of future rate hikes in the coming months, concerns are developing about the impact of rising energy costs on the economy (and the burden on Germany's industrial sector in particular)."