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On March 15th, Matt Reed, Vice President of the geopolitical and energy consultancy Foreign Reports, stated that an attack on Kharg Island could trigger Iranian retaliation against Gulf oil-producing countries. He said, "Iran will retaliate in kind." The United States warned on Friday that if Iran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz, Kharg Islands oil facilities could become the next target. Reed warned that the longer the conflict continues, the harder it will be to find alternative energy supplies. "At least 10 million barrels of oil are trapped in the Gulf every day, plus more than 4 million barrels of refined petroleum products and tens of billions of cubic feet of liquefied natural gas, with no easy alternatives." The International Energy Agency has announced the largest emergency oil reserve release in history, with 32 member countries planning to release approximately 400 million barrels of oil. However, Reed believes this measure will have limited effect, stating, "By the time the oil gets to the market, it may be too little, too late." He described it as nothing more than a "band-aid."On March 15th, local time, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement saying that in the past 48 hours, the US and Israel had launched attacks on several civilian industrial facilities in Iran, resulting in the deaths of several workers. The statement said that after setbacks in its confrontation with Iran, the US and Israel have turned to attacking non-military industrial facilities. Iran warned that US companies in the region should withdraw from their facilities and urged nearby residents to stay away from industrial areas with US capital involvement to avoid potential attacks.The Swiss government has discussed the US request for military overflight. In accordance with the principle of neutrality, the Federal Council rejected two requests related to the war with Iran.Local officials said operations at the Lanaz refinery in Iraq’s Erbil province have been suspended until the fire is extinguished and the damage is assessed.On March 15th, Colombian Energy Minister Edwin Palma posted on the X platform that Venezuelas state-owned oil company PDVSA intends to terminate its contract with Colombias state-owned oil company Ecopetrol regarding the Antonio Ricardo pipeline, citing insufficient investment in its maintenance. Palma stated that the Colombian government plans to meet with the US government next Monday to discuss lifting sanctions in an effort to normalize commercial relations with Venezuela. Palma also indicated that Colombia has approved a license to resume imports of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from Venezuela at a rate of 1.26 million gallons per month.

As a result of the Fed's hawkish stance, the AUD/USD has fallen below 0.6600, shifting market focus to PMI data

Alina Haynes

Sep 22, 2022 14:57

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The Australian dollar was trading below the 0.6600 US dollar support level during the Tokyo trading session. As a result of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the asset is tumbling like a pack of cards (Fed). The two-day downtrend has resumed, and the asset is now trading below the round-number support of 0.6600. The asset is expected to have support close to the 0.65 level.

 

Investors believed the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 75 basis points (bps) for a third time in a row. Volatile hawkish counsel has had an effect on risk-sensitive and commodity-linked currencies. The Fed has put off job growth, economic prospects, the housing market, and demand for durable goods in order to maintain price stability, which is its core goal.

 

The target for maturity rates is 4.6%, which is significantly higher than the previous peak of 3.6%. Because of this, the distribution of loans will be slowed and the market liquidity will decrease. Lenders may also see an increase in their delinquency fees as a result. Since fewer loans are being made available, some companies may delay expansion plans.

 

The financial markets in Australia will be closed on Thursday for National Mourning Day. Accordingly, the performance of the US dollar index will continue to be scrutinized closely (DXY). The S&P Australian PMI data is expected to be issued on Friday, and investors will continue to keep a close eye on it. It is expected that the Manufacturing PMI would rise from 53.8 to 54.0. While we expect the Services PMI to drop from its current 50 to a much more modest 47.7.