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On September 5th, U.S. Commerce Secretary Andrew Lutnick was appointed to review transactions between the Pentagon and companies under Cerberus Capital Management to address potential conflicts of interest. According to U.S. officials, the Department of Defense has assigned Lutnick to review these transactions. Cerberus is a private equity firm founded by Deputy Secretary of Defense Stephen Feinberg, with significant investments in defense and national security, including several companies that have received Pentagon contracts. After joining the government, Feinberg transferred his business assets to a trust for his adult children. Reports indicate that Lutnicks review of arrangements involving Cerberus is intended to exceed existing Department of Defense ethical guidelines. However, Lutnick previously led Cantor Fitzgerald, which has had a business relationship with Cerberus for over a decade and helped manage related investment funds. Some of Cerberus defense subsidiaries recently secured Pentagon contracts, including a $10 billion, 26-year Army helicopter pilot training contract for M1 Support Services, and a $90 million defense contract for hypersonic testing company Stratolaunch. It remains unclear whether Lutnik reviewed these transactions, and the specific scope of his review.Fitch: The rating upgrade reflects the strengthening of Portugals public finances, including the expected downward trend in government debt.Barclays: Oil outflows from the Middle East are higher than in the early stages of the conflict, but the market remains in a state of shortage, and the inventory buffer is now greatly reduced.According to Al Arabiya TV: Lebanese official data shows that Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon tonight have killed three people.On September 5th, stronger-than-expected US August jobs data triggered renewed bets on a possible Federal Reserve rate hike, but Wall Street risk assets did not show significant panic. Data showed increased resilience in the job market, leading traders to raise their expectations for a rate hike at the Feds September 16th meeting. US Treasuries experienced a sell-off, the dollar strengthened, and the S&P 500 fell on Friday but still recorded a weekly gain. Unlike previous rate hikes that often triggered capital outflows, this round of bond market adjustments has not yet spread to other risk assets. Credit spreads remain low, limiting pressure on corporate bonds and stock index markets. JPMorgan Chase stated that US Treasury liquidity has deteriorated significantly, but corporate bond ETFs and stock index futures markets have not yet experienced similar tension. Market resilience mainly stems from economic growth and corporate profits, especially as AI investment continues to drive large-scale capital expenditures by technology companies. Analysts point out that the market is currently more focused on whether yields will rise rapidly than on the jobs data itself. The market focus will shift to inflation data and whether the Fed will reconsider its rate hike path due to inflationary pressures. If yields rise further rapidly, it could force investors to reduce their risk exposure.

As US NFP steals the spotlight, we expect the XAU/USD to drop to roughly $1,700 in the near future

Daniel Rogers

Aug 29, 2022 14:38

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After setting a new monthly low of $1,723.44 in the Tokyo session, the gold price (XAU/USD) is now indicating a less confident downward trend. The Federal Reserve (Fed) opted for price stability over growth on Friday at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, therefore the precious metal is projected to continue its downward trajectory for some time.

 

The Federal Reserve has little leeway to decrease the pace of its interest rate hikes in August due to signals of inflationary pressures. While economic activities in the United States showed significant slowing down because of decreasing liquidity in the economy. Market veterans anticipated that the Fed would slow the pace at which it was rising interest rates in light of the two factors. To counteract this, the Fed prioritized maintaining price stability.

 

The future of the United States hinges on the information provided by the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. We anticipate the economic statistics to come in at 290k, which is a decrease from the 528k reported in the previous release. The slowdown in job growth should not be seen as a huge concern by investors. Since the US economy has been at full employment for the past six months, much of the room for new jobs has been eliminated.

 

Gold prices have fallen below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (set at $1,729.35 from the low of $1,680.91 on July 21 to the high of $1,807.93 on August 10) on an hourly time frame. Both the 20-period and the 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are trending downward, adding further filters to the downside at $1,738.08 and $1,745.84, respectively. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has moved into the negative zone of 20.00-40.00, indicating further declines ahead.