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As US Inflation Data Looms, the USD/CAD Tracks Oil's Failure To Move Above 1.3300

Alina Haynes

Feb 14, 2023 14:44

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The USD/CAD shows the market's caution as traders anticipate Tuesday morning's release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January. After a two-day decline, the Canadian dollar-U.S. dollar pair holds a position near 1.3330.

 

However, the most recent decrease may be a result of the US Dollar's inability to maintain its earlier weekly gains in the face of falling US Treasury bond yields. Nonetheless, the declining price of Oil, Canada's principal export, and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish pronouncements are enticing USD/CAD bulls.

 

Concerns about additional releases from U.S. strategic petroleum reserves have kept the price of WTI crude oil below $79,50 a barrel (SPR). According to Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais, the price of black gold disregards earlier reports anticipating a supply constraint as a result of Russia's threat to reduce output and the anticipation of increasing energy demand.

 

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman reportedly told Reuters that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates until they reach a suitable level to return inflation to the target rate. President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Patrick Harker, dismissed speculations of a 2023 Fed rate cut. Nonetheless, the official stated, "The Fed is unlikely to decrease interest rates this year, but could do so in 2024 if inflation begins to decline."

 

Notably, it appears that the recent decrease in US inflation expectations from a multi-day high has weighed on US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates decrease from monthly highs to 2.31 percent and 2.44 percent, respectively.

 

As Wall Street closes in the green, S&P 500 Futures follow the sentiment with slight gains, which weigh on the US Dollar. As a result, 10-year US Treasury note yields decline by around two basis points to 3.69 percent at the latest.

 

Since recent Federal Reserve (Fed) pronouncements indicating potential rate hikes appear muted, USD/CAD traders should keep a close eye on the US CPI data in the near future. In addition, discussions regarding the Fed's policy shift are approaching, so any negative US inflation data will not hesitate to send the Loonie pair down. Likewise, monitoring the price of oil is vital.

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