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The United Business Group of Thailand maintains its GDP growth forecast for Thailand in 2026 at between 1.2% and 1.6%.On May 19th, Naomi Fink, Chief Global Strategist at Amova Asset Management, stated in a report that Japans stronger-than-expected first-quarter GDP data reflects an improvement in the breadth and quality of economic growth, particularly a rebound in domestic demand. She noted that the broad-based growth in domestic demand indicates that inflation is spreading. Fink stated that Japans export growth remained strong in the first quarter, supported by a global technology spending boom, although it may face pressure in the coming quarters as the effects of the Middle East energy shock spread to the global economy and worsen terms of trade. She suggested that the market will focus on whether government investment is focused on long-term capacity building rather than crowding out private investment, and will examine the credibility of public spending plans in differentiating between public and private investment priorities.On May 19th, Tencent WorkBuddy officially launched its One-Person Company Incentive Program, offering 30 million WorkBuddy Credits (built-in model usage credits, worth millions of yuan) to global entrepreneurs, OPCs, and other deep WorkBuddy users. Users receiving this incentive can directly use their AI credits within WorkBuddy to help improve efficiency and innovation in their own businesses.On May 19th, it was reported that Ronshine China (03301.HK)s domestic debt restructuring plan has still not been launched as scheduled. Recently, Ronshine (Fujian) Investment Group Co., Ltd., the main domestic bond issuer of Ronshine China, issued an announcement stating that a bondholder meeting for eight bonds, including "H20 Ronshine 1," is scheduled for May 20th to review proposals regarding exemption from notification deadlines, extending grace periods, and early cash repayment arrangements. Recently, Ronshine again informed investors that this extension of the grace period is to allow more time for the formulation of the restructuring plan, which is expected to be launched in June this year. The restructuring plan offers investors options including cash, long-term bonds, and asset trust units, with the trust assets having third-party valuation reports.Samsung Electronics shares narrowed their losses to 1.3%, after falling as much as 4.3% earlier.

As US Inflation Data Looms, the USD/CAD Tracks Oil's Failure To Move Above 1.3300

Alina Haynes

Feb 14, 2023 14:44

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The USD/CAD shows the market's caution as traders anticipate Tuesday morning's release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January. After a two-day decline, the Canadian dollar-U.S. dollar pair holds a position near 1.3330.

 

However, the most recent decrease may be a result of the US Dollar's inability to maintain its earlier weekly gains in the face of falling US Treasury bond yields. Nonetheless, the declining price of Oil, Canada's principal export, and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish pronouncements are enticing USD/CAD bulls.

 

Concerns about additional releases from U.S. strategic petroleum reserves have kept the price of WTI crude oil below $79,50 a barrel (SPR). According to Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais, the price of black gold disregards earlier reports anticipating a supply constraint as a result of Russia's threat to reduce output and the anticipation of increasing energy demand.

 

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman reportedly told Reuters that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates until they reach a suitable level to return inflation to the target rate. President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Patrick Harker, dismissed speculations of a 2023 Fed rate cut. Nonetheless, the official stated, "The Fed is unlikely to decrease interest rates this year, but could do so in 2024 if inflation begins to decline."

 

Notably, it appears that the recent decrease in US inflation expectations from a multi-day high has weighed on US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates decrease from monthly highs to 2.31 percent and 2.44 percent, respectively.

 

As Wall Street closes in the green, S&P 500 Futures follow the sentiment with slight gains, which weigh on the US Dollar. As a result, 10-year US Treasury note yields decline by around two basis points to 3.69 percent at the latest.

 

Since recent Federal Reserve (Fed) pronouncements indicating potential rate hikes appear muted, USD/CAD traders should keep a close eye on the US CPI data in the near future. In addition, discussions regarding the Fed's policy shift are approaching, so any negative US inflation data will not hesitate to send the Loonie pair down. Likewise, monitoring the price of oil is vital.

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