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July 26 – According to a report by The New York Times, US President Trump has shelved plans for a significant escalation of military action against Iran. Trump is concerned that an escalation could dangerously deplete the Pentagons already dwindling stockpile of Patriot missile interceptors and other air defense munitions in the Middle East. The report states that government officials indicated that the strain on interceptor stockpiles is one of many factors making a resumption of large-scale military action extremely risky. Furthermore, Trump and his senior advisors are also uneasy about the potential for a escalation of the Middle East conflict, the possible alienation of key Gulf allies vulnerable to Iranian attacks, a global economic shock, and a worsening energy and refugee crisis.Tibo, product lead at OpenAI: ChatGPT Work has officially surpassed Codex in the number of active users.On July 26th, Huang Renxun discussed the US-China AI competition in an interview with foreign media on July 25th. He stated that outstanding talent will always find excellent solutions, and China is destined to produce excellent AI technology; therefore, China should continue to learn from and cooperate with them.July 26 – The latest epidemic report released by the Ministry of Health of the Democratic Republic of Congo on July 25 shows that the cumulative number of confirmed cases of Ebola in the country has risen to 3,075, with 1,354 deaths. Data shows that as of July 24, a total of 755 patients were receiving isolation or hospitalization treatment, and the cumulative number of recovered cases was 556. The outbreak has spread to five provinces: Ituri, North Kivu, South Kivu, Haut-Uele, and Chowpo.On July 26, Australian Prime Minister Barnes stated that he would raise the issue of tariffs with US President Trump. This comes after Washington imposed new tariffs on trading partners, including Australia. The Labor government, led by Barnes, has called the tariffs unreasonable and expressed its desire for their removal. When asked if he would discuss the issue with Trump, Barnes replied, "Of course." "We will raise this issue at all levels of the Australia-US relationship, and in fact, we have already done so."

As Oil Bulls Relax And US Inflation Is Monitored, USD/CAD Recovers Around 1.3350

Daniel Rogers

Feb 13, 2023 14:42

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The USD/CAD rebounds from a five-week low. After a solid employment report and an increase in oil prices, Loonie bears joined the market. Before the release of the US CPI, aggressive Fed comments and good US data test sellers.

 

After falling the most in five weeks the previous day, the USD/CAD is fluctuating around the middle of the 1.3300s in the early Asian session on Monday. Ahead of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, the Loonie/U.S. dollar pair exhibits market consolidation amid mixed US signals.

 

After a strong Canadian employment report and a rise in WTI crude oil prices, the Loonie pair dropped the most since the beginning of January.

 

WTI crude oil reached a new monthly high of $80.48 the day before, despite market rumors that Russia may reduce oil production by 500,000 barrels in March to counter European penalties.

 

The Net Change in Employment for January in Canada increased to 150K from 15K expected and 69.2K revised. The unemployment rate was 5.0%, not 5.1%.

 

As evidenced by BoC Governor Tiff Macklem's dovish comments, the stronger Canadian employment report makes it tougher for the Bank of Canada to pause its rate hike trajectory, benefiting USD/CAD bears.

 

Nevertheless, preliminary US University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment for February increased to 66.4 from 65.0 anticipated and 64.9 previously. This month, the UoM announced that inflation forecasts for the coming year jumped to 4.2% from 3.9% in January and 4.4% in December. UoM said that long-term inflation estimates (5-year) stayed at 2.9% for the third consecutive month and remained within a narrow band of 2.9% to 3.1% for 18 of the last 19 months. Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics adjusted the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) from -0.1% to 0.1% based on revised seasonal adjustment variables.

 

Recent contradicting statements from Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) President Thomas Barkin and the US-China dispute over "unidentified objects" appear to challenge sentiment and boost the USD due to its safe-haven status.

 

S&P 500 Futures decrease as interest rates on US Treasury bonds increase, benefiting the US Dollar and USD/CAD buyers ahead of critical US inflation data.

 

Due to reports of a Fed policy shift, USD/CAD traders should monitor risk catalysts before to the January US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on Tuesday.


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