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On May 19th, futures market news reported that recent rainy weather in producing areas has limited corn shipments for most traders, leading to a temporary tightening of effective supply. Some companies have slightly raised prices to encourage purchases. While some traders in producing areas still have sales needs after the weather improves, downstream companies are focusing on the new wheat harvest and awaiting relevant policy grain auctions, resulting in weak enthusiasm for corn purchases. However, the trading sector is supported by costs and has limited acceptance of low prices; therefore, mainstream market prices are expected to remain stable in the near term.Hong Kong-listed auto stocks fluctuated and weakened, with NIO-SW (09866.HK) falling more than 5% in the afternoon, Li Auto (02015.HK) falling more than 4%, and XPeng Group (09868.HK), Leapmotor (09863.HK) and others following suit.May 19th Futures News: Economies.com analysts latest view: Spot silver prices fell in recent intraday trading after failing to break through the $78.35 resistance level, which remained firm, causing prices to retreat again. This movement occurred against the backdrop of a clear corrective bearish wave dominating the market in the short term. Meanwhile, the 50-day moving average (EMA) continues to exert negative dynamic pressure on prices, with spot silver prices consistently below it, further reducing the likelihood of a full rebound in the short term. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has begun to show a negative crossover after the price action became extremely overbought, indicating a bearish divergence signal, which increases the probability of continued selling pressure and further declines.May 19th, Futures News: Economies.com analysts latest view: WTI crude oil futures prices have been volatile in recent intraday trading, attempting to accumulate upward momentum to help break through the key resistance level of $104.00. Under the influence of the dominant short-term bullish trend, prices continue to benefit from trading above the 50-day EMA, providing dynamic support and enhancing the possibility of further gains. This performance is attributed to the easing of overbought conditions previously indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is now beginning to release new positive signals supporting the upward price movement. This further strengthens the positive momentum around the price and increases the probability of attempting to break through the current resistance level.May 19th, Futures News: Economies.com analysts latest view: Brent crude oil futures have experienced significant volatility during recent trading sessions, primarily constrained by the solid support at the key resistance level of $109.00. Currently, the price is attempting to accumulate upward momentum to break through this resistance and continues to trade above the 50-day EMA, further strengthening the short-term bullish trend and overall stability. Simultaneously, the price is moving along a support trendline, further solidifying the upward bias. Furthermore, after the previous overbought condition eased, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has begun to show a positive golden cross signal. If momentum continues to strengthen, this signal is expected to provide support for further price increases.

As Oil Bulls Relax And US Inflation Is Monitored, USD/CAD Recovers Around 1.3350

Daniel Rogers

Feb 13, 2023 14:42

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The USD/CAD rebounds from a five-week low. After a solid employment report and an increase in oil prices, Loonie bears joined the market. Before the release of the US CPI, aggressive Fed comments and good US data test sellers.

 

After falling the most in five weeks the previous day, the USD/CAD is fluctuating around the middle of the 1.3300s in the early Asian session on Monday. Ahead of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, the Loonie/U.S. dollar pair exhibits market consolidation amid mixed US signals.

 

After a strong Canadian employment report and a rise in WTI crude oil prices, the Loonie pair dropped the most since the beginning of January.

 

WTI crude oil reached a new monthly high of $80.48 the day before, despite market rumors that Russia may reduce oil production by 500,000 barrels in March to counter European penalties.

 

The Net Change in Employment for January in Canada increased to 150K from 15K expected and 69.2K revised. The unemployment rate was 5.0%, not 5.1%.

 

As evidenced by BoC Governor Tiff Macklem's dovish comments, the stronger Canadian employment report makes it tougher for the Bank of Canada to pause its rate hike trajectory, benefiting USD/CAD bears.

 

Nevertheless, preliminary US University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment for February increased to 66.4 from 65.0 anticipated and 64.9 previously. This month, the UoM announced that inflation forecasts for the coming year jumped to 4.2% from 3.9% in January and 4.4% in December. UoM said that long-term inflation estimates (5-year) stayed at 2.9% for the third consecutive month and remained within a narrow band of 2.9% to 3.1% for 18 of the last 19 months. Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics adjusted the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) from -0.1% to 0.1% based on revised seasonal adjustment variables.

 

Recent contradicting statements from Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) President Thomas Barkin and the US-China dispute over "unidentified objects" appear to challenge sentiment and boost the USD due to its safe-haven status.

 

S&P 500 Futures decrease as interest rates on US Treasury bonds increase, benefiting the US Dollar and USD/CAD buyers ahead of critical US inflation data.

 

Due to reports of a Fed policy shift, USD/CAD traders should monitor risk catalysts before to the January US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on Tuesday.


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