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On January 29th, Pepperston analyst Michael Brown stated that the policy statement was largely unchanged, although the assessment of economic conditions was revised upward to reflect a "robust" pace of growth. He indicated that attention will shift to the press conference, where Federal Reserve Chairman Powell may mention that the current federal funds rate is within a reasonable range for the neutral rate, but he will likely firmly avoid any questions regarding what happens after May.January 29th - The Federal Reserve held rates steady as expected. Following the announcement, interest rate futures contracts indicated that the probability of a rate cut in April (Powells last meeting as Fed Chairman) was 28%, slightly lower than previously thought; while the probability of a rate cut in June rose to 64%, an increase from before, and a second rate cut this year is very likely.U.S. natural gas futures rebounded sharply, rising more than 10%, after falling as much as 15% earlier, with the market experiencing significant volatility ahead of contract expiration.Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Clarida: The 10-year yield curve is expected to steepen.January 29th - Nick Timiraos, the "Federal Reserve mouthpiece," wrote a new article stating that the Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected and did not specify when rate cuts might resume. In Decembers projections, 12 of the 19 officials expected at least one more rate cut this year to be appropriate. The answer depends on which scenario comes first: a collapse in the labor market or a confident return of inflation to the 2% target. Neither has occurred since December. Job growth has slowed significantly, but the unemployment rate has remained stable. Inflation data has become unpredictable due to statistical disruptions caused by the government shutdown. If the labor market does not weaken further, the next rate cut may not occur until after Powells term as Fed chairman ends in May.

Analysis-Amazon Win Offers Unions Hope, But Problems Remain

Haiden Holmes

Apr 02, 2022 09:27

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The news on Friday that the United States' first-ever union would be joining the country's second-largest private employer ricocheted across labor organizations, as they started to see a road forward for enlisting employees and reversing decades of decline in their numbers.


Amazon now seems to be a more manageable target for them, albeit it remains a difficult one. Around 55% of votes cast at the Staten Island site went to the Amazon Labor Union (ALU), a newly formed organization led by former Amazon employee Christian Smalls.


The corporation said that it may submit objections and that regardless of whether or not the ALU's victory is formalized, it must still win a contract.


This may be as difficult as winning an election, according to Gregory DeFreitas, a Hofstra University professor of labor economics.


According to a federal document, Amazon spent more than $4 million on labor consultants in 2021 to attempt to convince employees.


"Amazon just has enormous resources for fighting unions and an enormous willingness to do whatever it takes to stay union-free," said John Logan, a San Francisco State University professor who researches anti-union operations.


Duplicating Amazon's success may be challenging. Local expertise and warehouse experience aided the ALU's leadership, which at times attempted to disassociate themselves from the efforts of national labor organizations.


"What succeeds are the leaders who employees know and trust," said Burt Flickinger, managing director of retail consultant Strategic Resource Group, who assisted several unions on organizing Amazon. Flickinger anticipates union organizing efforts to concentrate on more warehouses and Amazon-owned Whole Foods Market locations, noting that unions will need to rebuild depleted financial coffers in order to organize.


The victory in New York follows numerous previous victories at Starbucks coffee outlets. Additionally, it contributes to the perception that the labor movement is evolving. According to Joshua Freeman, a history professor at the CUNY School of Labor and Urban Studies, the ALU used creative organizing strategies, gaining momentum via social media.

The ALU solicited funds through a GoFundMe page.

Simultaneously, established unions are attempting to assist ALU leader Smalls. The Service Employees International Union (SEIU) is extending "any assistance we can," according to Mary Kay Henry, the union's president.

'SPREAD LIKE A BURNING FIRE'

On Friday, the renewed purpose was obvious among union leaders.


The Teamsters, who have been a stalwart opponent of Amazon's refusal to unionize one of its US locations for years, are continue their struggle "on the work floor, at the negotiating table, and on the streets," General President Sean O'Brien stated after the ALU's triumph.


At the SEIU's national headquarters, people cheered and leapt with excitement.


In an interview, Henry said, "This will spread like wildfire." "It's a great source of encouragement for employees opposing the five main airline businesses, for workers battling Starbucks."


Though not finalized, a lost union vote at Amazon's Bessemer, Alabama warehouse prompted some to fear that the ALU's triumph would be limited to labor-friendly states such as New York. That is not the case, according to Logan, the labor professor.


The next battleground will be on Staten Island this month at a second Amazon facility, but some of the company's food workers, as well as other employees and contractors, are mobilizing in Seattle.


"Suddenly, attempting to create a union at Amazon does not seem so pointless," Logan said, adding, "If you can win at Amazon, you can win elsewhere."