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UBS warned that full tariffs could push U.S. inflation to 5%.On April 3, White House aide Peter Navarro said that US President Trump’s tariffs could increase revenue by three times the size of the World War II tax increase in 1942, and could become the largest tax increase in US history.On April 3, a research report by CLSA indicated that ChinaSoft International (00354.HK)s revenue fell 1% year-on-year to RMB 16.951 billion last year, and the first disclosed AI-related revenue was RMB 957 million, accounting for 5.6% of revenue. The companys price reduction strategy has led to a decline in gross profit margin, and the main reason for the lower-than-expected net profit is a one-time impact. The bank expects the companys fundamentals to improve this year, mainly because the number of employees increased in the second half of last year. The bank expects the companys net profit to reach RMB 748 million this year, up 45.8% year-on-year, and lowered the target price from HK$7 to HK$6.5, maintaining the rating of outperforming the market.On April 3, the Australian bond market has experienced a dovish turn since the White House announced its new tariff agenda. IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said that the market has priced in an 85% chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in May. Subsequent rate cuts are expected in August and November, with a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points by November. He added that US tariffs have far exceeded expectations, increasing the likelihood of a trade war and recession in the United States. He also said that since goods from countries such as Vietnam are now effectively shut out of the United States, cheap goods are expected to flood other Asian markets.Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi declined to comment when asked about the possibility of retaliation against U.S. tariffs.

Amidst increasing Fed hawkish bets, the AUD/USD is anticipated to soar over 0.6880

Daniel Rogers

Jul 11, 2022 11:29

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The AUD/USD pair is first seeking to exceed the significant resistance level of 0.6850 since it is expected that the US dollar index (DXY), which was drained on Friday, would perform poorly going forward. The asset is seeking more gains, and greater upside will be due once it clears the important 0.6880 barrier.

 

Even if US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data is upbeat, dollar bulls are expected to do poorly. In June, the US economy added 372k jobs, well above the average estimate of 268k but falling short of the prior figure. The Unemployment Rate remained at 3.6 percent, the same as in the previous report and estimates. The US economy's superior performance on the job market will undoubtedly make it easier for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to announce large rate increases with less reluctance.

 

However, the drop in average hourly earnings (AHE) on Friday will be bad for the US economy. The economic data were 5,1% annually, which was higher than the forecast of 5% but lower than the prior estimate of 5,3%. Reduced AHE does not assist US families when the inflation rate is out of control. Reduced AHEs will have a significant influence on their revenue during times of increasing pricing pressure. The overall demand may go down as a result of this.

 

Investors are focusing on Thursday's release of the employment figures in Australia. It is projected that the Employment Change, which was previously published as 60,6K, will be substantially lower, at 25K. However, from the previously stated 3.9 percent, the jobless rate will drop to 3.8 percent.

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