Amazon Turns Negative For 2021 as Higher Yields

Amazon.com Inc. shares fell sharply on Monday, with the e-commerce giant falling back into negative territory for the year, as a sustained rise in Treasury yields is hurting the earnings outlook for companies with high valuations. 

The stock fell 2.9% in its sixth straight daily decline, the longest such streak since an eight-day drop that ended in August 2019. With the drop, the stock is now down 2.1% for 2021, making it the only one of Wall Street’s five largest names to be negative for the year. 

Amazon stock  (AMZN) - Get Amazon.com, Inc. Report is worth short of $3,300, nearing the bottom of Wall Street’s recent recommendations rather than the top. Edward Yruma, from KeyBanc, targets AMZN stock at $4,000, while Mark Mahaney, from Evercore ISI, sets his projection at $4,700. Average target price is $4,219 according to the top 30 best performing Wall Street analysts on Tip Ranks.

Solid for the long term

Among the most recent reports on Amazon, stock analyst Edward Yruma has one of the lowest price targets on the shares: $4,000, representing upside potential of 16%. According to Mr. Yruma:

“Amazon is the leading company across retail [and] across technology, but ultimately this is one of these very typical investment cycles for Amazon: it can go on for many quarters and we think ultimately we are not seeing the earnings catalyst we’re looking for to get more constructive on the stock.”

On the other hand, Mark Mahaney has recently raised his fair value estimate to $4,700 from $4,200, implying an upside of 36%. The analyst says:

“It’s pretty much the average multiple the stock has traded for the last couple of years. I do want to throw a warning, though. Amazon is aggressively investing and one of the negative surprises is the outlook of margin declines. If Amazon is ramping on all this distribution capacity, one of the first order impacts could be margin pressure before you get that revenue reacceleration, so I do worry for the near-term”.

Bank of America’s Justin Post is positioned between the two analysts above. The analyst reaffirmed his buy recommendation on Amazon after the announcement that the Seattle-based company is developing its own point-of-sale system, in response to Shopify and PayPal's own solutions for small businesses (SMB).

“The ability for SMB merchants to capture direct online sales, off of marketplaces, is a long-term potential threat to Amazon. So, we expect Amazon to offer a feature rich product with deep integration with Amazon’s marketplace, fulfilment, checkout, and payments processing capabilities (with a possible discount on payments processing).”

The top Wall Street analysts recommend buying Amazon stock, but shares have not gone anywhere in the past couple of months. The Amazon Maven speculates that there are two main reasons why the e-commerce titan is still suffering the consequences of its most recent, ill-received earnings report.

The first is fear of overly optimistic expectations on the digital channel that may still linger from a pandemic-stricken 2020. E-commerce growth may be impacted by COVID-19, especially if consumer demand returns quickly to brick-and-mortar as social restrictions ease further.

Second, macroeconomic worries continue to weigh on the markets. Inflation has pulled back, but supply chain disruption still exists. Yields continue to rise, which tends to be bad news for growth stocks like Amazon.

Amazon rolls out early Black Friday deals to jump-start holiday shopping

Amazon is rolling out “Black Friday-worthy” deals in a bid to hook early holiday shoppers, the company announced Monday.

Amazon said it’s offering “deep discounts across every category,” including fashion, electronics, home goods and toys. New deals will be added to the site daily.

Major retailers have tried to encourage consumers to start their holiday shopping earlier than usual to ensure their gifts are delivered on time. Like Amazon’s early holiday push, Target is launching “deal days” online and in stores Oct. 10-12, the company announced last week.

Holiday forecasts have predicted a sharp jump in year-over-year spending. But retailers also face a litany of challenges this year, from inflationary pressures and supply chain woes to labor shortages. For shoppers, that could lead to more headaches like shipping delays or items that are out of stock more than usual.

Amazon also launched a new feature Monday in its shopping app that allows Prime members to send gifts to friends and family without an address. Instead, users enter a person’s phone number or email address. Recipients are notified when they receive a gift and enter their address. They can also opt to exchange the item for a gift card.

The early Black Friday deals coincide with Amazon’s beauty products event, called “Holiday Beauty Haul,” which kicked off Monday. The company hopes to use the event to draw in shoppers ahead of Black Friday and help boost its position in online beauty sales, which have soared during the coronavirus pandemic.