EUR/USD 1.17662
0.487%
Gold 4431.83
2.128%
Oil 57.627
1.971%
USD/JPY 156.985
-0.444%
GBP/USD 1.34519
0.587%
GBP/JPY 211.179
0.140%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
On December 22, the Cambodian Ministry of the Interior issued a statement saying that the death toll of Cambodian civilians caused by the Cambodia-Thailand conflict had risen to 21. Another 83 people were injured, and more than 540,000 people were displaced, including more than 280,000 women and 170,000 children. Intense clashes broke out again in the Cambodia-Thailand border region on December 7. Both sides accused the other of "firing first."The U.S. November retail sales report has been rescheduled for release on January 14.The U.S. housing starts report for September-October has been rescheduled for release on January 9, 2026.The S&P 500 erased its losses this month and is on track for its longest monthly winning streak since 2018.On December 22nd, Morgan Stanleys UK interest rate and inflation strategist, Fabio Bassanin, pointed out in a research report that investors may demand a higher risk premium before buying long-term UK government bonds due to weak demand, concerns about fiscal sustainability, and rising political risks ahead of the May local elections. The UK Debt Management Offices decision this year to significantly reduce the issuance of long-term government bonds reflects a lack of structural demand in the market for long-term bonds. Even with reduced supply, investors may still demand higher yields as compensation for fiscal and political uncertainty. In early September this year, the yield on 30-year UK government bonds surged to 5.749%, the highest level since the late 1990s, mainly driven by deep market concerns about the UKs fiscal sustainability at the time.

The British pound is expected to rise against the dollar for four consecutive days, and the UK's economic recovery in September is stable

Oct 26, 2021 10:52

On Tuesday (October 5), the pound against the US dollar rebounded more than 40 points from the European morning low and climbed to a new daily high of about 1.3625 in the past hour.


After falling to the 1.3585 area during the session, the pound against the dollar attracted new buying on Tuesday and rose for the fourth consecutive trading day. As the stock market showed signs of stabilization, the US dollar gave up some of its intraday gains. This is also seen as a key factor in pushing the currency pair back to the multi-day top touched in the previous trading day, but any meaningful positive trend still seems elusive.

The market expects that the Fed will begin to reduce its stimulus measures and raise interest rates during the large-scale epidemic in 2022. This expectation may continue to promote the US dollar. In addition, concerns that the continued surge in energy prices will trigger inflation and derail the global economic recovery may further consolidate the relative safe-haven position of the U.S. dollar. This, combined with the ongoing fuel crisis in the UK, may limit the pound's gains against the dollar.

After Brexit and the COVID-19 crisis, the supply chain in the UK has become extremely tense due to the shortage of truck drivers. Last week, panic buying of fuel triggered chaos in major cities, forcing the government to send troops to gas stations to deliver gasoline and diesel. This, in turn, may prevent the bulls from betting aggressively and curb the uncontrolled gains of the pound against the dollar in the absence of relevant market economic data in the UK.

In terms of economic data, the UK service industry PMI in September was revised up from 54.6 to 55.4. The final value of the composite PMI rose from 54.8 in August to 54.9 in September. This is the first time since May that there has been no decline, and the initial value was 54.1.

Although the data represents the overall strong growth of the company, shortages of employees, raw materials and transportation have caused the growth rate of new orders to hit the lowest rate since the beginning of 2021 before the anti-epidemic blockade was lifted.

IHS Markit said that the data have not fully reflected the impact of the UK fuel crisis and the end of the month's energy price surge on inflation.

Market participants are now looking forward to the US ISM service industry PMI that will be announced in the North American market in early trading. The dollar bulls will further gain clues from the scheduled speech of Fed Governor Quarles and US bond yields, which, combined with broader market risk sentiment, may bring some trading opportunities for the pound against the dollar.

The upper resistance level focuses on 1.3687, 1.3762, 1.3844, and the lower support level focuses on 1.3602, 1.3572, 1.3538.

(Daily chart of British pound against the U.S. dollar)

At 19:38 GMT+8, the pound was quoted at 1.3631 against the dollar.

Suggestion