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On November 10th, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov stated on the 9th that US President Donald Trumps recent announcement of plans to resume nuclear testing gave the impression that the US intended to begin nuclear testing in the near future. Russia needs clarification on this. Peskov said that Russian President Vladimir Putin has not ordered the immediate commencement of preparations for nuclear testing, and if any other country violates the nuclear testing ban, Russia will be forced to take reciprocal measures to maintain strategic balance.On November 10th, it was reported that on November 9th local time, U.S. Senate Majority Leader John Thune stated that a potential agreement to end the government shutdown was "progressing." However, Thune also noted that an agreement was not guaranteed, as senators needed time to read the proposal and it could take several hours before concrete action could be taken.November 9th - Trump: I am pleased to announce that the great attorney John Coale has been nominated as the U.S. Special Envoy to Belarus. He has successfully facilitated the release of 100 hostages and is working to secure the release of another 50. I would like to express my sincere gratitude in advance to the esteemed President Lukashenko of Belarus for considering the release of these additional hostages.U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessant: Substantial progress is being made on the inflation issue, and prices are expected to fall in the coming months.On November 9th, local time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a new sanctions decision, imposing sanctions on several Russian government officials and institutions. Ukraine called on the international community to increase pressure on Russia and sanction all individuals and organizations that fund war and spread disinformation. Ukraine stated that this round of sanctions includes "Russian government members involved in the plunder of occupied Ukrainian territories" and personnel from Russian military intelligence. Ukraine also plans to take further measures against publishing institutions within Russia engaged in war propaganda and defense of aggression. According to Ukrainian sources, the sanctions list includes individuals such as Russian Presidential Special Representative Kirill Dmitriev.

AUD/USD demonstrates pre-Fed anxiety near 0.64 ahead of the US ADP Employment Change

Daniel Rogers

Nov 02, 2022 17:54

 截屏2022-11-02 上午10.53.53.png

 

Ahead of Wednesday's key Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, traders become cautious, causing AUD/USD to bounce around 0.6400. Traders of the Australian dollar-United States dollar pair are challenged by both pre-Fed anxiety and China- and U.S.-related concerns during a poor Asian session.

 

However, recent strong US data reinforced expectations for hawkish Fed action and defied the market's initial anticipation that officials will signal fewer rate hikes beginning in December. However, increased recession fears and rising price pressure look to present a challenge for both Fed hawks and AUD/USD bears.

 

Despite this, the US JOLTS Job Openings increased to 10,717M in September, compared to the forecast of 10.0M and the upwardly revised readings of 10.28M. In addition, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 in October, compared to market forecasts of 50 and a previous reading of 50.9. Final readings of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for October exceeded 49.9 preliminary predictions to reach 50.4, but stayed below the 52.0 readings from the prior month.

 

In contrast, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) preparedness to offer additional rate hikes, after announcing the second increase of 25 basis points (bps) to the benchmark rate the previous day, benefits AUD/USD buyers. During his scheduled speech on Tuesday, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe noted, "Rates have been significantly increased in a very short period of time." According to the official, the board has determined that a more gradual rate rise is necessary.

 

Aside from this, prospects of reducing covid restrictions in China and the recently higher China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for October may have helped AUD/USD buyers in the past, despite being the third consecutive reading below 50.

 

Yields remain unchanged at 4.05% following a solid start to November, while S&P 500 Futures register moderate gains despite Wall Street's poor close.

 

Consequently, AUD/USD pair traders should keep an eye on risk triggers and Australia's September Building Permits for fresh market impetus. Also essential will be the US ADP Employment Change for the month of October, as it gives an early indicator for Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls report. However, significant emphasis should be placed on the Fed's ability to transmit a brake on the rapid rate hikes.

 

Combined with the AUD/USD pair's resistance to dip below the 10-DMA support near.6390, Tuesday's daily candle gives buyers hope. A downward-sloping resistance line from the beginning of August, which was near 0.6480 at the time of writing, challenges the upward momentum of the quote.


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