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AUD/JPY remains around 95.00, and a greater policy difference between the RBA and BOJ is likely

Alina Haynes

Sep 02, 2022 14:46

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The Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen exchange rate has been volatile during the Tokyo trading session, moving in a slightly wider range of 94.77-95.20. In the meantime, investors have been watching the asset's price closely ahead of next week's monetary policy decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The cross has shown a sideways auction over the previous two trading sessions despite the issuance of a dismal Caixin Manufacturing PMI.

 

Following a downward revision, economic indicators now stand at 49.5, which is lower than both the prior report of 50.4 and the consensus expectation of 50.2. Fears of a recession have been exacerbated by the Chinese government's lockdown restrictions in the face of a rebound in Covid-19 cases.

 

As China's largest trading partner, Australia could feel the effects of China's weak economic performance if the latter continues to struggle.

 

Policy divergence between the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Japan could widen after next week's RBA interest rate announcement (BOJ). RBA Governor Philip Lowe is expected to announce a fourth consecutive 50 basis point rate hike in light of mounting inflationary pressures in the Australian economy (bps). To account for this possibility, the OCR will go up to 2.35 percent.

 

In the meantime, the weak yen is causing rising import prices in Japan. The private sector faces headwinds from expensive inputs, which significantly impact margins. Positive Retail Trade figures this week did not help the Japanese yen. Compared to the predicted 1.9% and the prior announcement of 1.5%, annual retail sales jumped dramatically to 2.4%.

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