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Futures data from September 17th: Spot gold prices surged above the 3,700 mark overnight, with COMEX gold futures rising 0.23% to $3,727.50 per ounce, and SHFE gold futures closing up 0.19%. Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, a weakening dollar, and geopolitical uncertainty are all contributing to golds performance. Focus is on the Federal Reserves September meeting and the subsequent Quarterly Economic Projections (SEP). The US dollar continued to weaken on Tuesday, with the US dollar index falling 0.74% to a low of 96.54, hitting a near two-month low. Furthermore, the dollar fell 0.9% against the euro, reaching its lowest level since September 2021. Regarding economic data, US retail sales for August, released on Tuesday, rose 0.6% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of a 0.2% increase. The previous reading was revised from 0.5% to 0.6%, demonstrating resilience in consumer spending. The Federal Reserve held its meeting early Thursday morning, and a rate cut is all but certain. With the US Presidents newly nominated Fed Governor, Milan, participating in the FOMC meeting, the published dot plot is expected to show a more dovish tone, with the number of rate cuts for 2025 expected to fluctuate between two and three. Furthermore, continued pressure from the White House on Powell and other governors is crucial. Concerns about the Feds independence may continue to exacerbate market volatility.According to the Wall Street Journal: Eli Lilly (LLY.N) will invest $5 billion to build a factory in Virginia, USA.Japanese Ministry of Finance: Japans exports to the United States fell 13.8% year-on-year in August; exports to the European Union increased 5.5% year-on-year in August.Japans seasonally adjusted merchandise trade account in August was -150.125 billion yen, compared with expectations of -341.3 billion yen and the previous value of -303 billion yen.Japans annualized rate of merchandise imports in August was -5.2%, in line with expectations of -4.2%. The previous value was revised from -7.50% to -7.40%.

AUDJPY fails to exceed 94.00 prior to Australian Employment data

Alina Haynes

Nov 16, 2022 15:00

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The AUDJPY pair faces headwinds in the early Tokyo session as it attempts to hold above the important support level of 94.00. The asset has encountered resistance at 94.50 and is projected to stay volatile until the release of Australian employment data on Thursday.

 

As geopolitical tensions increase, the value of the cross has decreased. Following the expansion of Russian separatist military action into Poland, the risk profile has deteriorated. Russia has denied any participation in the incident, while Poland has demanded a meeting with NATO countries.

 

Despite the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes on Tuesday, the risk indicator remained relatively stable. In spite of an extraordinary spike in inflation to 7.3%, the RBA minutes showed a 75% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike.

 

The board concurred that acting consistently on policy rates would enhance the public's and financial market participants' faith in the monetary policy framework. In addition, RBA policymakers believed that the Official Cash Rate (OCR) had risen substantially in a short time. In addition, the anticipated interest rate has been raised to 8%.

 

Meanwhile, Japanese investors reacted less harshly to Tuesday's disappointing Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. Contrary to forecasts of 0.3% growth and a previous declaration of 0.9%, the Japanese economy contracted 0.3% during the third quarter. Compared to the expected expansion of 1.1% and the prior release of 3.5%, the economic catalyst has revealed a negative growth rate of 1.2% on an annualized basis.

 

This week, the most important asset trigger will be the Australian payroll data. According to the consensus, the economy added 15,000 jobs in October, compared to a paltry gain of 900 jobs in September. The predicted unemployment rate is 3.6%, up from 3.5% in the previous report.


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