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According to TASS, Russia and Ukraine may soon conduct a prisoner exchange.The SC crude oil futures contract fell 4.00% intraday, currently trading at 490.00 yuan per barrel.On June 23, Deutsche Bank lowered its gold price forecast by up to 22% as investors grew increasingly cautious about the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy and investment demand for the precious metal dried up. Michael Hsueh, a research analyst at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a report that he now expects gold to reach $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter, a reduction of more than one-fifth from his previous forecast; and $4,800 in the fourth quarter, a reduction of 17%. This still implies that gold prices will continue to rise from the current level of around $4,110 per ounce, but the bullish sentiment is significantly weaker than before. Deutsche Bank shifted to a more cautious outlook, following Goldman Sachs move last week, which lowered its year-end gold price target by $500 to $4,900 per ounce. Hsueh stated that the Feds repricing, coupled with resilient US macroeconomic data, were the main factors driving gold prices lower. The banks fourth-quarter target is based on the assessment that the Fed will continue to maintain unchanged interest rates, but if there are three to four rate hikes, gold prices could fall to around $3,800. Continued outflows from gold ETFs indicate that this traditionally supportive factor for gold prices is "significantly absent." On the positive side, the only remaining strong pillar is central bank demand, and we expect this trend to continue for some time.Nasdaq 100 futures fell more than 2%, S&P 500 futures fell 1.08%, and Dow Jones futures fell 0.36%.Sources indicate that Nissan halted development of its electric Qashqai SUV early last year. Even if the project is restarted, the model is not expected to launch until the next decade.

AUDJPY continues to struggle around 94.00 despite solid Aussie jobs data

Daniel Rogers

Nov 17, 2022 11:45

截屏2022-11-17 上午10.20.01.png 

 

The AUDJPY pair has stayed firm around 94.00 despite the release of bullish Australian employment data. Compared to the projected 15k and the preceding release of 0.9k, the Australian Bureau of Statistics announces that the economy has added 32,200 new jobs to the payroll market. In addition, the unemployment rate has decreased from 3.6% to 3.5% to 3.4%.

 

Australian employment numbers that surpass expectations will impress the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). This will allow RBA Governor Philip Lowe to continue steadily hiking rates. In light of this week's release of the RBA's minutes, the central bank will maintain a rate hike structure of 25 basis points (bps) because policymakers believe the Official Cash Rate (OCR) has already been hiked in a short amount of time.

 

Nevertheless, the inflation rate has not yet reached its high, as a historic increase in price growth observed in the third quarter indicates. The Australian inflation rate increased to 7.3%, exceeding the consensus expectation of 7.0%. This prompted the RBA to hike its projected interest rate to 8%. In addition to producing increasing price pressures, a limited market is responsible for the robust purchasing power of households.

 

As Russia-Poland tensions have largely calmed and no further developments are anticipated, the risk profile is expected to diminish.

 

On the Tokyo front, an unexpected decline in Gross Domestic Product is haunting investors. In contrast to expectations of a 0.3% increase, Japan's gross domestic product decreased 0.3% in the third quarter. We were surprised by the q/q decline in the third quarter because we underestimated the impact of higher inflation, the summer wave of COVID-19 infections, and a significant weakening of the yen, which exacerbated the nation's already soaring import costs.

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