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On September 18th, State Street Global Advisors stated that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is likely to adopt a cautious approach after raising its policy rate to 1.25%. Economist Krishna Bhimavarapu noted that while policy adjustments are possible at every policy meeting, Governor Kazuo Ueda may avoid explicitly committing to further rate hikes given weak household consumption and relatively moderate inflation. Strategist Masahiko Loo expects Ueda to maintain a neutral-to-hawkish stance; he pointed out that resilient economic growth, persistent inflation risks, and accommodative real policy rates all support further policy normalization. The current focus of discussion is shifting from whether the BOJ will raise rates again to what level interest rates will ultimately rise to.According to Japans Kyodo News, a meeting between the leaders of Japan and the United States is scheduled for September 22.The yield on Japans 2-year government bonds fell 4 basis points to 1.820%, while the yield on Japans 5-year government bonds fell 3 basis points to 2.265%.The yield on Japans 40-year government bonds rose 2.0 basis points to 4.135%.On September 18th, the Financial Times reported that the Venezuelan government and the countrys opposition are close to reaching an agreement to transfer approximately $4 billion worth of Venezuelas gold reserves from the Bank of England to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Four sources familiar with the matter revealed that under the terms of the agreement under discussion, the interim government led by acting President Rodriguez would gain legal control of the gold but would be prohibited from immediately selling the assets. Three of the sources indicated that the gold could instead be used as collateral for government borrowing to fund expenditures, including reconstruction following the devastating twin earthquakes in June. This potential gold deal is one of the first concrete results of negotiations between the US-backed interim government and the opposition. The sources said the agreement has not yet been finalized, and clarifying the technical details could take some time.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – 200 Day EMA Comes Into the Picture Again

Jimmy Khan

Nov 17, 2022 17:04

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Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

The 200-Day EMA is barely above in the E-mini contract, therefore it's possible that the S&P 500 will continue to experience problems in this area despite initial attempts to rally during the trading session. The 4000 level is currently the focus of our attention because it is a level that obviously has a big, round, psychologically significant number. Another breakdown can occur if we fall below the 3900 level.


Keep in mind that the earnings season has been a bit of a mixed bag. We also need to pay close attention to the Federal Reserve because, in my opinion, the market has been overly optimistic about the possibility of the Federal Reserve slowing down.


To be really honest, I believe they will keep suppressing demand in an effort to lower inflation.


Remember that the inflation rate in the US is slightly under 8%, making their target over 4 times higher. Additionally, there is a myth being propagated that suggests consumers may have to deal with "greater inflation." That is not true.


In the end, I believe you will continue to see a lot of volatility, but it is also important to note that following the CPI report, we immediately went straight up in the air and have since practically stagnated. It has no meaningful follow-through, in other words. I'm definitely keeping an eye out for a chance to start fading because it might be the main tell on this chart right now. We need some sort of stimulus, though, for prices to rise as high as 4200 if we break above the highs.

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