EUR/USD 1.18526
-0.986%
Gold 4847.62
-9.836%
Oil 65.488
0.377%
USD/JPY 154.755
1.076%
GBP/USD 1.36826
-0.917%
GBP/JPY 211.750
0.158%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
February 2nd - With Kevin Warshs nomination as Federal Reserve Chairman, market focus has abruptly shifted from short-term interest rates to the Feds $6.6 trillion balance sheet and its fundamental role in the market. Zach Griffiths, Head of Investment Grade Bonds and Macro Strategy at CreditSights, noted, "He has consistently been a vocal critic of the Feds balance sheet expansion." Warsh hopes to fundamentally reverse the trend of asset expansion and push for other reforms. However, this move will face complex challenges, directly impacting not only long-term interest rates but also the core markets upon which large global financial institutions rely for daily interbank lending. If policymakers agree to shrink the balance sheet, the transmission effect in the market could lead to a conflict between the Feds and the governments goals of reducing long-term borrowing costs. This could force the Treasury or other US agencies to become more deeply involved in market management, which will face even greater challenges given the continued rise in total borrowing demand and the already over $30 trillion national debt. PGIM points out that if Warshs predictions are true, then the pressure to regulate will shift to the Treasury.February 2nd - On February 1st local time, US President Trump, answering reporters questions about Iran at Mar-a-Lago, stated his hope that "a deal can be reached." Responding to Iranian Supreme Leader Khameneis warning that a US strike would trigger a regional war, Trump said that if a deal cannot be reached, "then well see if he (Khamenei) is right." Trump emphasized to reporters that the US has deployed "the worlds largest and most powerful ships" in the region. Earlier that day, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated that Iran "remains confident" of reaching an agreement with the US on the nuclear issue.Domestic News: 1. The State Taxation Administration clarified the threshold for value-added tax (VAT) collection and management. 2. Wang Yi held strategic communication with Sergei Shoigu, Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation. 3. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC): Investors should closely monitor changes in precious metal prices and reasonably control their position size. 4. The first-month performance reports of emerging electric vehicle manufacturers in the new year are released. Xiaomi, Wenjie, and HarmonyOS performed well, while BYDs production and sales both declined. 5. Guotou Silver LOF: Trading will be suspended from the opening of the market on February 2nd until 10:30 am on the same day. The daily price fluctuation limit after resumption of trading will be 10%. 6. China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom announced: The scope of application of VAT on telecommunications services has been adjusted, and the tax rate has increased to 9%, which will affect the companys revenue and profits. International News: 1. The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament announced that the armies of European countries will be considered "terrorist organizations." 2. US media: The Speaker of the US House of Representatives said he is confident that the partial government shutdown will end by Tuesday. 3. Zelensky: A new round of trilateral talks between Ukraine, the US, and Russia will be held on February 4th and 5th. 4. Saudi stocks suffered their biggest drop since June last year due to geopolitical factors and a gold price plunge. 5. Indias budget: 400 billion rupees will be allocated to support the semiconductor manufacturing industry. 6. Indias stock market held a special trading session on Sunday due to the budget, with metal stocks and ETFs suffering heavy losses. 7. OPEC+ statement: Eight member countries will maintain their original plan to suspend increases in oil production in March. 8. US-Iran situation—① It is reported that high-ranking US and Israeli military officials held intensive talks this weekend to discuss a strike against Iran. ② Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei stated that if the US launches a war this time, it will trigger a regional conflict. ③ Iranian officials: Media reports about the Revolutionary Guard planning military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz are incorrect. ④ US media: The US military is strengthening its air defense deployment in the Middle East to prepare for potential action against Iran.OPEC+ Statement: The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) reiterated the importance of full compliance with oil production targets.On February 1st, OPEC+ held an online meeting to assess the global market situation and outlook. The eight participating countries reaffirmed the decision made on November 2nd, 2025, to suspend increased production in March 2026 due to seasonal factors. The eight countries reiterated that the previous production cut of 1.65 million barrels per day may be partially or fully restored depending on market developments, and this will be done gradually. Countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions, and while continuing efforts to maintain market stability, reiterated the importance of a cautious approach and sufficient flexibility to continue suspending (increased production) or canceling additional (production cuts), including the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day announced in November 2023. The organization will hold its next meeting on March 1st, 2026.

NFP and Forex: What is NFP and How Does It Work?

Larissa Barlow

Mar 25, 2022 14:57

Nfp And Forex Trading: Key Points of Discussion 

  • The announcement of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) creates volatility in the FX market.

  • The NFP calculates the net change in employment jobs.

  • Forex traders utilize an economic calendar to anticipate the publication of the NFP.

  • What is a non-governmental organization (nfp)?

 

Non-farm payrolls (NFP) are a critical economic indicator for the US economy. It is the amount of new employment created, excluding agricultural workers, government employees, private home employees, and nonprofit organization employees.

 

image.png 

 

In general, NFP announcements produce significant volatility in the FX market. Typically, the NFP data is provided on the first Friday of each month at 8:30 a.m. ET. This article will discuss the importance of non-farm payrolls in economics and how to use them into a forex trading strategy.

 

What Effect Does The NFP Have On Forex?

 

NFP data is significant since it is issued monthly, giving it an excellent predictor of the economy's present status. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the statistics, and the next release may be found on an economic calendar.

 

The Federal Reserve Bank views employment as a critical indicator. When unemployment is elevated, policymakers frequently pursue an expansionary monetary policy (stimulatory, with low interest rates). An expansionary monetary policy seeks to boost economic production and employment.

 

Thus, if the unemployment rate is greater than usual, policymakers will attempt to stimulate the economy. Stimulatory monetary policy means lowering interest rates and decreasing demand for the Dollar (money flows out of a low yielding currency). To understand how this works in detail, please read our article on how interest rates affect FX.

 

The chart below illustrates how volatile FX can be following the announcement of the NFP. The projected NFP result for March 8, 2019 was 180k (job additions), however the actual result was only 20k. As a result, the value of the Dollar Index (DXY) decreased and volatility rose.

 

image.png 

 

Forex traders must exercise caution when it comes to data releases such as the NFP. Traders may be stopped out as a result of the abrupt surge in volatility. Spreads rise in lockstep with volatility, and larger spreads might result in margin calls.

Which Currency Pairs Are Affected the Most by the NFP

Because the NFP data is a leading predictor of American employment, it has the greatest impact on currency pairs that contain the US Dollar (EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and USD/CHF, among others).

 

Other currency pairings also see an uptick in volatility following the release of the NFP, and traders must be mindful of this risk of being stopped out. The chart below illustrates the CAD/JPY exchange rate during the publication of the NFP data. As you can see, even if a trader is not trading a currency pair tied to the US Dollar, a rise in volatility might force a trader out of their position.

 

image.png 

Dates for the Release of Non-Farm Payroll

NFP figures are typically released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on the first Friday of each month at 8:30 a.m. ET. On the Bureau of Labor Statistics' website, you may see the release dates.

 

We propose adopting a pull-back strategy rather than a breakthrough approach because to the volatility nature of the NFP announcement. Before entering a trade using a pullback technique, traders should wait for the currency pair to retrace.

 

Using the same scenario as earlier (NFP findings of 20,000 vs. 180,000 predicted), we anticipate a depreciation of the US Dollar. In the example below, we will use the EUR/USD currency pair. We predict the EUR/USD will rise as a result of the worse-than-expected NFP report.

 

image.png 

Trading Nfp Data Releases: Best Practices & Additional Reading

The following are some pointers to keep in mind while utilizing NFP data releases to guide your forex trading:

 

  1. Each month, the NFP data is provided on the first Friday.

  2. Increased volatility and widening spreads are accompanying the announcement of the NFP data.

  3. Currency pairings that are not tied to the US Dollar may also see greater volatility and spread widening.

  4. Trading the NFP data release can be risky owing to increased volatility and potential spread widening. To avoid being stopped out, we recommend applying the right leverage, or none at all.

 

Other significant data releases to keep an eye on include the following:

 

While the NFP often influences the market, other major data releases include the CPI (inflation), Fed funds rates, and GDP growth.

 

If you're interested in learning more about trading the news and data releases, check out our beginner's guide to trading the news. Additionally, we recommend reading our tutorial on the characteristics of great traders to avoid the number one error traders make while trading forex.

Suggestion