Mar 25, 2022 14:57
The announcement of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) creates volatility in the FX market.
The NFP calculates the net change in employment jobs.
Forex traders utilize an economic calendar to anticipate the publication of the NFP.
What is a non-governmental organization (nfp)?
Non-farm payrolls (NFP) are a critical economic indicator for the US economy. It is the amount of new employment created, excluding agricultural workers, government employees, private home employees, and nonprofit organization employees.
In general, NFP announcements produce significant volatility in the FX market. Typically, the NFP data is provided on the first Friday of each month at 8:30 a.m. ET. This article will discuss the importance of non-farm payrolls in economics and how to use them into a forex trading strategy.
What Effect Does The NFP Have On Forex?
NFP data is significant since it is issued monthly, giving it an excellent predictor of the economy's present status. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the statistics, and the next release may be found on an economic calendar.
The Federal Reserve Bank views employment as a critical indicator. When unemployment is elevated, policymakers frequently pursue an expansionary monetary policy (stimulatory, with low interest rates). An expansionary monetary policy seeks to boost economic production and employment.
Thus, if the unemployment rate is greater than usual, policymakers will attempt to stimulate the economy. Stimulatory monetary policy means lowering interest rates and decreasing demand for the Dollar (money flows out of a low yielding currency). To understand how this works in detail, please read our article on how interest rates affect FX.
The chart below illustrates how volatile FX can be following the announcement of the NFP. The projected NFP result for March 8, 2019 was 180k (job additions), however the actual result was only 20k. As a result, the value of the Dollar Index (DXY) decreased and volatility rose.
Forex traders must exercise caution when it comes to data releases such as the NFP. Traders may be stopped out as a result of the abrupt surge in volatility. Spreads rise in lockstep with volatility, and larger spreads might result in margin calls.
Because the NFP data is a leading predictor of American employment, it has the greatest impact on currency pairs that contain the US Dollar (EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and USD/CHF, among others).
Other currency pairings also see an uptick in volatility following the release of the NFP, and traders must be mindful of this risk of being stopped out. The chart below illustrates the CAD/JPY exchange rate during the publication of the NFP data. As you can see, even if a trader is not trading a currency pair tied to the US Dollar, a rise in volatility might force a trader out of their position.
NFP figures are typically released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on the first Friday of each month at 8:30 a.m. ET. On the Bureau of Labor Statistics' website, you may see the release dates.
We propose adopting a pull-back strategy rather than a breakthrough approach because to the volatility nature of the NFP announcement. Before entering a trade using a pullback technique, traders should wait for the currency pair to retrace.
Using the same scenario as earlier (NFP findings of 20,000 vs. 180,000 predicted), we anticipate a depreciation of the US Dollar. In the example below, we will use the EUR/USD currency pair. We predict the EUR/USD will rise as a result of the worse-than-expected NFP report.
The following are some pointers to keep in mind while utilizing NFP data releases to guide your forex trading:
Each month, the NFP data is provided on the first Friday.
Increased volatility and widening spreads are accompanying the announcement of the NFP data.
Currency pairings that are not tied to the US Dollar may also see greater volatility and spread widening.
Trading the NFP data release can be risky owing to increased volatility and potential spread widening. To avoid being stopped out, we recommend applying the right leverage, or none at all.
Other significant data releases to keep an eye on include the following:
While the NFP often influences the market, other major data releases include the CPI (inflation), Fed funds rates, and GDP growth.
If you're interested in learning more about trading the news and data releases, check out our beginner's guide to trading the news. Additionally, we recommend reading our tutorial on the characteristics of great traders to avoid the number one error traders make while trading forex.