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On May 20th, according to Irans Tasnim News Agency, Iranian military spokesman Mohammad Akraminia emphasized the armys state of readiness in a speech on Tuesday. He stated that the army has treated the "ceasefire period" as a "wartime period" and has used this opportunity to enhance its combat capabilities. Regarding hostile forces, the spokesman stated that Iran will never be besieged or defeated. He warned that if the enemy makes another foolish move and falls into the Jewish trap again, launching another invasion of Iran, then the country will open new fronts to confront them through new means and methods. At the same time, he emphasized the Iranian armed forces control of the Strait of Hormuz, stating that the situation in this strategic waterway cannot return to its previous state. He said, "The only way out for the enemy is to respect the Iranian nation and respect Irans legitimate rights."On May 20th, Cornwall Insights, a UK-based energy consultancy, released a report on May 19th forecasting household energy price ceilings for July to September 2026. The report stated that rising energy prices due to the Middle East conflict could increase the annual energy expenditure ceiling for UK households by 13%. According to the final forecast, a UK household using both gas and electricity could see its annual energy bill reach as high as £1,850 (approximately US$1.339 per pound), up from a previous forecast of £1,641. The report points out that the main reason for the energy price increase is the sharp rise in global energy prices following the outbreak of the Middle East conflict. Although the temporary ceasefire has somewhat mitigated market volatility, prices remain high. The report predicts that even if the conflict ends immediately, the damage to infrastructure and supply chain disruptions will have a lasting impact, making it difficult for the UK household energy cost ceiling to fall back to April levels this autumn.On May 20th, both WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell by more than 2% on Wednesday, as US President Trump reiterated that the war with Iran would soon end. However, investors remained cautious about the outcome of the peace talks due to continued supply disruptions in the Middle East. Emril Jamil, senior oil research analyst at the London Stock Exchange Group, said that benchmark oil prices softened due to the possibility of an agreement as the market weighed the geopolitical situation. However, even if an agreement is reached, oil prices may still have some room to rise, as supply is unlikely to immediately return to pre-war levels. Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities, said that investors are closely watching whether the US and Iran can truly find common ground and reach a peace agreement, given the possibility of another US strike against Iran and the fact that even if a peace agreement is reached, crude oil supply will not quickly return to pre-war levels, oil prices are likely to remain high.WHO Director-General: A U.S. citizen has been diagnosed with Ebola.WHO Director-General: The committee unanimously agreed that the Ebola outbreak constitutes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, but not a pandemic.

WTI struggles to prolong its two-day uptrend below $78, as negative sentiment undermines expectations for China-led oil demand

Daniel Rogers

Mar 02, 2023 15:46

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Following a two-day uptrend that reached the greatest levels in a fortnight, the price of WTI crude oil fluctuates between $77.80 and $90 early Thursday.

 

The recent struggles of the black gold may be related to the contradictory signals encircling China and the Oil equities. However, negative sentiment and the resurgence of the US Dollar appear to be the quote's greatest obstacles to the upside.

 

In addition, higher-than-anticipated US inventories weigh on the energy benchmark. The weekly data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates a 1.165M increase in Oil inventories, compared to the expected 0.45M increase and the previous level of 7.648M.

 

The willingness of US President Joseph Biden to continue pumping the markets with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and the absence of offers for Russian Oil also exert downward pressure on the price of WTI crude oil.

 

The latest New York Times (NYT) headlines suggest a potential rift between the United States and China at the important event. According to the news, "China is urging the start of peace talks, and some Group of 20 nations may support that notion when they meet in India, but U.S. officials contend Russia would not negotiate in good faith."

 

It should be noted, however, that the recent uptick in China activity data and optimistic remarks from the dragon nation's policymakers keep black gold purchasers optimistic. China's Minister of Human Resources recently stated, "China's employment will continue to increase this year and remains stable overall." On Wednesday, China's Finance Minister Liu He expressed a willingness to increase the country's fiscal expenditure while noting that the foundation of China's economic recovery remains fragile.

 

However, hawkish remarks from policymakers of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BoE), and the European Central Bank (ECB) highlighted the need for additional rate hikes to combat inflation issues, which exerted downward pressure on the price of oil.

 

In response to these events, 10-year US Treasury bond yields surpassed 4% for the first time since early November 2022, while 2-year yields ascended to their highest levels since June 2007 by flashing 4.91%. The increase in US Treasury bond yields reflects the market's concerns, which in turn have impacted on bulls on Wall Street, S&P 500 Futures, and WTI bulls recently. Consequently, S&P 500 Futures were down 0.5 percent as of press time despite the varied closing of Wall Street benchmarks.

 

Moving on, G20 updates could be combined with comments from central bankers and secondary US data to amuse Oil traders.