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September 2nd - Early this morning (September 2nd) local time, a spokesperson for Irans Hatem Anbia Central Command issued a statement saying that the US military recently conducted airstrikes on multiple military and non-military targets in southern Iran, causing civilian casualties. In response, Iranian armed forces launched attacks on US military bases in the region using missiles and drones. The statement said the attacks caused serious damage to US infrastructure, weapons, and equipment, and resulted in the deaths and injuries of a significant number of US commanders and soldiers. The statement indicated that military action against the US will continue until the US "regrets its actions." The statement also warned that if the US continues its military operations in the region, it will face a "heavier, broader, and more destructive" response; any country cooperating with the US military must bear the resulting "dangerous consequences."1. In a closed-door meeting on Tuesday, Trump urged U.S. refiners to increase domestic gasoline and diesel production. Refinery executives believe that federal requirements for biofuel blending, including quotas for alternative fuels, are driving up gasoline retail prices and are questioning the governments record biofuel blending quota targets. 2. According to CCTV News, on September 1st local time, the Peruvian Foreign Ministry announced the severing of diplomatic relations with Iran, stating that this decision had been notified to Iran through a diplomatic note from the Iranian Embassy in Ecuador. 3. Xinhua News Agency reported that Russian President Putin stated on the evening of September 1st that negotiations related to the Ukraine issue have stalled, and rumors that Russia would announce a new round of mobilization after the State Duma (lower house of parliament) elections are unfounded. 4. Brazils Rio Grande do Sul agricultural extension company (Emater) released its first annual crop forecast on Tuesday, showing that the states soybean planting area for 2026/27 is expected to be 6.645 million hectares, a decrease of 0.92% from the previous year. However, driven by El Niño, yields are expected to recover, with production jumping by more than 15%. 5. Australian company Mineral Resources (MinRes) announced its 2026 fiscal year lithium business performance, with combined sales of 559,000 tonnes of SC6 spodumene concentrate from Wodgina and Mt Marion. Both Wodgina and Mt Marion exceeded guidance. 6. According to Reuters, US Energy Secretary Wright stated that 17 million barrels of crude oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, the highest oil flow in the waterway since the Iran-Iraq War disrupted shipping. 7. According to data from Zhaogang.com, Chinas national construction material output reached 4.3757 million tons, an increase of 114,800 tons from the previous week; total inventory was 11.0508 million tons, a decrease of 61,700 tons from the previous week; national hot-rolled coil output reached 4.217 million tons, an increase of 72,800 tons from the previous week; total inventory was 5.1266 million tons, a decrease of 125,700 tons from the previous week. 8. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand unanimously decided to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.75%. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand stated that the inflation rate rose to 4.1% in the June quarter due to rising fuel prices caused by the Middle East conflict. 9. Data from the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Crusher Association (SPPOMA) shows that from August 1-31, 2026, Malaysian palm oil yield per hectare decreased by 4.53% compared to the same period last month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.15% compared to the same period last month, and output decreased by 3.74% compared to the same period last month. 10. Shipping data shows that four commodity carriers passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, down from 10 the previous day and below the daily average of about 13 over the past 10 days. 11. According to SMM, Indonesian nickel prices fell again in the first half of September. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has officially released the nickel ore benchmark price (HMA) for the first half of September 2026. The HMA for the first half of September is: $16,733.33/ton, a decrease of $226.67 from $16,960/ton in the second half of August 2026, a drop of 1.33%.Jefferies: Lowered its price target for Oracle (ORCL.N) from $320 to $290.On September 2nd, NASA announced on September 1st that it has awarded Blue Origin a contract to develop a Mars communications network designed to provide reliable, high-bandwidth communications and navigation services for current and future Mars exploration missions. According to NASA, the maximum potential value of this fixed-price contract is approximately $700 million. Under the contract, Blue Origin will be responsible for the design, development, integration, launch, and operation of the Mars communications network, and will deliver a high-performance Mars communications orbiter to NASA by December 31, 2028.September 2nd - According to the Financial Times, a senior European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker stated that the ECB should not shy away from further interest rate hikes if inflation "starts to move in the wrong direction." ECB Governing Council member Machrouf said he was "uneasy" that the eurozone inflation rate was hovering above 3%, while economic growth was "slightly stronger" than predicted before the summer. Machrouf stated, "Our decision next week will not surprise anyone." He added that he expects the ECB to also "slightly" raise its eurozone economic growth forecast this year. Machrouf emphasized that even at 2.5%, the ECBs benchmark deposit rate would not dampen economic activity. "Policy is not restrictive," he said, adding that restrictive policy "generally speaking, will only begin when interest rates exceed 2.75%." Furthermore, he believes it is unclear whether further rate hikes are needed after the expected rate increase next week, and the ECB should adhere to its "meeting-by-meeting" strategy and avoid providing forward guidance. He stated that inflation expectations are "in good shape," and there are no signs of a "second round of inflation on the wage side. We see the associated risks being managed."

WTI struggles to prolong its two-day uptrend below $78, as negative sentiment undermines expectations for China-led oil demand

Daniel Rogers

Mar 02, 2023 15:46

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Following a two-day uptrend that reached the greatest levels in a fortnight, the price of WTI crude oil fluctuates between $77.80 and $90 early Thursday.

 

The recent struggles of the black gold may be related to the contradictory signals encircling China and the Oil equities. However, negative sentiment and the resurgence of the US Dollar appear to be the quote's greatest obstacles to the upside.

 

In addition, higher-than-anticipated US inventories weigh on the energy benchmark. The weekly data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates a 1.165M increase in Oil inventories, compared to the expected 0.45M increase and the previous level of 7.648M.

 

The willingness of US President Joseph Biden to continue pumping the markets with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and the absence of offers for Russian Oil also exert downward pressure on the price of WTI crude oil.

 

The latest New York Times (NYT) headlines suggest a potential rift between the United States and China at the important event. According to the news, "China is urging the start of peace talks, and some Group of 20 nations may support that notion when they meet in India, but U.S. officials contend Russia would not negotiate in good faith."

 

It should be noted, however, that the recent uptick in China activity data and optimistic remarks from the dragon nation's policymakers keep black gold purchasers optimistic. China's Minister of Human Resources recently stated, "China's employment will continue to increase this year and remains stable overall." On Wednesday, China's Finance Minister Liu He expressed a willingness to increase the country's fiscal expenditure while noting that the foundation of China's economic recovery remains fragile.

 

However, hawkish remarks from policymakers of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BoE), and the European Central Bank (ECB) highlighted the need for additional rate hikes to combat inflation issues, which exerted downward pressure on the price of oil.

 

In response to these events, 10-year US Treasury bond yields surpassed 4% for the first time since early November 2022, while 2-year yields ascended to their highest levels since June 2007 by flashing 4.91%. The increase in US Treasury bond yields reflects the market's concerns, which in turn have impacted on bulls on Wall Street, S&P 500 Futures, and WTI bulls recently. Consequently, S&P 500 Futures were down 0.5 percent as of press time despite the varied closing of Wall Street benchmarks.

 

Moving on, G20 updates could be combined with comments from central bankers and secondary US data to amuse Oil traders.