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September 20th - According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), from January to August, the top ten passenger car manufacturers sold a total of 4.014 million vehicles, accounting for 67.9% of total passenger car sales. Among these ten companies, SAIC Motor and Tesla saw varying degrees of sales growth compared to the same period last year, while the sales of the other companies all declined to varying degrees.On September 20th, Orient Securities Research stated that the LPR (Loan Prime Rate) for both maturities remained unchanged in September, largely in line with market expectations. The stable LPR since the beginning of the year reflects the fact that first-half GDP growth reached 4.7%, falling within the annual economic growth target range of 4.5% to 5.0%, with accelerated development in new productivity sectors, represented by high-tech manufacturing. This means that although domestic investment and consumption have weakened since the second quarter, and economic growth momentum has declined somewhat, macroeconomic policies have maintained strong resolve, and monetary policy remains in an observation period. This is the fundamental reason why the LPR remained unchanged in September. We predict that the central bank may implement policy-driven interest rate cuts later, which will lead to a follow-up reduction in the LPR. The Politburo meeting on July 30th emphasized the need to "fully leverage the effectiveness of existing policies, promptly plan and introduce practical and effective incremental policies, and increase counter-cyclical adjustments," and required "comprehensive use and timely adjustment of monetary policy tools." Considering the economic and financial situation and price trends, the possibility of a new round of incremental policies cannot be ruled out.Chinas total electricity consumption in August rose 1.7% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month.Chinas total electricity consumption in August was 1,033.2 billion kilowatt-hours, compared to 1,040 billion kilowatt-hours in the previous month.September 20th - From January to August, total electricity consumption in China reached 7,173 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%. By sector, primary industry electricity consumption was 104.6 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. Secondary industry electricity consumption was 4,529.7 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%; among which, industrial electricity consumption was 4,488 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, and high-tech and equipment manufacturing electricity consumption was 845.1 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%. Tertiary industry electricity consumption was 1,425.6 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%; among which, charging and swapping services and internet data services consumed 114.7 billion and 69.5 billion kilowatt-hours respectively, with growth rates reaching 55.1% and 42.5% respectively. Residential electricity consumption was 1,113.2 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%.

WTI struggles to prolong its two-day uptrend below $78, as negative sentiment undermines expectations for China-led oil demand

Daniel Rogers

Mar 02, 2023 15:46

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Following a two-day uptrend that reached the greatest levels in a fortnight, the price of WTI crude oil fluctuates between $77.80 and $90 early Thursday.

 

The recent struggles of the black gold may be related to the contradictory signals encircling China and the Oil equities. However, negative sentiment and the resurgence of the US Dollar appear to be the quote's greatest obstacles to the upside.

 

In addition, higher-than-anticipated US inventories weigh on the energy benchmark. The weekly data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates a 1.165M increase in Oil inventories, compared to the expected 0.45M increase and the previous level of 7.648M.

 

The willingness of US President Joseph Biden to continue pumping the markets with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and the absence of offers for Russian Oil also exert downward pressure on the price of WTI crude oil.

 

The latest New York Times (NYT) headlines suggest a potential rift between the United States and China at the important event. According to the news, "China is urging the start of peace talks, and some Group of 20 nations may support that notion when they meet in India, but U.S. officials contend Russia would not negotiate in good faith."

 

It should be noted, however, that the recent uptick in China activity data and optimistic remarks from the dragon nation's policymakers keep black gold purchasers optimistic. China's Minister of Human Resources recently stated, "China's employment will continue to increase this year and remains stable overall." On Wednesday, China's Finance Minister Liu He expressed a willingness to increase the country's fiscal expenditure while noting that the foundation of China's economic recovery remains fragile.

 

However, hawkish remarks from policymakers of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BoE), and the European Central Bank (ECB) highlighted the need for additional rate hikes to combat inflation issues, which exerted downward pressure on the price of oil.

 

In response to these events, 10-year US Treasury bond yields surpassed 4% for the first time since early November 2022, while 2-year yields ascended to their highest levels since June 2007 by flashing 4.91%. The increase in US Treasury bond yields reflects the market's concerns, which in turn have impacted on bulls on Wall Street, S&P 500 Futures, and WTI bulls recently. Consequently, S&P 500 Futures were down 0.5 percent as of press time despite the varied closing of Wall Street benchmarks.

 

Moving on, G20 updates could be combined with comments from central bankers and secondary US data to amuse Oil traders.


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