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June 29th - According to a survey released by Invesco, concerns about the US dollar are "widespread and deepening," with 61% of surveyed central banks stating that US debt levels negatively impact the dollars long-term status as a reserve asset, compared to 20% in 2024. While the Iran war has boosted the dollar by 3% this year, analysts say that US policy uncertainty and high debt levels suggest the dollar may weaken in the long term. Although any shift towards reducing dollar investments is likely to be gradual due to the lack of credible alternatives, the Invesco survey shows that 29% of respondents believe the dollars reserve currency status will weaken within five years, up from 12% in 2022. Invesco also noted that several institutions have reported reassessing their reliance on US custodians, counterparties, and clearing infrastructure due to geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, one-third of respondents indicated they intend to increase their gold holdings in response to the trend of investment diversification.Japans seasonally adjusted retail sales rose 1.9% month-on-month in May, compared with expectations of a -0.60% decline and a revised 2.10% increase in the previous month (originally 1.30%).Japans retail sales rose 5.3% year-on-year in May, below the expected 3.2% and the previous figure revised from 2.10% to 2.80%.Futures News, June 29th - According to foreign media reports, Malaysian crude palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange (BMD) are likely to open higher on Monday morning, mainly reflecting the rebound in international crude oil futures following the escalation of conflict in the Middle East over the weekend. Over the weekend, a Panamanian-flagged oil tanker was attacked by an Iranian drone in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a new round of attacks by the US Central Command, further escalating the conflict in the Middle East. This led to a rebound in international crude oil futures during Mondays electronic trading session, which will likely boost the early performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures. Strong Malaysian palm oil exports and Indonesias upcoming policy of blending palm oil-based biofuels are also bullish for the palm oil market.Sources say Venezuela’s Amuay refinery has shut down due to a power outage; its daily output is 64.5 barrels.

WTI struggles to prolong its two-day uptrend below $78, as negative sentiment undermines expectations for China-led oil demand

Daniel Rogers

Mar 02, 2023 15:46

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Following a two-day uptrend that reached the greatest levels in a fortnight, the price of WTI crude oil fluctuates between $77.80 and $90 early Thursday.

 

The recent struggles of the black gold may be related to the contradictory signals encircling China and the Oil equities. However, negative sentiment and the resurgence of the US Dollar appear to be the quote's greatest obstacles to the upside.

 

In addition, higher-than-anticipated US inventories weigh on the energy benchmark. The weekly data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates a 1.165M increase in Oil inventories, compared to the expected 0.45M increase and the previous level of 7.648M.

 

The willingness of US President Joseph Biden to continue pumping the markets with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and the absence of offers for Russian Oil also exert downward pressure on the price of WTI crude oil.

 

The latest New York Times (NYT) headlines suggest a potential rift between the United States and China at the important event. According to the news, "China is urging the start of peace talks, and some Group of 20 nations may support that notion when they meet in India, but U.S. officials contend Russia would not negotiate in good faith."

 

It should be noted, however, that the recent uptick in China activity data and optimistic remarks from the dragon nation's policymakers keep black gold purchasers optimistic. China's Minister of Human Resources recently stated, "China's employment will continue to increase this year and remains stable overall." On Wednesday, China's Finance Minister Liu He expressed a willingness to increase the country's fiscal expenditure while noting that the foundation of China's economic recovery remains fragile.

 

However, hawkish remarks from policymakers of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BoE), and the European Central Bank (ECB) highlighted the need for additional rate hikes to combat inflation issues, which exerted downward pressure on the price of oil.

 

In response to these events, 10-year US Treasury bond yields surpassed 4% for the first time since early November 2022, while 2-year yields ascended to their highest levels since June 2007 by flashing 4.91%. The increase in US Treasury bond yields reflects the market's concerns, which in turn have impacted on bulls on Wall Street, S&P 500 Futures, and WTI bulls recently. Consequently, S&P 500 Futures were down 0.5 percent as of press time despite the varied closing of Wall Street benchmarks.

 

Moving on, G20 updates could be combined with comments from central bankers and secondary US data to amuse Oil traders.


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