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July 17th - Eurozone inflation cooled slightly in June, remaining unchanged from the preliminary reading. Overall inflation was -0.1% month-on-month, primarily driven by a decline in energy price inflation (-1.8%). Looking at the breakdown, further cooling of energy prices led to a continued decline in overall year-on-year inflation, with the energy price inflation rate falling from 10.8% in May to 8.5% in June. Meanwhile, food and service price inflation also slowed further. The food price inflation rate fell from 1.9% in May to 1.5% in June, while the service price inflation rate fell from 3.5% to 3.2%. Overall, this pushed core inflation further lower. In summary, the inflation situation did not worsen in June, allowing the European Central Bank greater policy flexibility during the summer and more time to observe before deciding on its next monetary policy move. The current risk lies in the possibility that renewed tensions in the Middle East could trigger a new round of increases in oil and gas prices, further pushing up price pressures during the summer. In the longer term, this also increases the risk of a potential "second-round effect."The final reading of the Eurozones core CPI annual rate for June was 2.1%, compared to 2.2% previously.The final reading of the Eurozones June CPI annual rate was 2.8%, below the expected 2.80% and the previous reading of 2.80%.The final reading of the Eurozones core CPI for June was 0.2% month-on-month, unchanged from the previous month.The final reading of the Eurozones June CPI month-on-month rate was -0.1%, compared to a forecast of -0.10% and a previous reading of -0.10%.

WTI struggles to prolong its two-day uptrend below $78, as negative sentiment undermines expectations for China-led oil demand

Daniel Rogers

Mar 02, 2023 15:46

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Following a two-day uptrend that reached the greatest levels in a fortnight, the price of WTI crude oil fluctuates between $77.80 and $90 early Thursday.

 

The recent struggles of the black gold may be related to the contradictory signals encircling China and the Oil equities. However, negative sentiment and the resurgence of the US Dollar appear to be the quote's greatest obstacles to the upside.

 

In addition, higher-than-anticipated US inventories weigh on the energy benchmark. The weekly data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates a 1.165M increase in Oil inventories, compared to the expected 0.45M increase and the previous level of 7.648M.

 

The willingness of US President Joseph Biden to continue pumping the markets with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and the absence of offers for Russian Oil also exert downward pressure on the price of WTI crude oil.

 

The latest New York Times (NYT) headlines suggest a potential rift between the United States and China at the important event. According to the news, "China is urging the start of peace talks, and some Group of 20 nations may support that notion when they meet in India, but U.S. officials contend Russia would not negotiate in good faith."

 

It should be noted, however, that the recent uptick in China activity data and optimistic remarks from the dragon nation's policymakers keep black gold purchasers optimistic. China's Minister of Human Resources recently stated, "China's employment will continue to increase this year and remains stable overall." On Wednesday, China's Finance Minister Liu He expressed a willingness to increase the country's fiscal expenditure while noting that the foundation of China's economic recovery remains fragile.

 

However, hawkish remarks from policymakers of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BoE), and the European Central Bank (ECB) highlighted the need for additional rate hikes to combat inflation issues, which exerted downward pressure on the price of oil.

 

In response to these events, 10-year US Treasury bond yields surpassed 4% for the first time since early November 2022, while 2-year yields ascended to their highest levels since June 2007 by flashing 4.91%. The increase in US Treasury bond yields reflects the market's concerns, which in turn have impacted on bulls on Wall Street, S&P 500 Futures, and WTI bulls recently. Consequently, S&P 500 Futures were down 0.5 percent as of press time despite the varied closing of Wall Street benchmarks.

 

Moving on, G20 updates could be combined with comments from central bankers and secondary US data to amuse Oil traders.


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