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On August 3, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi spoke by phone with the Iraqi Foreign Minister, discussing the latest developments in the region, ways to strengthen bilateral and regional cooperation, and the most important issues of common concern to both countries.On August 3rd, US President Trump stated on Saturday evening (Eastern Time) that he would suspend a new round of attacks on Iran, awaiting the resumption of negotiations to end the war and restore cargo transport halted in the Strait of Hormuz. This is the latest example in a series of US presidents threatening large-scale attacks only to cancel them later. This sudden shift has become a prominent feature of the five-month-long US-Iran conflict. According to statistics, similar "scripts" have played out eight times so far. 1. April 7th: Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran less than two hours before the "deadline." At that time, he demanded Iran submit, or face attacks on bridges and power plants—which he claimed would mean "the destruction of an entire civilization." 2. April 21st: Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire agreement with Iran, just one day before the agreement expired, the same day the US launched attacks on Iranian oil tankers. 3. May 18th: After issuing harsh threats to Iran over the weekend, Trump stated he was suspending a large-scale military strike plan because "serious negotiations" were underway. By May 27th, the negotiations had broken down, and the US resumed attacks. 4. June 11: After two days of mutual attacks, Trump escalated his threats further, saying the U.S. would "strike hard tonight" Iran and "take full control" of its oil and gas industry. However, hours later, Trump posted on social media that negotiations had made a breakthrough and canceled the strikes. 5. June 17: Trump and Iran signed a preliminary agreement requiring a permanent cessation of hostilities and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while launching a 60-day countdown to negotiations to reach a final agreement on the future of Irans nuclear program. 6. July 7: Following Iranian attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz, Trump launched new strikes against Iran while attending the NATO leaders summit in Ankara, Turkey. He then again threatened to "get the job done," saying he believed the ceasefire was over. 7. July 27: Trump said he had paused two weeks of intensive daily strikes against Iran to give negotiations another chance. During the 13-day strikes, the U.S. military targeted key military and commercial facilities as tensions along shipping routes continued to escalate. 8. August 1: After telling reporters that the United States would strike Iran “severely,” Trump said on social media that he had canceled the planned strike, claiming that Middle Eastern allies had reached a framework agreement to end the war, including reopening the Straits.On August 3, according to US media Semafor, a Senate continuing resolution introduced by Senators Collins and Murray has been passed. The bill would provide government funding until December 11. The bill blocks a new rule that would allow the government to cancel funding to states such as blue states. Collins stated that the bill "prevents the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) from enacting its proposed rule regarding federal financial aid." Murray stated, "This bill blocks the implementation of this corrupt new OMB appropriations rule during the continuing resolutions validity period. This proposed rule would systematically politicize federal funding and allow Trump administration officials to cancel appropriations at any time for any reason."August 3 - The China Earthquake Networks Center officially measured a 3.3-magnitude earthquake at 03:29 on August 3 in Gao County, Yibin City, Sichuan Province (28.55 degrees north latitude, 104.67 degrees east longitude), with a focal depth of 5 kilometers.August 3rd - According to the Financial Times, British pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca has been exploring a merger with its US rival Bristol-Myers Squibb, which would create one of the worlds largest pharmaceutical groups with a market capitalization of nearly $400 billion. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that the two companies have been in talks regarding the merger for several months, and negotiations may reach an agreement soon, but there is also a possibility of delays or a breakdown. AstraZeneca is the UKs second-largest listed company by market capitalization, at approximately £196 billion, while Bristol-Myers Squibb has a market capitalization of approximately $133 billion. If the deal is completed, it will be one of the largest corporate mergers and acquisitions in history. This transaction would further accelerate the British pharmaceutical giants strategic shift towards the US market.

WTI struggles to prolong its two-day uptrend below $78, as negative sentiment undermines expectations for China-led oil demand

Daniel Rogers

Mar 02, 2023 15:46

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Following a two-day uptrend that reached the greatest levels in a fortnight, the price of WTI crude oil fluctuates between $77.80 and $90 early Thursday.

 

The recent struggles of the black gold may be related to the contradictory signals encircling China and the Oil equities. However, negative sentiment and the resurgence of the US Dollar appear to be the quote's greatest obstacles to the upside.

 

In addition, higher-than-anticipated US inventories weigh on the energy benchmark. The weekly data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates a 1.165M increase in Oil inventories, compared to the expected 0.45M increase and the previous level of 7.648M.

 

The willingness of US President Joseph Biden to continue pumping the markets with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and the absence of offers for Russian Oil also exert downward pressure on the price of WTI crude oil.

 

The latest New York Times (NYT) headlines suggest a potential rift between the United States and China at the important event. According to the news, "China is urging the start of peace talks, and some Group of 20 nations may support that notion when they meet in India, but U.S. officials contend Russia would not negotiate in good faith."

 

It should be noted, however, that the recent uptick in China activity data and optimistic remarks from the dragon nation's policymakers keep black gold purchasers optimistic. China's Minister of Human Resources recently stated, "China's employment will continue to increase this year and remains stable overall." On Wednesday, China's Finance Minister Liu He expressed a willingness to increase the country's fiscal expenditure while noting that the foundation of China's economic recovery remains fragile.

 

However, hawkish remarks from policymakers of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BoE), and the European Central Bank (ECB) highlighted the need for additional rate hikes to combat inflation issues, which exerted downward pressure on the price of oil.

 

In response to these events, 10-year US Treasury bond yields surpassed 4% for the first time since early November 2022, while 2-year yields ascended to their highest levels since June 2007 by flashing 4.91%. The increase in US Treasury bond yields reflects the market's concerns, which in turn have impacted on bulls on Wall Street, S&P 500 Futures, and WTI bulls recently. Consequently, S&P 500 Futures were down 0.5 percent as of press time despite the varied closing of Wall Street benchmarks.

 

Moving on, G20 updates could be combined with comments from central bankers and secondary US data to amuse Oil traders.