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1. Agricultural consultancy AgRural reported on Monday that as of last Thursday, the second-season corn harvest in Brazils south-central region for 2026 was 60% complete, up from 49% the previous week but down from 68% at the same time last year. AgRural stated that while the overall harvest progress was acceptable last week, some producing areas lost momentum due to returning rains, particularly in Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul, and southern São Paulo, where rainfall hampered field operations. 2. The Saudi Ministry of Defense stated that it intercepted and destroyed drones launched from Iraqi territory. These drones, belonging to Iranian-backed militias, targeted oil facilities in the eastern region and Riyadh. The Ministry reiterated Saudi Arabias right to respond. 3. A statement indicated that the Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed to have used drones to target Saudi oil transportation infrastructure. 4. According to Futures Daily, on July 27th, a document from EVE Energy titled "Price Adjustment Letter Regarding the Transmission of Consumption Tax Costs" circulated within the lithium battery industry. The price adjustment letter indicates that, according to Announcement No. 20 of 2026 issued by the Ministry of Finance, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Taxation Administration, the national consumption tax on lithium primary batteries and lithium-ion batteries will be gradually reinstated starting September 1, 2026. This policy represents a legally mandated rigid cost change, and the company and its subsidiaries will transmit the consumption tax costs in accordance with the rules. According to reports, EVE Energys price adjustment letter is the first formal notification from a leading domestic battery company to its customers regarding cost transmission after the implementation of the new battery consumption tax policy. 5. Data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows that private exporters reported selling 132,000 tons of soybeans to China and 126,000 tons to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2026/2027 marketing year. 6. Goldman Sachs: If a new agreement is reached between the U.S. and Iran in the coming days or weeks, we expect the risk premium for TTF to decrease significantly, potentially falling below €50/MWh. If Middle Eastern energy exports only gradually return to normal by 2027, TTF natural gas prices are expected to rise to over €100/MWh by December 2026. 7. Citigroup traders are betting the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this week. According to Akshay Singal, the banks global head of short-term interest rate trading, their positions will profit if the Fed keeps rates stable. Singal stated, "We still maintain our expectation that interest rates will remain unchanged." He added that Fed Chairman Warsh has clearly stated that he wants the market to focus on data, and the data indicates that the Fed does not currently need to raise rates. 8. According to foreign media reports, the South African Sugar Industry Association (SA Canegrowers) has urgently appealed to Trade, Industry and Competition Minister ParksTau to intervene and ultimately complete an update to the sugar import tariff mechanism to reflect the current situation in the domestic sugar market.The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Employment Index for July was 12.2, down from 13.9 in July.The Dallas Feds new orders index for July was 6.4, down from 2.3 in the previous month.The Dallas Feds manufactured goods price index for July was 25.6, compared to 28.6 in the previous month.The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Raw Materials Payments Index for July was 41.3, compared to 42.4 in the previous month.

WTI struggles to prolong its two-day uptrend below $78, as negative sentiment undermines expectations for China-led oil demand

Daniel Rogers

Mar 02, 2023 15:46

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Following a two-day uptrend that reached the greatest levels in a fortnight, the price of WTI crude oil fluctuates between $77.80 and $90 early Thursday.

 

The recent struggles of the black gold may be related to the contradictory signals encircling China and the Oil equities. However, negative sentiment and the resurgence of the US Dollar appear to be the quote's greatest obstacles to the upside.

 

In addition, higher-than-anticipated US inventories weigh on the energy benchmark. The weekly data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates a 1.165M increase in Oil inventories, compared to the expected 0.45M increase and the previous level of 7.648M.

 

The willingness of US President Joseph Biden to continue pumping the markets with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and the absence of offers for Russian Oil also exert downward pressure on the price of WTI crude oil.

 

The latest New York Times (NYT) headlines suggest a potential rift between the United States and China at the important event. According to the news, "China is urging the start of peace talks, and some Group of 20 nations may support that notion when they meet in India, but U.S. officials contend Russia would not negotiate in good faith."

 

It should be noted, however, that the recent uptick in China activity data and optimistic remarks from the dragon nation's policymakers keep black gold purchasers optimistic. China's Minister of Human Resources recently stated, "China's employment will continue to increase this year and remains stable overall." On Wednesday, China's Finance Minister Liu He expressed a willingness to increase the country's fiscal expenditure while noting that the foundation of China's economic recovery remains fragile.

 

However, hawkish remarks from policymakers of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BoE), and the European Central Bank (ECB) highlighted the need for additional rate hikes to combat inflation issues, which exerted downward pressure on the price of oil.

 

In response to these events, 10-year US Treasury bond yields surpassed 4% for the first time since early November 2022, while 2-year yields ascended to their highest levels since June 2007 by flashing 4.91%. The increase in US Treasury bond yields reflects the market's concerns, which in turn have impacted on bulls on Wall Street, S&P 500 Futures, and WTI bulls recently. Consequently, S&P 500 Futures were down 0.5 percent as of press time despite the varied closing of Wall Street benchmarks.

 

Moving on, G20 updates could be combined with comments from central bankers and secondary US data to amuse Oil traders.