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August 31 – Data from ship tracking and trade sources indicates that Asian diesel exports to Africa are expected to reach a new high in at least four and a half years in August. This follows a decline in Middle Eastern diesel shipments, prompting African buyers to seek alternative supply sources. Data from Kpler, Vortexa, and a trade source shows that Asia, including India, will export 1.8 million to 2 million tons of diesel to Africa this month, equivalent to 13.4 million to 14.9 million barrels. Meanwhile, data from LSEG, Kpler, and the aforementioned trade source shows that Middle Eastern diesel exports to Africa fell to 600,000 to 800,000 tons in August, the lowest level in nearly nine years, due to ongoing shipping risks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz. According to Kpler, approximately 50% of Africas diesel imports last year came from the Middle East, with 40% originating from Saudi Arabia. Multiple trade sources indicated that declining operating rates at some of Saudi Aramcos refineries, including those in Jizan, have further limited Saudi diesel exports. According to Kpler data, diesel shipments from the Jizan refinery to Africa fell to zero in August, compared to 163,000 tons in July.German Chancellor Merz: Our country has enormous potential, and we must make full use of that potential.1. Key Market Trends: Today, most domestic futures contracts rose, with the energy and chemical and coal chains becoming the absolute core of the market. The surge in crude oil futures triggered bullish sentiment in downstream chemical products, with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) rising over 8%, crude oil over 7%, coking coal over 6%, and methanol, propylene, polyvinyl chloride (PVC), and ethylene glycol experiencing violent surges, hitting their daily limit. 2. Guangfa Futures View: The main trading logic for August methanol futures continued to be the Middle East situation, with repeated geopolitical risks providing a floor for the market. Although the fading geopolitical premium may lead to a pullback after a surge, the downside is limited by low inventory levels and plant maintenance. It is expected that in September, methanol prices will be driven by improved downstream demand during the traditional "Golden September" period and a significant reduction in imports, widening the market gap and potentially leading to a volatile but slightly upward trend. 3. Foshan Financial Holdings Futures View: Crude oil experienced wide fluctuations due to geopolitical disturbances, coal strengthened, and while cost support for ethylene glycol remains, it is unstable. Current supply is moderately increasing while demand recovery is limited, but inventories at major ports in East China continue to decline significantly, and recent arrivals are expected to remain low. Overall, the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with low inventories providing support for prices. 4. Core Industry Data: According to CCF, ethylene glycol port inventories in some major ports in East China recently decreased significantly by 83,000 tons week-on-week; according to Longzhong Information, methanol enterprise inventories decreased by 14,000 tons during the same period, while port and social inventories accumulated slightly. 5. Everbright Futures View: The main logic of the current market is: renewed restrictions on cross-strait navigation, the resumption of the US-Iran conflict, or the substantial disruption of Russian oil exports, which may amplify the elasticity of oil prices under a low inventory environment. Federal Reserve Chairman Warshs firmly hawkish stance at the Jackson Hole symposium on August 28th has increased the probability of a Fed rate hike, creating a negative feedback loop of "oil price—inflation—interest rate," with a strong dollar and high real interest rates suppressing speculative bulls. However, the financial attributes of oil prices are currently weakening, with commodity attributes providing a floor and geopolitical attributes determining the direction. Based on the projected trajectory of oil prices in September, the combination of low inventories and expectations of a delayed supply recovery may continue to support high-level price fluctuations. At the same time, attention should be paid to the varying strengths of the three major oil types, reflecting the structural contradictions in global market pricing, which may result in an overall performance of SC > WTI > Brent oil prices. (The above content is compiled from publicly available market data from Everbright Futures, GF Futures, etc., and is for reference only, not constituting investment advice.)The yield on Japans 30-year government bonds rose 2.5 basis points to 4.145%.On August 31, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) – International Telecommunication Union (ITU) High-Level Seminar on "Space for Development" opened in Shanghai. The three-day seminar includes keynote speeches, roundtable discussions, and field visits, focusing on topics such as space services issues discussed at the World Radiocommunication Conference, opportunities for space-ground integrated operations, the large-scale application of the BeiDou Navigation Satellite System, and the integrated development of space and ground systems. The seminar will feature thematic sharing on the ITUs space rules framework and the space service regulatory practices of various countries, and will host several roundtable discussions on topics such as "Space for Development" and "New Challenges in Frequency and Orbit Resource Management." Participants will exchange views on issues such as space governance, frequency and orbit coordination, and industrial empowerment of developing countries.

WTI struggles to prolong its two-day uptrend below $78, as negative sentiment undermines expectations for China-led oil demand

Daniel Rogers

Mar 02, 2023 15:46

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Following a two-day uptrend that reached the greatest levels in a fortnight, the price of WTI crude oil fluctuates between $77.80 and $90 early Thursday.

 

The recent struggles of the black gold may be related to the contradictory signals encircling China and the Oil equities. However, negative sentiment and the resurgence of the US Dollar appear to be the quote's greatest obstacles to the upside.

 

In addition, higher-than-anticipated US inventories weigh on the energy benchmark. The weekly data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates a 1.165M increase in Oil inventories, compared to the expected 0.45M increase and the previous level of 7.648M.

 

The willingness of US President Joseph Biden to continue pumping the markets with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and the absence of offers for Russian Oil also exert downward pressure on the price of WTI crude oil.

 

The latest New York Times (NYT) headlines suggest a potential rift between the United States and China at the important event. According to the news, "China is urging the start of peace talks, and some Group of 20 nations may support that notion when they meet in India, but U.S. officials contend Russia would not negotiate in good faith."

 

It should be noted, however, that the recent uptick in China activity data and optimistic remarks from the dragon nation's policymakers keep black gold purchasers optimistic. China's Minister of Human Resources recently stated, "China's employment will continue to increase this year and remains stable overall." On Wednesday, China's Finance Minister Liu He expressed a willingness to increase the country's fiscal expenditure while noting that the foundation of China's economic recovery remains fragile.

 

However, hawkish remarks from policymakers of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BoE), and the European Central Bank (ECB) highlighted the need for additional rate hikes to combat inflation issues, which exerted downward pressure on the price of oil.

 

In response to these events, 10-year US Treasury bond yields surpassed 4% for the first time since early November 2022, while 2-year yields ascended to their highest levels since June 2007 by flashing 4.91%. The increase in US Treasury bond yields reflects the market's concerns, which in turn have impacted on bulls on Wall Street, S&P 500 Futures, and WTI bulls recently. Consequently, S&P 500 Futures were down 0.5 percent as of press time despite the varied closing of Wall Street benchmarks.

 

Moving on, G20 updates could be combined with comments from central bankers and secondary US data to amuse Oil traders.