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August 23 - The bond market has recently sent a clear signal to Treasury Secretary Bessant: dont try to sweep $40 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds under the rug and pretend everything is fine. Bessant announced plans to increase long-term Treasury repurchases this fall, pledged to use the Treasurys vast "toolbox" to support the market, and discussed upcoming measures to curb the ever-expanding U.S. debt burden. John Arnold, a former Enron energy trader, billionaire, and founder of the philanthropic venture capital firm Arnold, said the summers bond market turmoil may ultimately be just "another quickly subsided episode," but the bigger concern is that the lack of change in the U.S. fiscal situation will persist until it finally triggers a crisis. Tracy Chan, a global portfolio manager at Brandiwin, said she is very nervous because Bessant has failed to curb long-term Treasury yields. The bond markets performance suggests that bond vigilantes still dont trust him. Bessant needs to do more to convince investors that the Trump administration is serious about U.S. fiscal issues, but talking about increasing revenue through tax increases or austerity measures before the November midterm elections will be unpopular.On August 23, according to the Wall Street Journal, Russian military officers flew from St. Petersburg to the Kaliningrad exclave last month. Western intelligence officials said these officers oversaw mobilization preparations and procedures for the regions residents, including specific details on how to house, supply, and arm mobilization personnel. Intelligence officials stated that the planning exercises in Kaliningrad were just one of many nationwide drills designed to prepare for a "call to arms." Officials said the Kremlin has not yet decided whether to actually carry out such an operation, and a decision is likely to be made after the parliamentary elections at the end of September. However, despite the slow and costly progress, Putins determination to seize the entire Donbas region of eastern Ukraine may force him to take action. Kaliningrad, the location of last months mobilization test exercises, has recently received increasing attention. Western intelligence officials have warned that the exclave could play a role in Moscows military plans.August 23 – According to the Jerusalem Post and Al Mayadeen TV, a senior Iranian official stated that Iran has been invited to join the Mecca Mutual Defense Agreement established earlier this month by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan. The invitation has not yet been officially confirmed by the Iranian Foreign Ministry or any of the three parties to the agreement. Mehdi Rahimi, head of the Islamic Consultative Conference News Agency, stated that Iran has received an invitation to join the Mecca Agreement, and the matter is under review. Rahimi added that countries in the region are "moving in the direction of seeking a regional security umbrella," and called this a victory for Iran, as it has long been advocating for this.On August 23, Syrian Transitional Government Foreign Minister Shibani stated in an interview with Reuters on the 22nd that Syria expects to resume negotiations with Israel soon on a security agreement, hoping the agreement will facilitate Israels withdrawal from Syrian territory. Shibani said that negotiations between Syria and Israel on a security agreement have been stalled since the outbreak of the US-Israel-Iraq conflict this year, but he anticipates they will resume. The United States is pressuring Israel to return to dialogue. Shibani also stated that the Syrian Transitional Government "currently does not trust Israel," but the current priority is to stop Israeli attacks, therefore "confidence-building measures" are needed. Communication between Syria and Israel was severed after the attack on Syrias Abu Zukur airbase on August 18.August 23 - According to foreign media reports, the US Navy is testing a new air-to-air missile capable of striking targets more than 290 miles (465 kilometers) away, significantly exceeding the range of other known similar weapons. The US Navy states that the AIM-424 "Malice" missile, developed by Raytheon, a subsidiary of RTX Corporation, is roughly the same size as the currently deployed AIM-120 "Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile" (AMRAAM). This means the missile can be fitted into the internal weapons bays of F-35 and F-22 stealth fighters. Peter Layton, a former Royal Australian Air Force officer and visiting scholar at the Griffith Asia Institute, stated that while missiles with this range could be used to strike high-value aerial targets such as command aircraft or refueling aircraft, they may be even more valuable for defending ships.

WTI struggles to prolong its two-day uptrend below $78, as negative sentiment undermines expectations for China-led oil demand

Daniel Rogers

Mar 02, 2023 15:46

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Following a two-day uptrend that reached the greatest levels in a fortnight, the price of WTI crude oil fluctuates between $77.80 and $90 early Thursday.

 

The recent struggles of the black gold may be related to the contradictory signals encircling China and the Oil equities. However, negative sentiment and the resurgence of the US Dollar appear to be the quote's greatest obstacles to the upside.

 

In addition, higher-than-anticipated US inventories weigh on the energy benchmark. The weekly data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates a 1.165M increase in Oil inventories, compared to the expected 0.45M increase and the previous level of 7.648M.

 

The willingness of US President Joseph Biden to continue pumping the markets with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and the absence of offers for Russian Oil also exert downward pressure on the price of WTI crude oil.

 

The latest New York Times (NYT) headlines suggest a potential rift between the United States and China at the important event. According to the news, "China is urging the start of peace talks, and some Group of 20 nations may support that notion when they meet in India, but U.S. officials contend Russia would not negotiate in good faith."

 

It should be noted, however, that the recent uptick in China activity data and optimistic remarks from the dragon nation's policymakers keep black gold purchasers optimistic. China's Minister of Human Resources recently stated, "China's employment will continue to increase this year and remains stable overall." On Wednesday, China's Finance Minister Liu He expressed a willingness to increase the country's fiscal expenditure while noting that the foundation of China's economic recovery remains fragile.

 

However, hawkish remarks from policymakers of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BoE), and the European Central Bank (ECB) highlighted the need for additional rate hikes to combat inflation issues, which exerted downward pressure on the price of oil.

 

In response to these events, 10-year US Treasury bond yields surpassed 4% for the first time since early November 2022, while 2-year yields ascended to their highest levels since June 2007 by flashing 4.91%. The increase in US Treasury bond yields reflects the market's concerns, which in turn have impacted on bulls on Wall Street, S&P 500 Futures, and WTI bulls recently. Consequently, S&P 500 Futures were down 0.5 percent as of press time despite the varied closing of Wall Street benchmarks.

 

Moving on, G20 updates could be combined with comments from central bankers and secondary US data to amuse Oil traders.