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On July 29th, Paul Christopher, Global Head of Investment Strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, stated that he expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged. The easing of inflation in June provides policymakers with an opportunity to extend the pause in rate hikes and await further data. Luis Alvarado, Co-Head of Global Fixed Income Strategy at the Institute, pointed out that Warsh has made it clear that "bringing inflation back to 2% remains the Feds top priority, and policymakers have virtually zero tolerance for a rebound in price pressures. We believe he genuinely believes the Fed can achieve this goal." Alvarado stated that the biggest change Warsh might bring is in the communication style, especially forward guidance. Investors should expect increased policy flexibility and potentially greater market volatility between meetings. For Warsh, the ability to act and react flexibly to changing circumstances remains crucial.On July 29, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, together with 18 other departments including the National Development and Reform Commission, jointly released the "National 15th Five-Year Plan for Addressing Climate Change" today (July 29). The plan systematically outlines the goals and tasks for addressing climate change during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, providing clear guidance for climate change work over the next five years. According to the plan, by 2030, carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will decrease by 17% compared to 2025; carbon dioxide emissions per unit of product in industries covered by the national carbon emission trading market will decrease by about 3% compared to 2025; a national voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market that is trustworthy, transparent, methodologically unified, widely participated, and aligned with international standards will be established; a product carbon footprint management system will be basically established; monitoring and control of non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases will be strengthened; a carbon dioxide equivalent emission reduction capacity of 30 million tons will be formed; the climate change adaptation work system will be further improved; phased progress will be made in the construction of a climate-resilient society; and awareness and capacity for addressing climate change will be continuously enhanced. my countrys influence, guidance, shaping power, and moral appeal in global climate governance will be significantly enhanced.July 29 - Generali Investments senior economist, Paul Zangieli, is closely watching the Federal Reserves communications. He expects the FOMC to "maintain or even strengthen its hawkish tone, as persistent inflation, rising oil prices, and internal divisions within the FOMC leave the door open for further policy tightening later this year."July 29th - James Lagan, co-chief investment officer and head of investment management and research at investment bank DA Davidson, stated that since the Feds last meeting, inflation data has been moderate and job growth has been modest, but the escalation of the US-Iran military conflict in July disrupted these positive trends. This means that the overall inflation progress made in June may be reversed, and the Fed must assess whether the core inflation trend is more sustainable. If the Fed determines that higher inflation expectations are forming, they should raise interest rates in July, rather than waiting until September. Especially considering the midterm elections later this year, taking action at that time could invite political criticism.July 29 – South Koreas population has grown for the third consecutive year, with an increase in foreign residents offsetting a continued decline in domestic residents, highlighting the countrys growing reliance on overseas workers in addressing rapid aging and a shrinking workforce. Statistics Korea said on Tuesday that the national population will reach 51.8 million in 2025, an increase of 12,000 from the previous year. The number of Korean citizens has declined for the fifth consecutive year to 49.7 million, while the number of foreign residents has risen to a record high of 2.1 million, accounting for 4.1% of the total population. South Korea, along with Japan, Italy, and a few other countries, has officially joined the ranks of "super-aged societies," with the population aged 65 and over accounting for 20.7% of the total population. The proportion of the population aged 15 to 64 has fallen below 70% for the first time. According to Statistics Korea, the working-age population decreased by 393,000 from the previous year. The latest data shows that foreign residents are playing an increasingly important role in South Koreas workforce. Nearly 89.3% of foreign residents are of working age, compared to 68.4% of the Korean citizen population. The foreign resident population has been increasing year by year since 2022, while the South Korean population has been declining year by year since 2021.

WTI struggles to prolong its two-day uptrend below $78, as negative sentiment undermines expectations for China-led oil demand

Daniel Rogers

Mar 02, 2023 15:46

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Following a two-day uptrend that reached the greatest levels in a fortnight, the price of WTI crude oil fluctuates between $77.80 and $90 early Thursday.

 

The recent struggles of the black gold may be related to the contradictory signals encircling China and the Oil equities. However, negative sentiment and the resurgence of the US Dollar appear to be the quote's greatest obstacles to the upside.

 

In addition, higher-than-anticipated US inventories weigh on the energy benchmark. The weekly data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates a 1.165M increase in Oil inventories, compared to the expected 0.45M increase and the previous level of 7.648M.

 

The willingness of US President Joseph Biden to continue pumping the markets with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and the absence of offers for Russian Oil also exert downward pressure on the price of WTI crude oil.

 

The latest New York Times (NYT) headlines suggest a potential rift between the United States and China at the important event. According to the news, "China is urging the start of peace talks, and some Group of 20 nations may support that notion when they meet in India, but U.S. officials contend Russia would not negotiate in good faith."

 

It should be noted, however, that the recent uptick in China activity data and optimistic remarks from the dragon nation's policymakers keep black gold purchasers optimistic. China's Minister of Human Resources recently stated, "China's employment will continue to increase this year and remains stable overall." On Wednesday, China's Finance Minister Liu He expressed a willingness to increase the country's fiscal expenditure while noting that the foundation of China's economic recovery remains fragile.

 

However, hawkish remarks from policymakers of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BoE), and the European Central Bank (ECB) highlighted the need for additional rate hikes to combat inflation issues, which exerted downward pressure on the price of oil.

 

In response to these events, 10-year US Treasury bond yields surpassed 4% for the first time since early November 2022, while 2-year yields ascended to their highest levels since June 2007 by flashing 4.91%. The increase in US Treasury bond yields reflects the market's concerns, which in turn have impacted on bulls on Wall Street, S&P 500 Futures, and WTI bulls recently. Consequently, S&P 500 Futures were down 0.5 percent as of press time despite the varied closing of Wall Street benchmarks.

 

Moving on, G20 updates could be combined with comments from central bankers and secondary US data to amuse Oil traders.