EUR/USD 1.15405
-0.014%
Gold 4412.57
0.509%
Oil 81.367
-0.090%
USD/JPY 159.229
-0.045%
GBP/USD 1.35067
0.001%
GBP/JPY 215.069
-0.041%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
Hong Kong stocks in the new consumption sector fluctuated and weakened, with Shanghai Auntie (02589.HK) falling more than 3%, Laopu Gold (06181.HK) falling more than 2%, and Guming (01364.HK) and Mingming Very Busy (01768.HK) following suit.August 11th - According to Jiji Press, citing sources, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may consider raising interest rates again at its next policy meeting on September 17-18, following its June rate hike, to address rising inflation risks. Japanese prices are likely to rise further due to rapid growth in demand related to artificial intelligence, a sharp depreciation of the yen, and rising oil prices. Previously, many financial market participants expected the BOJ to raise interest rates approximately every six months. However, according to the meeting summary released on Monday, some policy board members at the BOJs latest policy-making meeting held on July 30-31 indicated that the pace of rate hikes should be accelerated. One member stated that "the pace of policy rate increases may exceed market expectations," while another member stated that the BOJ needs to "accelerate the pace of adjustment in the degree of monetary easing."On August 11th, TD Securities predicted that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would maintain its interest rate at 4.35%. This baseline scenario is largely in line with market consensus and overnight index swap pricing, which indicated a near-zero probability of a rate hike today. This means the interest rate decision itself poses very limited risk of surprise to the Australian dollar or the interest rate market. A more significant signal may come from the Monetary Policy Statement released alongside the rate decision. TD Securities expects the RBA to resist a significant downward revision of its inflation forecast despite weaker-than-expected cut-off mean CPI data, citing persistent upside risks to the inflation outlook from high oil prices. This combination of "confirmation of holding rates steady" and "cautious rather than dovish forecast revisions" suggests a relatively mild market reaction. Any surprises are more likely to stem from the tone of the forecasts wording than from the rate decision itself.1. Capital Economics: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hold rates steady, with the next move likely to be a rate cut, but no earlier than the second half of 2027. 2. Commerzbank: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady, and in the medium term, the RBAs next move after holding rates steady will be a rate cut. 3. MFS Investment Management: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady, while reiterating its readiness to further tighten policy to address persistently high inflation. 4. Wells Fargo: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady, with a 25 basis point rate hike anticipated in September, followed by a gradual easing cycle in the second half of 2027. 5. IFM Investors: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady, with second-quarter CPI data giving the bank reason to remain cautious, but it has not locked in a rate cut as the next move. 6. Westpac: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady, as the energy cost pass-through to consumers caused by the Middle East conflict has not yet been sustained, but the bank will maintain a hawkish stance. 7. Commonwealth Bank of Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hold rates steady and continue using hawkish rhetoric. However, if the bank lowers its inflation forecast, the market will interpret this as opening the door to further easing. 8. ING: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady. Overall, price pressures have eased faster than the RBA anticipated, further strengthening the case for keeping rates unchanged until the end of the year. 9. TD Securities: The RBA is expected to hold rates steady. Despite weaker-than-expected CPI data, the bank will not significantly lower its inflation forecast, citing persistent upside risks to the inflation outlook due to high oil prices.Futures News, August 11th: Over the weekend, negotiations between Iran and the US failed as Iran raised its conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which the US found unacceptable. With the Strait remaining closed, oil prices continued to rise, with US crude oil fluctuating above $80. Zhuochuang Information predicts that continued attention should be paid to the progress of US-Iran negotiations. Trump has also raised his demands, leading to a stalemate. Given the closure of the Strait and the reduced efficiency of tanker passage, oil prices are expected to remain relatively strong.

WTI struggles to prolong its two-day uptrend below $78, as negative sentiment undermines expectations for China-led oil demand

Daniel Rogers

Mar 02, 2023 15:46

66.png

 

Following a two-day uptrend that reached the greatest levels in a fortnight, the price of WTI crude oil fluctuates between $77.80 and $90 early Thursday.

 

The recent struggles of the black gold may be related to the contradictory signals encircling China and the Oil equities. However, negative sentiment and the resurgence of the US Dollar appear to be the quote's greatest obstacles to the upside.

 

In addition, higher-than-anticipated US inventories weigh on the energy benchmark. The weekly data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates a 1.165M increase in Oil inventories, compared to the expected 0.45M increase and the previous level of 7.648M.

 

The willingness of US President Joseph Biden to continue pumping the markets with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and the absence of offers for Russian Oil also exert downward pressure on the price of WTI crude oil.

 

The latest New York Times (NYT) headlines suggest a potential rift between the United States and China at the important event. According to the news, "China is urging the start of peace talks, and some Group of 20 nations may support that notion when they meet in India, but U.S. officials contend Russia would not negotiate in good faith."

 

It should be noted, however, that the recent uptick in China activity data and optimistic remarks from the dragon nation's policymakers keep black gold purchasers optimistic. China's Minister of Human Resources recently stated, "China's employment will continue to increase this year and remains stable overall." On Wednesday, China's Finance Minister Liu He expressed a willingness to increase the country's fiscal expenditure while noting that the foundation of China's economic recovery remains fragile.

 

However, hawkish remarks from policymakers of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BoE), and the European Central Bank (ECB) highlighted the need for additional rate hikes to combat inflation issues, which exerted downward pressure on the price of oil.

 

In response to these events, 10-year US Treasury bond yields surpassed 4% for the first time since early November 2022, while 2-year yields ascended to their highest levels since June 2007 by flashing 4.91%. The increase in US Treasury bond yields reflects the market's concerns, which in turn have impacted on bulls on Wall Street, S&P 500 Futures, and WTI bulls recently. Consequently, S&P 500 Futures were down 0.5 percent as of press time despite the varied closing of Wall Street benchmarks.

 

Moving on, G20 updates could be combined with comments from central bankers and secondary US data to amuse Oil traders.


Suggestion