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① Iran 1. The Iranian Foreign Minister will travel to Baghdad tomorrow. 2. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard says it will take a tougher stance against "violations" by vessels. 3. About 30% of the Iranian population will attend the funeral of the late Supreme Leader. 4. Affected by the Middle East conflict, Irans inflation rate rose sharply to 88.6% year-on-year in June. 5. Following the US strikes against Iran, Iranian drones attacked Bahrain and oil tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. 6. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps destroyed eight key US military infrastructure sites at the Ali Salim Air Base in Kuwait and the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain. ② United States 1. The US strikes Iran again; explosions are heard in the Sirik region. 2. Trump says the US military strikes Iranian missile and drone storage sites. 3. According to CNN: US officials say that when Iran claimed to have attacked US targets in the Middle East, the US "detected several drones," but these drones did not hit their targets. ③ Israel 1. Israeli forces strike southern Lebanon again after the US-Lebanon framework agreement. 2. Israeli Prime Minister: Israel retains all the necessary "safe zones" along its northern border. 3. Israeli National Security Minister: The Lebanon-Israel-US framework agreement is a "major mistake." 4. Israeli official: If Hezbollah launches an attack, Israel will respond strongly. 5. Israeli Defense Minister: Has instructed the Israeli military to prepare for a long-term presence in the "safe zone" in southern Lebanon. 6. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu: We are breaking Irans diplomatic axis. We have reached a framework agreement that allows us to end the conflict with Lebanon. ④ Other situations: 1. US media: Trump and Netanyahu have been communicating much less than before. 2. UAE Foreign Minister praises the efforts of the Lebanese and Israeli governments in reaching a framework agreement. 3. Hezbollah: The Israel-Lebanon framework agreement is invalid; refuses to link Israeli troop withdrawal with Hezbollahs disarmament. 4. French Foreign Ministry: Willing to contribute to the implementation of the framework agreement between Lebanon and Israel. 5. Joint Maritime Information Center: Raises the maritime security threat level in the Strait of Hormuz from "medium" to "high". 6. Following the Iranian Revolutionary Guards strike on vessels violating regulations, more ships are seeking permission from Iran. 7. Security sources say an explosive drone attack struck a camp of an Iranian Kurdish opposition group north of Erbil, Iraq. 8. The Lebanese presidential palace stated that Lebanese President Aoun, in a phone call with US President Trump, said Lebanon would assume responsibility for implementing the framework agreement with Israel. President Aoun has requested US assistance to prevent violations of the agreement and to pressure Israel to withdraw from the southern region.According to Fox News: The latest round of US strikes against Iran is larger than last nights operation. US and Bahraini forces shot down nine Iranian drones that were heading towards US forces in Bahrain.According to the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB): Several shells struck a village on Qeshm Island.On June 28, U.S. Central Command issued a statement saying that on June 27, under the command of the Commander-in-Chief, U.S. Central Command forces conducted additional strikes against multiple Iranian targets. Following yesterdays U.S. strikes against Iran in response to its attack on the cargo ship "M/V EverLovely," Iran had an opportunity to uphold the ceasefire agreement, but its forces launched a one-way attack drone strike this morning (4:30 AM ET on Saturday), hitting and destroying the oil tanker "M/T Kiku." The Panamanian-flagged tanker was sailing near the Strait of Hormuz at the time, carrying more than two million barrels of crude oil. Today, U.S. Central Command forces responded to Irans continued attacks on merchant ships, with U.S. warplanes striking Iranian military surveillance facilities, communication systems, air defense sites, drone storage facilities, and mine-laying capabilities. Merchant ships continue to transit the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. military remains vigilant and ready to respond.June 28 - The United States launched a military strike against Iran on June 27 local time.

WTI struggles to prolong its two-day uptrend below $78, as negative sentiment undermines expectations for China-led oil demand

Daniel Rogers

Mar 02, 2023 15:46

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Following a two-day uptrend that reached the greatest levels in a fortnight, the price of WTI crude oil fluctuates between $77.80 and $90 early Thursday.

 

The recent struggles of the black gold may be related to the contradictory signals encircling China and the Oil equities. However, negative sentiment and the resurgence of the US Dollar appear to be the quote's greatest obstacles to the upside.

 

In addition, higher-than-anticipated US inventories weigh on the energy benchmark. The weekly data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates a 1.165M increase in Oil inventories, compared to the expected 0.45M increase and the previous level of 7.648M.

 

The willingness of US President Joseph Biden to continue pumping the markets with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and the absence of offers for Russian Oil also exert downward pressure on the price of WTI crude oil.

 

The latest New York Times (NYT) headlines suggest a potential rift between the United States and China at the important event. According to the news, "China is urging the start of peace talks, and some Group of 20 nations may support that notion when they meet in India, but U.S. officials contend Russia would not negotiate in good faith."

 

It should be noted, however, that the recent uptick in China activity data and optimistic remarks from the dragon nation's policymakers keep black gold purchasers optimistic. China's Minister of Human Resources recently stated, "China's employment will continue to increase this year and remains stable overall." On Wednesday, China's Finance Minister Liu He expressed a willingness to increase the country's fiscal expenditure while noting that the foundation of China's economic recovery remains fragile.

 

However, hawkish remarks from policymakers of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BoE), and the European Central Bank (ECB) highlighted the need for additional rate hikes to combat inflation issues, which exerted downward pressure on the price of oil.

 

In response to these events, 10-year US Treasury bond yields surpassed 4% for the first time since early November 2022, while 2-year yields ascended to their highest levels since June 2007 by flashing 4.91%. The increase in US Treasury bond yields reflects the market's concerns, which in turn have impacted on bulls on Wall Street, S&P 500 Futures, and WTI bulls recently. Consequently, S&P 500 Futures were down 0.5 percent as of press time despite the varied closing of Wall Street benchmarks.

 

Moving on, G20 updates could be combined with comments from central bankers and secondary US data to amuse Oil traders.