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On May 27, according to the Wall Street Journal, U.S. Trade Representative Greer said on Tuesday that President Trumps 10% global tariffs could be reinstated after their July expiration, noting that the relevant regulations do not explicitly state whether the president can reinstate these tariffs after the legal deadline. Trump imposed the 10% global tariffs in February under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which are set to last a maximum of 150 days and were originally scheduled to expire in July and be replaced by new tariffs. Speaking at an event hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations, Greer said that the law may allow for the reinstatement of these tariffs, as the regulations only specify the expiration date and not when they can be reinstated. Greer did not say whether the Trump administration would seek to extend these tariffs, but stated that he "cannot imagine" Congress intending to limit the presidents power to use Section 122 tariffs to once per term.① Iran 1. Iran stated it would retaliate fiercely if war resumed and would block regional oil exports. 2. Irans Supreme Leader stated the US would no longer have a "safe haven" in the Middle East. 3. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard declared that Iran has the right to respond to any US violation of the ceasefire agreement. It locked onto and shot down a US MQ-9 drone. 4. The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that Iran would respond to the USs blatant violation of the ceasefire agreement. ② The US 1. Trump: Irans enriched uranium will be immediately transferred to the US for destruction; a better option is to destroy it on-site (or at another mutually acceptable location) with close cooperation and coordination with Iran, and the entire process and related matters must be witnessed by the Atomic Energy Commission (or its equivalent). 2. At a crucial moment in US-Iran negotiations, Trump spoke with Netanyahu. 3. US media reported that as peace talks with Iran approach a critical juncture, Trump will make a rare visit to Camp David on Wednesday to hold a cabinet meeting. 4. Trump: Given the potential for severe weather tomorrow, a cabinet meeting will be held at the White House, and the cabinet trip to Camp David will be postponed. ③ Israel 1. The Israeli military claims to have killed a key Hamas weapons production figure, Mohammed Abu Mahlou. 2. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu: Israel launched an attack in Gaza on the leader of a new Hamas armed branch. 3. The Israeli military issued an emergency mobilization order to expand its military operations outside the Yellow Line in Lebanon. 4. The Israeli military issued evacuation warnings to residents of two towns in the Bekaa region of Lebanon, anticipating possible airstrikes. 5. Israeli media reported on the 26th that the Israeli military crossed the ceasefire line into southern Lebanon to launch a ground offensive. 6. Israel strives to retain its freedom of action in Lebanon within the Iran agreement. 7. The Israeli military launched airstrikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon, killing several militants. ④ Strait of Hormuz 1. The Wall Street Journal reported that US military officials revealed that the US Navy has resumed assisting ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. 1. The report was later admitted to being incorrect: "Project Freedom" had not been restarted, and the US military was merely "quietly" assisting ships in transiting the Strait of Hormuz. 2. According to Irans Tasnim News Agency: The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy stated that 25 oil tankers, container ships, and other commercial vessels had transited the Strait of Hormuz with Iranian permission in the past 24 hours. 3. The UKs Office for Maritime Trade Operations: An oil tanker (near Oman) reported an external explosion, located on its port stern, near the waterline. ⑤ Ceasefire Negotiations 1. The US Central Command stated it conducted a self-defense strike in southern Iran; US officials: This does not mean the ceasefire has ended. 2. Qatari Foreign Ministry: Reports of Qatar contributing $12 billion to facilitate the agreement are completely false. 3. US Secretary of State Rubio: The Strait of Hormuz must remain open; negotiations on the wording of the Iran agreement may "take several days." 4. Iranian media denied claims that Iran and the US had reached a memorandum of understanding. 5. According to Irans Tasnim News Agency: Sources close to the negotiating team stated that if a potential memorandum of understanding is reached with the United States, the $24 billion in frozen Iranian funds must be unfrozen. 6. Sources stated that the unfreezing of Iranian funds is the last major obstacle between Iran and the United States, and is being resolved through mediation in Qatar. This has not yet been officially confirmed. 7. Middle Eastern officials: Despite the attack on Iran, the diplomatic process will continue. 8. Iranian President: Ready to reach a "dignified" framework agreement. 9. According to Lebanese television station Al-Mayadeen: An advisor to Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf stated that if the United States "plays word games," Tehran will withdraw from negotiations.U.S. Trade Representative Greer: There has been progress with the EU on reducing tariffs, but further efforts are needed on non-tariff barriers.The European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre reports a 4.8-magnitude earthquake in the Fiji region.On May 27, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated that there are currently no preconditions for strategic stability dialogue with the United States. Ryabkov said, "The current world situation does not meet the preconditions for dialogue on strategic stability and future arms control. Only if there is a significant improvement in US policy towards Russia, and if such an improvement actually occurs, can we conclude that we are willing to consider this possibility. But at present, there are no signs of any approaching improvement."

WTI struggles to prolong its two-day uptrend below $78, as negative sentiment undermines expectations for China-led oil demand

Daniel Rogers

Mar 02, 2023 15:46

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Following a two-day uptrend that reached the greatest levels in a fortnight, the price of WTI crude oil fluctuates between $77.80 and $90 early Thursday.

 

The recent struggles of the black gold may be related to the contradictory signals encircling China and the Oil equities. However, negative sentiment and the resurgence of the US Dollar appear to be the quote's greatest obstacles to the upside.

 

In addition, higher-than-anticipated US inventories weigh on the energy benchmark. The weekly data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates a 1.165M increase in Oil inventories, compared to the expected 0.45M increase and the previous level of 7.648M.

 

The willingness of US President Joseph Biden to continue pumping the markets with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and the absence of offers for Russian Oil also exert downward pressure on the price of WTI crude oil.

 

The latest New York Times (NYT) headlines suggest a potential rift between the United States and China at the important event. According to the news, "China is urging the start of peace talks, and some Group of 20 nations may support that notion when they meet in India, but U.S. officials contend Russia would not negotiate in good faith."

 

It should be noted, however, that the recent uptick in China activity data and optimistic remarks from the dragon nation's policymakers keep black gold purchasers optimistic. China's Minister of Human Resources recently stated, "China's employment will continue to increase this year and remains stable overall." On Wednesday, China's Finance Minister Liu He expressed a willingness to increase the country's fiscal expenditure while noting that the foundation of China's economic recovery remains fragile.

 

However, hawkish remarks from policymakers of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BoE), and the European Central Bank (ECB) highlighted the need for additional rate hikes to combat inflation issues, which exerted downward pressure on the price of oil.

 

In response to these events, 10-year US Treasury bond yields surpassed 4% for the first time since early November 2022, while 2-year yields ascended to their highest levels since June 2007 by flashing 4.91%. The increase in US Treasury bond yields reflects the market's concerns, which in turn have impacted on bulls on Wall Street, S&P 500 Futures, and WTI bulls recently. Consequently, S&P 500 Futures were down 0.5 percent as of press time despite the varied closing of Wall Street benchmarks.

 

Moving on, G20 updates could be combined with comments from central bankers and secondary US data to amuse Oil traders.