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On August 29th, StoneX market analyst Fawad Razaqzada stated that Warshs speech on Friday night was considered quite hawkish. Regarding forward guidance, Warsh said what the market expected him to say: he doesnt believe in forward guidance and therefore refused to pre-commit to a September rate hike. However, this didnt stop the market from speculating that a rate hike might indeed be back on the table. Regarding inflation, Warsh stated that combating inflation remains a clear priority and elaborated on this in detail, but he also added that he was confident core inflation was moving towards the Feds target. Overall, his speech was more hawkish than the market expected. During Warshs Jackson Hole speech, the market significantly repriced the September Fed decision, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike jumping from 30% to approximately 50%. Before the September Fed meeting, there will be a non-farm payroll report and a CPI inflation report, along with some other minor data releases. Under the new chairman, the Fed has become more data-dependent. Given that recent US employment reports have consistently missed expectations and by a large margin, any further weakening could severely undermine market expectations for a September rate hike.On August 29th, according to multiple foreign media reports, on August 28th local time, Chinese chipmaker Changxin Memory Technologies Co., Ltd. (CXMT) filed a lawsuit with the U.S. Department of Defense, demanding its removal from a blacklist. According to Bloomberg, CXMT stated that its chips are designed for civilian and commercial use, not military purposes, and claimed it was wrongly blacklisted. The lawsuit has been filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, with U.S. Defense Secretary Peter Hegses listed as a defendant. In a statement released after filing the lawsuit, CXMT stated that the company is not a military enterprise and that its reputation and business interests have continued to suffer since it was first blacklisted in January 2025. The company added that this action was taken to protect its business interests. According to Reuters, the U.S. Department of Defense stated in a statement that, according to policy, the Department of Defense does not comment on pending or ongoing litigation.August 29th - The 2026 China International Big Data Industry Expo (Big Data Expo) is currently being held in Guiyang, Guizhou. Today, a representative from the National Data Administration stated at the "Data and Computing Integration Driving the Future" exchange event that the computing power network, water network, new power grid, next-generation communication network, urban underground pipe network, and logistics network form a deeply coupled, mutually empowering, and collaboratively supporting organic whole. It was explained that the computing power network, acting as the "brain," assists in the intelligent scheduling of new power grids and the consumption of new energy; collaborates with the next-generation communication network to promote data flow, model training, and application innovation; empowers water networks to achieve accurate forecasting of watershed water conditions and dynamic allocation of water resources; supports urban underground pipe networks to drive real-time monitoring, risk warning, and emergency response for lifeline projects such as gas, drainage, and heating; and connects with the logistics network to promote cost reduction and efficiency improvement across the entire supply chain. The latest data released at the conference shows that as of the end of July, the total scale of intelligent computing nationwide reached 2.45 million PFLOPS (FP16), and the eight national computing power hubs and three computing-electricity collaborative development zones have built intelligent computing scales, accounting for over 85% of the national total.August 29th – The 2026 China International Big Data Industry Expo is being held in Guiyang, Guizhou. Today, an official from the National Data Administration stated at the expo that the rapid application of big data models across various industries is driving a rapid increase in the volume of word token calls in my country, resulting in explosive market demand. Liu Liehong, Director of the National Data Administration, stated at a word token-themed exchange activity that the stronger the models comprehensive capabilities, the higher the efficiency of word token production, and the better the logic, accuracy, and quality of the output content. Word tokens provide an important benchmark for the measurement, pricing, transaction, and settlement of artificial intelligence services. Currently, the word token industry chain has gathered diverse entities such as computing power leasing companies, model manufacturers, data service providers, and professional technical service institutions, and different types of "word token factories" have evolved in practice.The Iranian government stated that it is committed to resolutely resisting US sanctions, and that diplomacy and defense are "complementary and inseparable."

WTI struggles to prolong its two-day uptrend below $78, as negative sentiment undermines expectations for China-led oil demand

Daniel Rogers

Mar 02, 2023 15:46

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Following a two-day uptrend that reached the greatest levels in a fortnight, the price of WTI crude oil fluctuates between $77.80 and $90 early Thursday.

 

The recent struggles of the black gold may be related to the contradictory signals encircling China and the Oil equities. However, negative sentiment and the resurgence of the US Dollar appear to be the quote's greatest obstacles to the upside.

 

In addition, higher-than-anticipated US inventories weigh on the energy benchmark. The weekly data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates a 1.165M increase in Oil inventories, compared to the expected 0.45M increase and the previous level of 7.648M.

 

The willingness of US President Joseph Biden to continue pumping the markets with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and the absence of offers for Russian Oil also exert downward pressure on the price of WTI crude oil.

 

The latest New York Times (NYT) headlines suggest a potential rift between the United States and China at the important event. According to the news, "China is urging the start of peace talks, and some Group of 20 nations may support that notion when they meet in India, but U.S. officials contend Russia would not negotiate in good faith."

 

It should be noted, however, that the recent uptick in China activity data and optimistic remarks from the dragon nation's policymakers keep black gold purchasers optimistic. China's Minister of Human Resources recently stated, "China's employment will continue to increase this year and remains stable overall." On Wednesday, China's Finance Minister Liu He expressed a willingness to increase the country's fiscal expenditure while noting that the foundation of China's economic recovery remains fragile.

 

However, hawkish remarks from policymakers of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BoE), and the European Central Bank (ECB) highlighted the need for additional rate hikes to combat inflation issues, which exerted downward pressure on the price of oil.

 

In response to these events, 10-year US Treasury bond yields surpassed 4% for the first time since early November 2022, while 2-year yields ascended to their highest levels since June 2007 by flashing 4.91%. The increase in US Treasury bond yields reflects the market's concerns, which in turn have impacted on bulls on Wall Street, S&P 500 Futures, and WTI bulls recently. Consequently, S&P 500 Futures were down 0.5 percent as of press time despite the varied closing of Wall Street benchmarks.

 

Moving on, G20 updates could be combined with comments from central bankers and secondary US data to amuse Oil traders.