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On August 17, the foreign ministers of eight countries—Egypt, Qatar, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia—issued a joint statement on August 16, strongly condemning Israels recent rejection of the Gaza peace plan. The statement said the plan, accepted by all Palestinian factions, is a significant achievement resulting from extensive efforts by mediators. Israels public refusal to implement the Gaza peace plan is a direct denial of it and fundamentally undermines collective efforts towards a just and lasting peace. The statement also pointed out that Israel bears direct and full responsibility for all the consequences, including the deterioration of the situation and the obstruction of the Gaza peace process. The eight foreign ministers stated in the statement that the United States should continue to actively participate in the implementation of the Gaza peace plan to ensure Israels full compliance with the plan and fulfillment of its commitments, and to prevent further obstruction of its implementation.On August 17th, sources close to the deal revealed that Zhou Bingshu, CEO of Lingxi Interactive Entertainment, confirmed in an internal letter that Alibaba Group and CITIC Capitals Xinchen Capital have officially reached a transaction agreement. According to the agreement, Alibaba will transfer its shares in Lingxi Interactive Entertainment, and Xinchen Capital will become the new shareholder. Previously, reports indicated that CITIC Capitals Xinchen Capital would acquire Alibabas Lingxi Interactive Entertainment for over US$1.5 billion (over RMB 10.1 billion).Piper Jaffray: Raises its price target for PayPal (PYPL.O) from $42 to $59.The Hang Seng Tech Index rose 2%, with tech and chip stocks leading the gains. SenseTime (00020.HK) jumped over 8%, and Hua Hong Grace (01347.HK) rose 6.76%.Futures News, August 17th: The progress of diplomatic contacts between the US and Iran has slowed, and the geopolitical dynamics are exhibiting multiple characteristics. Changes in expectations regarding the Strait of Hormuzs reopening: Initial estimates of US-Iran negotiations and the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz pushed down crude oil prices. However, with Iran demanding the lifting of sanctions and compensation, and the US also making corresponding claims, the pace of negotiations slowed, and previous expectations for a rapid resumption of navigation were revised. Traders are now incorporating the uncertainty of the shipping route into asset pricing. Supply recovery progress assessment: The ongoing geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to affect the recovery of regional oil production and logistics. Assessment data indicates that although OPECs total production in July is estimated at approximately 19.4 million barrels per day, this is still below the pre-war level of 27 million barrels per day. According to EIA estimates, approximately 5.5 million barrels per day of production capacity in the Middle East remained shut down in July. If shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to be disrupted in August, the scale of production shutdowns is estimated to expand to 6.6 million barrels per day. From the perspective of market capital and position changes, with the increasing uncertainty of diplomatic negotiations, short positions previously established based on the expectation of a rapid resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz have been adjusted, and geopolitical risk factors are once again reflected in market pricing. Against the backdrop of low traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz, short-term prices have broken away from the previous downward trend, and the markets sensitivity to geopolitical news has significantly increased. Overall, the fluctuating progress of US-Iran negotiations and expectations of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz have prompted the market to reassess the risk premium on the supply side of crude oil. The core focus of the market going forward will remain on: the actual navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz, the subsequent progress of US-Iran diplomatic negotiations, and the evolution of the regional geopolitical situation. The subsequent development of these fundamental and logistical variables will continue to serve as the main basis for the markets assessment of the supply structure.

WTI struggles to prolong its two-day uptrend below $78, as negative sentiment undermines expectations for China-led oil demand

Daniel Rogers

Mar 02, 2023 15:46

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Following a two-day uptrend that reached the greatest levels in a fortnight, the price of WTI crude oil fluctuates between $77.80 and $90 early Thursday.

 

The recent struggles of the black gold may be related to the contradictory signals encircling China and the Oil equities. However, negative sentiment and the resurgence of the US Dollar appear to be the quote's greatest obstacles to the upside.

 

In addition, higher-than-anticipated US inventories weigh on the energy benchmark. The weekly data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates a 1.165M increase in Oil inventories, compared to the expected 0.45M increase and the previous level of 7.648M.

 

The willingness of US President Joseph Biden to continue pumping the markets with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and the absence of offers for Russian Oil also exert downward pressure on the price of WTI crude oil.

 

The latest New York Times (NYT) headlines suggest a potential rift between the United States and China at the important event. According to the news, "China is urging the start of peace talks, and some Group of 20 nations may support that notion when they meet in India, but U.S. officials contend Russia would not negotiate in good faith."

 

It should be noted, however, that the recent uptick in China activity data and optimistic remarks from the dragon nation's policymakers keep black gold purchasers optimistic. China's Minister of Human Resources recently stated, "China's employment will continue to increase this year and remains stable overall." On Wednesday, China's Finance Minister Liu He expressed a willingness to increase the country's fiscal expenditure while noting that the foundation of China's economic recovery remains fragile.

 

However, hawkish remarks from policymakers of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BoE), and the European Central Bank (ECB) highlighted the need for additional rate hikes to combat inflation issues, which exerted downward pressure on the price of oil.

 

In response to these events, 10-year US Treasury bond yields surpassed 4% for the first time since early November 2022, while 2-year yields ascended to their highest levels since June 2007 by flashing 4.91%. The increase in US Treasury bond yields reflects the market's concerns, which in turn have impacted on bulls on Wall Street, S&P 500 Futures, and WTI bulls recently. Consequently, S&P 500 Futures were down 0.5 percent as of press time despite the varied closing of Wall Street benchmarks.

 

Moving on, G20 updates could be combined with comments from central bankers and secondary US data to amuse Oil traders.