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On May 9, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that once a specific trade plan is on the table, she could envision visiting Washington to meet with Trump to discuss trade negotiations. "If I go to the White House, I hope there is a package that we can discuss," von der Leyen said. "It has to be specific, and I hope there is a solution that we can both agree on. Thats what were working on now." Last month, von der Leyen met briefly with Trump at Pope Francis funeral, but a formal meeting has not yet taken place. On Thursday, the European Commission announced that if trade negotiations with the United States fail to produce satisfactory results, the EU will impose additional tariffs on 95 billion euros of US exports. Von der Leyen said on Friday that the EU prefers to resolve the issue through negotiations to avoid tariff escalation, but is developing countermeasures that can be implemented if a "satisfactory result" cannot be reached.On May 9, ECB board member Simkus said that since the eurozone economy has not yet felt the full impact of US tariffs, inflation is expected to continue to slow, but the ECB must further lower interest rates. He said that although economic activity performed well at the beginning, recent geopolitical trends, including US President Trumps trade threats, are bad news. At the same time, he saw "clear anti-inflationary forces" at work. He said, "For me, the June decision was very clear that another rate cut was needed." He said, "It is possible to cut interest rates again after June," although the timing is unclear. The ECB has cut interest rates seven times since June last year, and officials have said they are ready to take more measures as US tariffs threaten economic growth.Federal Reserve Board Governor Kugler: It is not appropriate to use a single indicator to guide the maximum employment target.Federal Reserve Board Governor Barr: Forward-looking measures are worrying.Federal Reserve Board Governor Barr: The first quarter GDP data was somewhat abnormal.

WTI corrects below $77.00 as buyers grow nervous ahead of the Caixin Manufacturing PMI

Daniel Rogers

Mar 01, 2023 11:42

After encountering stiffer resistance above $77.50 in the late New York session, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange have sharply reversed. As investors wait for the Caixin Manufacturing PMI data to be released, the oil price has fallen to $76.60 and is expected to remain on edge.

 

There is no disputing that international organizations and investment banking firms are optimistic about a strong economic rebound in China following the administration's dismantling of pandemic controls following a three-year lockdown. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) has pledged a complete recovery in domestic demand through expansionary monetary policy, so China's post-pandemic period is anticipated to be robust.

 

Investors are anxiously awaiting February's figures after being taken aback by January's disappointingly low Caixin Manufacturing PMI data. A prolonged period of negativity would be detrimental to the market's oil prices. In general, investors continue to be risk cautious as they anticipate a bleak future due to aggressive Western central banks. And the current low Manufacturing PMI for China will make investors' risk aversion even worse.

 

The majority predicts that IHS Markit will issue the Caixin Manufacturing PMI at 50.2, up from the previous release of 49.2.

 

In addition to the Caixin Manufacturing PMI, the United States Energy Information Administration's (EIA) oil inventory data for the week concluding February 24 will be closely monitored.

 

Despite being smaller than the previous release of nearly 10 million barrels, US American Petroleum on Tuesday reported a massive stockpile of oil stockpiles of 6.20 million barrels. For the past three months, oil inventories have been steadily growing, pointing to a sharp drop in global consumption.


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