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July 15th Futures News: 1. International oil prices have risen by more than 11% in just two trading days this week, the largest two-day percentage increase since mid-March. As of July 14th, WTI crude oil futures for the first month rose by $7.93 per barrel, an increase of 11.10%; Brent crude oil futures for the first month rose by $8.72 per barrel, an increase of 11.47%. Shipping activity in the Gulf region has slowed significantly as risks continue to escalate. Shipping data shows that from July 11th to 13th, confirmed passage of ships carrying commodities fell to 11 per day, compared to 30 per day from July 1st to 10th. 2. Deutsche Bank believes that the sharp rise in oil prices is due to escalating tensions between the US and Iran, coupled with Trumps renewed hardline rhetoric on the Strait of Hormuz. The daily increase in Brent crude oil on the 13th was the largest since 2020, reigniting concerns about stagflation and pushing up interest rate expectations and global bond yields. At the same time, rising energy costs and geopolitical risks have also contributed to this situation.On July 15th, Wang Guanhua, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics and Deputy Director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that in the first half of the year, enterprises placed greater emphasis on research and development innovation, continuously increasing investment in areas such as patents, software, and databases. In terms of proportion, investment in intellectual property products accounted for 13.8% of fixed asset investment, an increase of 1.4 percentage points compared to the first quarter. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in the first half of the year, investment in intellectual property products increased by 9.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.5 percentage points compared to the first quarter.On July 15th, the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office held a regular press conference. Taiwanese media reported that the Taiwanese military held its first "joint defense exercise" this week, simulating "threat scenarios such as detecting enemy ships setting sail and entering territorial waters," in order to respond to potential threats. What is your comment on this? Zhu Fenglian, spokesperson for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, stated that the DPP authorities attempt to seek "independence" through force, escalating cross-strait confrontation, is the main culprit for the tense and unstable situation in the Taiwan Strait. Faced with the powerful Peoples Liberation Army, no matter how many exercises the DPP authorities conduct, it is all posturing and futile. It cannot change the inevitable defeat of "Taiwan independence," nor can it stop the historical trend of the inevitable reunification of the motherland.The main contract for low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose 6.00% intraday, currently trading at 4574.00 yuan/ton.Futures Commentary by Everbright Futures: US inflation data fell short of expectations, easing concerns about interest rate hikes. Overnight, London spot gold prices fluctuated and strengthened, with COMEX July gold futures closing up 1.6% and SHFE gold up 0.89%. 1. US June CPI rose 3.5% year-on-year, a significant slowdown from Mays 4.2% increase; June core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year, lower than the market expectation of 2.8% and the previous value of 2.9%. This further delayed market expectations for a Fed rate hike, weakening the dollar and pushing gold prices higher. However, the US-Iran conflict shows no signs of easing, the risk of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz remains, and oil prices and inflation stickiness may lead to fluctuations in July data. Last night, Warsh made his congressional debut, stating that even with Trumps criticism, he would act according to the data, and the June CPI slowdown does not mean the inflation "mission is accomplished." 2. Overall, gold prices have been mainly weak and corrective, influenced by geopolitical disturbances, recurring inflation, and Warshs hawkish stance. This indicates that the current bottoming-out range for gold is not stable. With geopolitical factors and Fed policies intertwined, there is significant divergence between bulls and bears, and caution is still advised.

WTI corrects below $77.00 as buyers grow nervous ahead of the Caixin Manufacturing PMI

Daniel Rogers

Mar 01, 2023 11:42

After encountering stiffer resistance above $77.50 in the late New York session, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange have sharply reversed. As investors wait for the Caixin Manufacturing PMI data to be released, the oil price has fallen to $76.60 and is expected to remain on edge.

 

There is no disputing that international organizations and investment banking firms are optimistic about a strong economic rebound in China following the administration's dismantling of pandemic controls following a three-year lockdown. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) has pledged a complete recovery in domestic demand through expansionary monetary policy, so China's post-pandemic period is anticipated to be robust.

 

Investors are anxiously awaiting February's figures after being taken aback by January's disappointingly low Caixin Manufacturing PMI data. A prolonged period of negativity would be detrimental to the market's oil prices. In general, investors continue to be risk cautious as they anticipate a bleak future due to aggressive Western central banks. And the current low Manufacturing PMI for China will make investors' risk aversion even worse.

 

The majority predicts that IHS Markit will issue the Caixin Manufacturing PMI at 50.2, up from the previous release of 49.2.

 

In addition to the Caixin Manufacturing PMI, the United States Energy Information Administration's (EIA) oil inventory data for the week concluding February 24 will be closely monitored.

 

Despite being smaller than the previous release of nearly 10 million barrels, US American Petroleum on Tuesday reported a massive stockpile of oil stockpiles of 6.20 million barrels. For the past three months, oil inventories have been steadily growing, pointing to a sharp drop in global consumption.


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