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On April 8, a 256GB version of iPhone 16 Pro was officially priced at $1,100. According to data calculated by the US media, it costs Apple about $580 to make a mobile phone. But after the United States announced a 34% so-called "reciprocal tariff" on China, plus the existing 20% tariff, the increased tax will reach $296.86. The cost of a mobile phone rose to $876.79, an increase of more than 50%. According to Morgan Stanleys forecast, the cost of this round of tariffs may cause Apple losses of up to $33 billion per year.On April 8, the State Administration for Market Regulation reported the results of the national supervision and random inspection of 27 types of product quality. A total of 8,218 batches of products from 7,841 production units and 2,937 sales units were inspected, and 740 batches of unqualified products were found. Follow-up inspections found 287 production units that failed the last inspection, of which 46 production units still had unqualified products. Products with a high rate of unqualified inspections mainly include: synthetic resin emulsion interior wall paint, automatic rice cookers, electric hand warmers, etc. In response to the problems found in this national supervision and random inspection of product quality, the State Administration for Market Regulation requires all relevant provincial market supervision departments to quickly handle the follow-up work.Deutsche Bank: The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its May meeting, compared with the previous expectation of a 25 basis point cut.Hong Kong stocks strengthened, with the Hang Seng Index up 2% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up more than 4%.Futures News on April 8, London spot gold price fluctuated and fell back overnight, closing below $3,000. The Federal Reserve held a closed-door meeting last night, mainly to review and confirm the advance and discount rates charged by the Federal Reserve Bank. This meeting was held at a time when Trumps tariff policy triggered a major adjustment in the capital market. The swap market even showed a 40% probability of an emergency rate cut next week. The sharp adjustment of gold prices overnight was mainly due to the implementation of previous uncertainties. At the same time, due to the exemption of precious metals from the reciprocal tariff policy, the logic of the previous spot trade tension pushing up gold prices failed. In the short term, under the reciprocal tariff that far exceeded market expectations, investors concerns about the potential "stagflation" in the future of the United States have deepened. In the future, "stagflation" may be the baseline scenario for the US economy, and under the "stagflation" scenario, gold prices are expected to continue to be strong. In addition, due to the implementation of previous uncertainties and the closing of profit-making funds, the pressure on gold prices to pull back from high levels has increased, and volatility may increase. In the medium and long term, the central banks gold purchases are sustainable, coupled with the global currency flooding and de-dollarization trend, which will continue to support the upward trend of the gold price center, and gold may remain strong in the future. Pay attention to the US March inflation data this week and the reactions of various countries to the US reciprocal tariff policy.

USD/JPY falls to 146.00 as the DXY weakens and interest in BOJ policy rises

Alina Haynes

Oct 27, 2022 15:28

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During the Asian session, in response to negative signals from the US dollar index, the USD/JPY pair plunged below 146.00. (DXY). Following Wednesday's low of 146.22, the asset's two-day downward trend has extended. The main index is reaching the bottom of Monday's knee-jerk reaction near 145.77 as it continues to decline.

 

The dollar bears are facing a severe sell-off due to the positive market sentiment. The risk-sensitive currencies have benefited from an increase in risk appetite. The US dollar index (DXY) has struck a new monthly low of 109.56 and is anticipated to stay volatile until the release of crucial US economic data.

 

The increased demand for U.S. government bonds has resulted in a decline in yields. This is due to the global markets' increased confidence. The yield on 10-year United States Treasury notes has decreased to 4%.

 

According to estimates, the Gross Domestic Product of the United States expanded by 2.4% in the third quarter. Despite the ultra-hawkish monetary policies of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the previously disclosed 0.6% fall in growth, forecasts indicate a positive growth rate.

 

In addition, US Durable Goods Orders data will continue to be a key point. Compared to a reduction of 0.2%, it is projected that economic statistics will increase by 0.6%. Notable is the increase in core inflation, which includes oil and food prices. In spite of this, the predicted increase in demand for durable goods in the United States demonstrates healthy household demand.

 

Investors in Tokyo are anticipating the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) interest rate decision on Friday. In view of the shocks to foreign demand, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will continue an ultra-loose monetary policy to stimulate the outlook for economic development. In addition, Japanese policymakers are anxious that the inflation rate could go below 2%; hence, an extremely liberal policy is the best alternative.

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