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On April 3, the Reserve Bank of Australias latest report for the banking industry warned that continued uncertainty in US trade policy "could have a chilling effect on business investment and household spending decisions, and pose a significant headwind to the outlook for global economic activity and inflation." The Reserve Bank of Australia said there was also considerable uncertainty about the impact of possible changes in fiscal, regulatory and other government policies on global growth and inflation.The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong opened on April 3 (Thursday) down 564.32 points, or 2.43%, to 22,638.21 points; the Hang Seng Technology Index opened on April 3 (Thursday) down 168.53 points, or 3.11%, to 5,257.91 points; the CSI 300 Index opened on April 3 (Thursday) down 219.05 points, or 2.57%, to 8,312.46 points; the H-share Index opened on April 3 (Thursday) down 61.24 points, or 1.59%, to 3,800.76 points.USD/CNY reported 7.1889, up 96 points (RMB depreciation); EUR/CNY reported 7.8414, up 588 points; HKD/CNY reported 0.92353, up 8.6 points; GBP/CNY reported 9.3903, up 740 points; AUD/CNY reported 4.5185, down 188 points; CAD/CNY reported 5.0650, up 142 points; JPY/CNY reported 4.8767, up 543 points; RMB/RUB reported 11.6222, down 103 points; NZD/CNY reported 4.1367, up 77 points; RMB/RMB reported 0.61947, up 27.1 points; CHF/CNY reported 8.1915, up 424 points; SGD/CNY reported 5.3478, down 143 points.Hang Seng Index futures opened down 2.64% at 22,600 points, 624 points below the water level.On April 3, James Surowiecki, a famous financial journalist, wrote that he had just figured out where these false tariff rates in the United States came from. They dont actually calculate tariff rates + non-tariff barriers as they say. Instead, for each country, they just divide the US trade deficit with that country by the countrys exports to the United States. So the United States has a $17.9 billion trade deficit with Indonesia, and its exports to the United States are $28 billion, $17.9/$28 = 64% (the United States imposes a 32% reciprocal tariff on Indonesia), and Trump claims that this is the tariff rate imposed by Indonesia on the United States. What a ridiculous thing. Netizens found that similar calculations apply to the European Union and Vietnam.

US Dollar Index reaffirms 20-year high on Ukraine-related news

Alina Haynes

Sep 26, 2022 14:32

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While risk aversion rises on Monday morning, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is still bullish over 113.80. It recently reclaimed the 20-year high above 114.70. In addition to bad attitude, Fed members' hawkish views also assist the US currency.

 

The head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, said, "We are committed to deploying our tools," on Friday. Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard then added that low-income people are feeling the effects of "hard" inflation. Despite the economy's continuing speed, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic told CBS' "Face the Nation" over the weekend that he still believes the central bank can cut inflation without substantial job losses.

 

Recent US S&P Global PMIs for August, issued on Friday, showed an increase in the Manufacturing index to 51.8 from 51.5, and an increase in the Services index to 49.0 from 44.6.

 

The president of Ukraine, Zelenskiy, was recently mentioned on a different page of a CBS article as saying, "Putin's nuclear threats may have been a bluff, but now it may be a reality." While Russia's foreign minister said annexing territory hosting widely criticized referendums would be met with complete protection from Moscow, the United States warned of "catastrophic ramifications" if Moscow utilized nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

 

Despite the Fed's hawkish attitude and rate increase, risk aversion gripped Wall Street, and rates helped the US currency stay higher. Although this occurs, S&P 500 Futures only fall by a few points as 10-year US Treasury yields climb by four basis points to 3.74 percent.

 

The US dollar index's future strength against major currencies may be aided by investors' reluctance to take on additional risk. Still, comments from Fed Chair Powell and US Durable Goods Orders are major triggers to keep an eye on for clues about the market's future course.

 

A daily close above 114.00, which coincides with a higher-trending resistance line from May, is needed for the DXY bulls to keep control. Dollar investors, however, should be wary of the indicator's current overbought reading of 14.


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