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Germanys final April CPI annual rate was 2.9%, in line with expectations and down from 2.90% previously.Germanys final April CPI month-on-month rate was 0.6%, in line with expectations and down from 0.60% previously.Germanys final harmonized CPI annual rate for April was 2.9%, below the expected 2.90% and the previous reading of 2.90%.Germanys final harmonized CPI monthly rate for April was 0.5%, below the expected 0.50% and the previous reading of 0.50%.On May 12th, UBS issued a report stating that Pop Mart (09992.HK) will hold its Q1 2026 earnings call on May 13th. UBS expects Pop Marts Q1 revenue to grow by 60% to 65% year-on-year, estimated at approximately RMB 9 billion, higher than the market consensus of RMB 6 billion to RMB 10 billion. The bank anticipates that its China business will remain resilient, growing 10% quarter-on-quarter and 80% to 85% year-on-year, driven by the popularity of the Twinkle Twinkle series and seasonal factors such as the Lunar New Year and winter holidays. Conversely, overseas business is expected to decline by 40% to 50% quarter-on-quarter and grow by 30% to 35% year-on-year, mainly due to the cooling of the initial Labubu craze and the normalization of social media hype cycles in Western markets during the off-season. The bank noted that it does not rule out the possibility of further lowering its earnings forecast for Pop Mart if the "hype downturn" continues, but the current valuation already partially reflects these risks. The target price was lowered from HK$278 to HK$237.5 due to a 7% to 9% reduction in adjusted net profit forecasts for 2026 to 2028 to reflect lower revenue forecasts from overseas markets, and a reduction in the medium-term revenue growth assumption from 9.5% to 8.9%, mainly due to a lower assumption on overseas expansion. The rating remains "Buy".

The USD/CHF exchange rate fluctuates at 0.94 prior to US five-year inflation projections

Alina Haynes

Dec 08, 2022 15:27

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During the Tokyo session, the USD/CHF pair is oscillating near the round-level barrier of 0.9400 as investors await the release of the United States' five-year consumer inflation forecasts for more direction. The Swiss franc is attempting to surpass the immediate resistance level of 0.9410, but the risk-on mentality stops the US Dollar from advancing further.

 

In the framework of the risk appetite theme, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is hitting resistance close to the significant level of 105.20. In the meantime, 10-year US Treasury yields have attempted to recover after falling to approximately 3.40 percent on Wednesday. The yield on long-term US Treasury bonds has rebounded to approximately 3.45%.

 

The growing unpredictability around the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy outlook has caused market participants to feel anxious. As a result of favorable U.S. economic data, investors anticipate future rate hikes from the Federal Reserve to combat rising inflationary pressures. Moreover, it will compel a recession, as businesses will lower or maintain their current level of economic activity in response to rising interest liabilities.

 

At a Goldman Sachs financial conference, Bank of America (BoA) CEO Brian Moynihan informed investors that the United States economy will see "moderate contraction" in the first quarter of 2023.

 

Friday's release of US Consumer Inflation Expectations for the Next Five Years will continue to be closely monitored by investors.

 

Regarding the Swiss franc, investors are shifting their focus to the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) interest rate announcement scheduled for next week. As inflationary pressures are moderately over the target rate, it is predicted that SNB Chairman Thomas J. Jordan would continue to loosen monetary policy. This week, the Swiss Unemployment Rate fell to 2.1%, which is lower than the previous data of 2.0% and the consensus estimate of 2.2%.

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