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Real-time News
August 25th - While Nvidias upcoming earnings report and Federal Reserve Chairman Warshs speech at the Jackson Hole symposium are the main events investors are watching this week, traders in the equity derivatives market have already begun preparing for a potential increase in volatility around the time of the US midterm elections in November. Volatility traders closely monitoring the futures market linked to the VIX volatility index have noted signs of increased demand for hedging S&P 500 volatility before and after the election. The September-expiring VIX futures contract is currently trading around 17.4, but the October contract has risen to 19, and the November contract has further increased to 19.7. Matthew Thompson, co-portfolio manager at Little Harbor Advisors, stated, "With the US election approaching, youre entering a window where the election will impact the VIX. You can already see this spiking in the term structure of the VIX futures." A study by analysts at the Chicago Board Options Exchange Global Markets shows that since 1945, 80% of midterm election years have seen actual volatility higher than the previous year, with an average increase of 3.5 volatility points. In years when both the White House and Congress are controlled by the same party, actual volatility increases by an average of 6 volatility points.August 25th - According to the Financial Times, citing sources familiar with the matter, Trump administration officials last week requested Kyiv not to use long-range missiles and drones to attack Moscow, St. Petersburg, and northern Russia during Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, while a U.S. plane carrying senior officials was en route to the Russian capital. The sources said Ukraine agreed to this request. Today, a U.S. Air Force C-17 transport plane landed in Moscow. Russia previously stated it was unaware of the specific circumstances of the planes arrival; the Kremlin also stated that no meetings with U.S. government representatives were scheduled for this week.U.S. new home sales fell to their lowest level in six months in July, indicating that even with builders lowering prices and offering incentives, high mortgage rates are still suppressing homebuying demand. According to data released by the government on Tuesday, pending sales of new single-family homes in the U.S. fell 10.5% in July to an annualized rate of 607,000 units. Economists median forecast was 620,000 units. The median price of new homes fell 0.9% year-over-year to $393,800. New home sales have declined in three of the past four months, further indicating that the housing market is under pressure from both high financing costs and high home prices. While builders have achieved some success in boosting demand through free upgrades, subsidized mortgage rates, and price reductions, the entry-level housing market remains constrained by insufficient affordability.On August 25th, US President Trump posted: "I have just been informed by the US Navy that all mines in international waters of the Strait of Hormuz have been cleared and/or detonated. The United States has notified Iran that any ships or vessels laying new mines will be systematically destroyed immediately. We monitor every inch of the Strait through the US Space Force, as well as Pickaxe Mountain and three other destroyed nuclear facilities. We have a zero-tolerance policy for mine-laying, and that policy is in full effect."US President Trump: Through the Space Force, we are monitoring every inch of the Strait of Hormuz, just as we monitor the strait as we monitor the strait itself and the three other nuclear facilities that have already been destroyed. We will have a zero-tolerance policy towards mine-laying activities.
