EUR/USD
1.15233
-0.010%
Gold
4410.84
0.055%
Oil
81.147
-0.631%
USD/JPY
159.395
-0.013%
GBP/USD
1.34902
-0.030%
GBP/JPY
215.030
-0.036%
Real-time News
On August 13th, Capital Economics economist Marcel Thieliant stated that while South Koreas GDP growth faces upside risks in the short term, the semiconductor-driven economic boom in South Korea may lose momentum within the next two years. The economist predicts that the US AI investment boom will cool down by 2028, potentially prompting South Korean chipmakers to begin cutting capital expenditures, given the highly cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry. Thieliant noted that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix announced an 800 trillion won investment plan to build a new chip manufacturing plant in southwestern South Korea, but a specific investment timeline has not yet been announced. He pointed out that in 2023, as the post-pandemic electronics boom reversed, SK Hynix cut its capital expenditures by two-thirds.August 13th - According to foreign media citing sources familiar with the matter, Anthropic is in talks to acquire artificial intelligence startup Decart AI for approximately $6 billion. Sources indicate that the deal is not yet finalized and negotiations could fall through. If finalized, this would be Anthropics largest known acquisition, coming at a time when the market is highly anticipating the companys IPO. Decarts software helps chips run more efficiently, reducing the cost of training AI models. According to one source, this technology could help Anthropics existing infrastructure handle greater demand. Anthropic rarely makes large-scale acquisitions but has been investing heavily in computing power to develop new products and serve its customers.Futures Commentary by Everbright Futures: On August 12th, COMEX gold continued its rebound, approaching the 4500 level intraday, closing at $4469.0 per ounce, a gain of 0.63%. Domestic SHFE gold opened higher but closed lower in the night session, ending with a slight gain of 958.92 yuan per gram, a gain of 0.36%. 1. According to data released by the US Department of Labor on Wednesday evening, the US July CPI data showed a moderate cooling, rising 3.4% year-on-year, a slight decrease from the previous value of 3.5%, the lowest level since March; the core CPI year-on-year growth rate narrowed from 2.6% to 2.5%, both indicators were in line with market expectations. This alleviated market concerns about an unexpected rebound in inflation in the short term, but the July CPI and core CPI are still significantly higher than the 2% target, therefore, it cannot completely dispel market concerns about a Fed rate hike in September. Currently, the probability of a Fed rate hike in September remains around 45%. 1. With increasing divisions among Federal Reserve officials, the market is focused on Warshs remarks. His speech at the global central bank conference at the end of August will be exceptionally important and may provide some guidance for the September interest rate decision. 2. Geopolitically, according to Reuters, Iran and the United States remain deeply divided on pushing for a permanent end to the Gulf War. Sources indicate that negotiations between the two sides to restore the interim agreement reached in June and establish a timetable for its implementation have made no progress. US President Trump stated on Wednesday that the US has "complete control" over the Strait of Hormuz. However, the Persian Gulf Straits Authority, established by Iran to manage the waterway, stated that the strait remains closed and will not reopen until Irans conditions are accepted. In the short term, gold prices are gradually becoming less sensitive to geopolitical transactions, but the possibility of rising oil prices driving up inflation expectations remains. Attention should be paid to whether geopolitical tensions escalate further. 3. In the short term, the markets cooling expectations for a Fed rate hike may continue to drive gold prices higher. However, from the end of August to mid-September, the market will repeatedly price in whether the Fed will raise rates in September, requiring caution regarding the sustainability of the gold price rebound.On August 13th, the "Opinions of the CPC Guangdong Provincial Committee and the Guangdong Provincial Peoples Government on Further Leveraging the Leading Role of Standards to Promote High-Quality Economic and Social Development in Guangdong" were released. The Opinions propose to conduct standard planning for future industries. Research and planning of standard systems will be carried out in cutting-edge fields such as embodied intelligence, biomanufacturing, and quantum technology, exploring ways to guide the rapid iteration of leading and disruptive technologies through standardization. Pre-research work on standards will be strengthened to improve the scientific rigor and feasibility of standard development and shorten the cycle of transforming scientific and technological achievements into standards. Support will be given to the establishment of standardization technical organizations for future industries to promote the development and implementation of key standards.According to the Wall Street Journal, sources say Mexico is pushing for lower auto tariffs in the USMCA negotiations.
