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January 29th - On the evening of the 29th local time, the Union Election Commission of Myanmar continued to release the list of elected members of parliament for the third phase of the general election. According to preliminary results, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), Myanmars largest political party, has won more than half of the seats in the House of Nationalities (Upper House) of the Union Parliament. As of now, the USDP has won more than half of the seats in both the House of Representatives (Lower House) and the House of Nationalities (Upper House) of the Union Parliament.On January 29, Premier Li Qiang and British Prime Minister Keith Starmer jointly attended the closing ceremony of the China-UK Business Council meeting at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing and delivered speeches. More than 110 representatives from Chinese and British enterprises and institutions attended. Li Qiang stated that China and the UK are important economic and trade partners with broad common interests. As long as both sides adhere to mutual respect, move in the same direction, eliminate interference, and cooperate openly, they can achieve win-win results and create common prosperity through mutual benefit. Currently, unilateralism and protectionism are on the rise, and geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, severely impacting the world economy and business development. Against this backdrop, China and the UK should continue to uphold the "ice-breaking spirit" and strengthen cooperation ties. This is not only a rational choice for both countries to cope with risks and promote common development, but also a due responsibility for China and the UK as major powers to work together to solve global problems.January 29th - Canadas trade deficit widened more than expected, driven by increased volatility in gold exports and declines in both imports and exports of motor vehicles and parts. Statistics Canada reported on Thursday that the countrys trade deficit reached C$2.2 billion in November. Economists had previously predicted a deficit of C$690 million. The agency stated that total exports fell 2.8% in November, with exports of metal and non-metallic mineral products experiencing the largest drop at 24.4%. This was primarily dragged down by a 36% decline in exports of unwrought gold, silver, platinum, and their alloys. The report noted that gold has been the main driver of volatility in Canadian exports in recent months. In November, Canadian exports of unwrought gold to the UK, the US, and Hong Kong all declined sharply.The U.S. trade deficit widened by the largest margin since 1992.The final reading of U.S. nonfarm unit labor costs for the third quarter was -1.9%, compared to an expected -1.90% and a previous reading of -1.90%.

The Dollar Index's Top-to-Bottom Reversal Indicates a Potential Momentum Shift

Drake Hampton

Apr 11, 2022 10:52

On Friday, the US Dollar fell versus a basket of foreign currencies after gaining more than 100 points for the first time in over two years. It reached a high of 100.20 during the session, its highest level since May 2020.

 

Despite the fact that it formed a potentially bearish closing price reversal top, it ended the week up 1.3 percent. Throughout the week, the dollar index was mostly supported by a rise in US Treasury yields and a weaker Euro.

 

The June US Dollar Index closed at 99.753 on Friday, down 0.007 or -0.01 percent. The Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund ETF (UUP) closed at $26.68, an increase of $0.01 or 0.02%.

 

On Friday, the US Treasury 10-year yield surpassed 2.7 percent for the first time in three years, aided by the likelihood of more aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. Additionally, this week's release of the Fed's March meeting minutes revealed that "many" members were prepared to raise rates in future months in 50-basis-point increments.

 

In other news, the Euro was under pressure as the election battle between President Emmanuel Macron and far-right contender Marine Le Pen tightened in France, the Euro Zone's second-largest economy. Macron continues to lead polls.

Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is upward. However, Friday's closing price reversal top implies that momentum is about to move downward.

 

A move above 99.745 will confirm the price reversal top at the close. This could initiate a 2-3 day adjustment. A break of 100.200 will invalidate the chart pattern and suggest the resumed uptrend. The primary trend will revert to the downside upon a break of 97.730.

 

Minor values range from 97.730 to 100.200. The nearest support level is at its 50% level, or pivot, of 98.965.

 

The critical support level is the long-term Fibonacci retracement level around 98.200.

Scenario of the Bear

Persistent movement below 99.975 indicates the existence of sellers. Taking out 99.745 will confirm the price reversal top at the close. If this generates sufficient downside momentum, expect the selling to extend towards the minor pivot at 98.965.

Scenario of Bullishness

Sustaining a move over 99.975 indicates the presence of buyers. The initial objective on the upside is 100.200.

 

If 100.200 is breached, the closing price reversal top will be invalidated, signaling the resumption of the uptrend. If buying is sufficiently strong, we may see an acceleration to the upside, with the next big objective of 100.560 – 100.930.

 

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