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July 15th - According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of the year, the national online retail sales of goods and services reached 10,071.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. Among them, online retail sales of goods reached 6,429.6 billion yuan, an increase of 4.8%; within online retail sales of goods, food, clothing, and daily necessities increased by 16.8%, 6.2%, and 1.3% respectively. Online retail sales of services reached 3,641.9 billion yuan, an increase of 6.0%.According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of the year, investment in high-tech industries increased by 4.6% year-on-year, with investment in the aviation, spacecraft and equipment manufacturing, computer and office equipment manufacturing, and information services industries increasing by 23.3%, 8.1%, and 15.5% year-on-year, respectively.July 15th - According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of the year, by location of business, urban retail sales of consumer goods reached 21,550.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%; rural retail sales of consumer goods reached 3,321.6 billion yuan, an increase of 2.5%. In June, urban retail sales of consumer goods reached 3,684.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%; rural retail sales of consumer goods reached 584.7 billion yuan, an increase of 2.1%. By consumption type, in the first half of the year, retail sales of goods reached 22,046.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%; catering revenue reached 2,825.5 billion yuan, an increase of 2.8%. In June, retail sales of goods reached 3,792.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%; catering revenue reached 476.7 billion yuan, an increase of 1.2%. By retail format, in the first half of the year, among retail enterprises above the designated size, convenience stores and supermarkets saw year-on-year increases of 6.6% and 3.8% respectively; specialty stores, department stores, and brand specialty stores saw decreases of 1.5%, 2.1%, and 8.7% respectively.According to the National Bureau of Statistics, private fixed asset investment fell by 8.5% year-on-year in the first half of the year. On a month-on-month basis, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) fell by 0.37% in June.July 15th - According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to June, by industry, investment in the primary sector reached 460 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%; investment in the secondary sector reached 8.312 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.1%; and investment in the tertiary sector reached 13.8649 trillion yuan, a decrease of 8.4%. Industrial investment decreased by 1.1% year-on-year. Among them, investment in mining increased by 5.9%, investment in manufacturing decreased by 1.2%, and investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water decreased by 2.7%. Infrastructure investment decreased by 2.4% year-on-year. Among them, investment in information transmission increased by 25.6%, investment in water transportation increased by 19.8%, and investment in air transportation increased by 11.0%.

The Dollar Index's Top-to-Bottom Reversal Indicates a Potential Momentum Shift

Drake Hampton

Apr 11, 2022 10:52

On Friday, the US Dollar fell versus a basket of foreign currencies after gaining more than 100 points for the first time in over two years. It reached a high of 100.20 during the session, its highest level since May 2020.

 

Despite the fact that it formed a potentially bearish closing price reversal top, it ended the week up 1.3 percent. Throughout the week, the dollar index was mostly supported by a rise in US Treasury yields and a weaker Euro.

 

The June US Dollar Index closed at 99.753 on Friday, down 0.007 or -0.01 percent. The Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund ETF (UUP) closed at $26.68, an increase of $0.01 or 0.02%.

 

On Friday, the US Treasury 10-year yield surpassed 2.7 percent for the first time in three years, aided by the likelihood of more aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. Additionally, this week's release of the Fed's March meeting minutes revealed that "many" members were prepared to raise rates in future months in 50-basis-point increments.

 

In other news, the Euro was under pressure as the election battle between President Emmanuel Macron and far-right contender Marine Le Pen tightened in France, the Euro Zone's second-largest economy. Macron continues to lead polls.

Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is upward. However, Friday's closing price reversal top implies that momentum is about to move downward.

 

A move above 99.745 will confirm the price reversal top at the close. This could initiate a 2-3 day adjustment. A break of 100.200 will invalidate the chart pattern and suggest the resumed uptrend. The primary trend will revert to the downside upon a break of 97.730.

 

Minor values range from 97.730 to 100.200. The nearest support level is at its 50% level, or pivot, of 98.965.

 

The critical support level is the long-term Fibonacci retracement level around 98.200.

Scenario of the Bear

Persistent movement below 99.975 indicates the existence of sellers. Taking out 99.745 will confirm the price reversal top at the close. If this generates sufficient downside momentum, expect the selling to extend towards the minor pivot at 98.965.

Scenario of Bullishness

Sustaining a move over 99.975 indicates the presence of buyers. The initial objective on the upside is 100.200.

 

If 100.200 is breached, the closing price reversal top will be invalidated, signaling the resumption of the uptrend. If buying is sufficiently strong, we may see an acceleration to the upside, with the next big objective of 100.560 – 100.930.

 

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