EUR/USD 1.15689
0.044%
Gold 3983.95
0.200%
Oil 61.106
-0.069%
USD/JPY 152.933
-0.096%
GBP/USD 1.33061
0.025%
GBP/JPY 203.499
-0.055%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
Feds Daly: Even if artificial intelligence isnt as disruptive as some are betting, well still see productivity gains.On October 10th, UBS Research reported that HSBC announced its intention to acquire the remaining 36.5% stake in Hang Seng Bank (00011.HK) for HK$155 per share, plus a third interim dividend. This offer represents a significant 30% premium to Hang Seng Banks last closing price and implies a price-to-book ratio of 1.8x for the 2025 fiscal year. According to the company, the privatization will not affect Hang Seng Banks status as an independently licensed bank, but will strengthen coordination between HSBC and Hang Seng Bank, thereby generating medium-term revenue and cost synergies. UBS stated that the privatization proposal is expected to be completed in the first half of 2026 and requires approval by minority shareholders of at least 75% of the voting rights. According to the Hong Kong Stock Exchanges shareholding disclosure, there are no other significant shareholders besides HSBC. Minority ownership appears to be highly dispersed, primarily comprised of passive funds. Beyond the minority shareholder vote, there has been no discussion of regulatory stances on the privatization transaction. UBS believes HSBC has strong reasons to believe there will be no significant regulatory hurdles. UBS has a sell rating on Hang Seng Bank with a target price of HK$102.On October 10, Capital Economics Head of Asia-Pacific Markets, Thomas Mathews, said the firm no longer expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates this month, but maintained its forecast for the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield. He noted that the 10-year yield is currently close to Capital Economics forecast of 1.75% for the end of 2025. "Even if the Bank of Japan does not raise rates this year, we doubt long-term JGBs will rebound significantly, as it would likely be interpreted as a delay rather than a cancellation of tightening policy," Mathews said in a report. Because the Bank of Japan expects an eventual rate hike larger than market expectations, Capital Economics maintained its forecast for the 10-year JGB yield of 2.00% for the end of 2026. The yield recently traded around 1.690%.Feds Daly: The best way to maintain the independence of the Federal Reserve is to do our job well.On October 10th, Thomas Mathews, Head of Asia-Pacific Markets at Capital Economics, expressed doubts that Sanae Takaichis election as Liberal Democratic Party president and her impending premiership would significantly alter the overall path of monetary policy, despite some dovish comments from her and her advisors. Mathews stated that Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is clearly cautious about raising interest rates and is unlikely to surprise the market. "Thus, given Takaichis victory and the market reaction it triggered, our previous expectation of an October rate hike now looks significantly less likely," he noted. Capital Economics currently expects the Bank of Japans next rate hike to occur in January of next year, and projects it to reach 1.50% by the end of 2027, which is higher than current market expectations.

The Dollar Index's Top-to-Bottom Reversal Indicates a Potential Momentum Shift

Drake Hampton

Apr 11, 2022 10:52

On Friday, the US Dollar fell versus a basket of foreign currencies after gaining more than 100 points for the first time in over two years. It reached a high of 100.20 during the session, its highest level since May 2020.

 

Despite the fact that it formed a potentially bearish closing price reversal top, it ended the week up 1.3 percent. Throughout the week, the dollar index was mostly supported by a rise in US Treasury yields and a weaker Euro.

 

The June US Dollar Index closed at 99.753 on Friday, down 0.007 or -0.01 percent. The Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund ETF (UUP) closed at $26.68, an increase of $0.01 or 0.02%.

 

On Friday, the US Treasury 10-year yield surpassed 2.7 percent for the first time in three years, aided by the likelihood of more aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. Additionally, this week's release of the Fed's March meeting minutes revealed that "many" members were prepared to raise rates in future months in 50-basis-point increments.

 

In other news, the Euro was under pressure as the election battle between President Emmanuel Macron and far-right contender Marine Le Pen tightened in France, the Euro Zone's second-largest economy. Macron continues to lead polls.

Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is upward. However, Friday's closing price reversal top implies that momentum is about to move downward.

 

A move above 99.745 will confirm the price reversal top at the close. This could initiate a 2-3 day adjustment. A break of 100.200 will invalidate the chart pattern and suggest the resumed uptrend. The primary trend will revert to the downside upon a break of 97.730.

 

Minor values range from 97.730 to 100.200. The nearest support level is at its 50% level, or pivot, of 98.965.

 

The critical support level is the long-term Fibonacci retracement level around 98.200.

Scenario of the Bear

Persistent movement below 99.975 indicates the existence of sellers. Taking out 99.745 will confirm the price reversal top at the close. If this generates sufficient downside momentum, expect the selling to extend towards the minor pivot at 98.965.

Scenario of Bullishness

Sustaining a move over 99.975 indicates the presence of buyers. The initial objective on the upside is 100.200.

 

If 100.200 is breached, the closing price reversal top will be invalidated, signaling the resumption of the uptrend. If buying is sufficiently strong, we may see an acceleration to the upside, with the next big objective of 100.560 – 100.930.

 

Our economic calendar contains a complete listing of today's economic happenings.

Suggestion