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January 8th - British businesses expect a slight slowdown in wage growth and a slower pace of price increases over the next 12 months, a welcome sign for Bank of England officials who have been wary of overly high expectations. In the average survey for the fourth quarter, respondents expected wage growth of 3.7%, down 0.1 percentage points from the three months to November. Meanwhile, businesses expected their own price increases of 3.6%, also down 0.1 percentage points from the previous period. Bank of England policymakers had previously worried that wage and price expectations would remain high after inflation surged again to nearly double the 2% target last year. However, price pressures have eased faster than the Bank expected in recent months, and measures in the budget are expected to bring inflation down to near 2% by spring. A Bank of England survey of chief financial officers showed that businesses cut 0.4% of their workforce last year. The number of employees rose 0.5% year-on-year in December, recovering from a 1.8% drop in November. However, businesses still expect job cuts over the next 12 months, forecasting a further decline of 0.4% – the worst reading since 2020.January 8th - Storage and mass storage companies were the best-performing group in the S&P 500 last year. This sector has surged as massive investments in AI infrastructure have permeated some traditionally stable areas of the tech industry. Led by SanDisk, Western Digital, Seagate Technology, and Micron Technology, this group remains among the top performers in the index at the start of 2026. SanDisk rose 16% on the first trading day of the year, followed by a 28% surge on Tuesday. The stock rose 1.1% on Wednesday, bringing its year-to-date gain to 49%. Meanwhile, Western Digital, Seagate, and Micron all recorded double-digit percentage gains at the start of 2026, although all three stocks declined on Wednesday. Peter Andersen, chief investment officer at Andersen Capital Management, said the recent strong momentum is visually justified given the AI data center construction narrative, but he is increasingly concerned that the market is over-extrapolating future demand and underestimating historical cyclicality, as well as the risks of overcapacity and price pressures. This rally may be unsustainable in the short term. For example, SanDisk and Micron both have 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) values above 70, which some technical analysts consider an overbought signal for the stocks.Germany and India are close to reaching an $8 billion submarine deal.Hungarian Cabinet Minister Gulyás: Hungary needs assurances from the United States regarding the lifting of sanctions against NIS (National Oil Company of Serbia).Ukrainian President Zelensky: Diplomatic efforts should not lead to a slowdown in the delivery of air defense weapons to Ukraine.

The Dollar Index's Top-to-Bottom Reversal Indicates a Potential Momentum Shift

Drake Hampton

Apr 11, 2022 10:52

On Friday, the US Dollar fell versus a basket of foreign currencies after gaining more than 100 points for the first time in over two years. It reached a high of 100.20 during the session, its highest level since May 2020.

 

Despite the fact that it formed a potentially bearish closing price reversal top, it ended the week up 1.3 percent. Throughout the week, the dollar index was mostly supported by a rise in US Treasury yields and a weaker Euro.

 

The June US Dollar Index closed at 99.753 on Friday, down 0.007 or -0.01 percent. The Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund ETF (UUP) closed at $26.68, an increase of $0.01 or 0.02%.

 

On Friday, the US Treasury 10-year yield surpassed 2.7 percent for the first time in three years, aided by the likelihood of more aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. Additionally, this week's release of the Fed's March meeting minutes revealed that "many" members were prepared to raise rates in future months in 50-basis-point increments.

 

In other news, the Euro was under pressure as the election battle between President Emmanuel Macron and far-right contender Marine Le Pen tightened in France, the Euro Zone's second-largest economy. Macron continues to lead polls.

Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is upward. However, Friday's closing price reversal top implies that momentum is about to move downward.

 

A move above 99.745 will confirm the price reversal top at the close. This could initiate a 2-3 day adjustment. A break of 100.200 will invalidate the chart pattern and suggest the resumed uptrend. The primary trend will revert to the downside upon a break of 97.730.

 

Minor values range from 97.730 to 100.200. The nearest support level is at its 50% level, or pivot, of 98.965.

 

The critical support level is the long-term Fibonacci retracement level around 98.200.

Scenario of the Bear

Persistent movement below 99.975 indicates the existence of sellers. Taking out 99.745 will confirm the price reversal top at the close. If this generates sufficient downside momentum, expect the selling to extend towards the minor pivot at 98.965.

Scenario of Bullishness

Sustaining a move over 99.975 indicates the presence of buyers. The initial objective on the upside is 100.200.

 

If 100.200 is breached, the closing price reversal top will be invalidated, signaling the resumption of the uptrend. If buying is sufficiently strong, we may see an acceleration to the upside, with the next big objective of 100.560 – 100.930.

 

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