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According to Russian reports, the next trilateral meeting between Russia and Ukraine may not be held in Geneva.Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said on Wednesday that the rift between the Federal Reserve and the White House has begun to erode public trust in the central banks apolitical position. This is one of the most direct warnings yet from a senior monetary policy official about the consequences of Trumps hawkish stance on the Fed. In his farewell address before retiring from the Atlanta Fed at the end of February, Bostic said his colleagues within the Fed system remain committed to keeping their work separate from politics. "But my visits over the past few months have made it clear that the legal and verbal battles surrounding the central bank have led people from all walks of life to question the Feds independence, which is a serious concern." Bostic is not the only Fed official this year to emphasize the importance of central bank independence, but no one has warned as directly as he did on Wednesday that the current controversies could undermine public trust in the institution.The vote count showed that the French government survived its first vote of no confidence in parliament.February 26 - According to the Cuban Embassy in the United States, the Cuban Ministry of the Interior issued a statement saying that when a border patrol vessel approached a U.S. speedboat for identification checks, the crew of the speedboat opened fire on the Cuban personnel, injuring the Cuban patrol vessels commander. As of the time of this announcement, four attackers on the foreign vessel have died and six others have been injured.Federal Reserves Bostic: A broad group has begun to question the Feds independence. The Feds independence in setting monetary policy has improved economic outcomes and market confidence, helping to maintain the U.S.s status as a safe haven.

The Dollar Index's Top-to-Bottom Reversal Indicates a Potential Momentum Shift

Drake Hampton

Apr 11, 2022 10:52

On Friday, the US Dollar fell versus a basket of foreign currencies after gaining more than 100 points for the first time in over two years. It reached a high of 100.20 during the session, its highest level since May 2020.

 

Despite the fact that it formed a potentially bearish closing price reversal top, it ended the week up 1.3 percent. Throughout the week, the dollar index was mostly supported by a rise in US Treasury yields and a weaker Euro.

 

The June US Dollar Index closed at 99.753 on Friday, down 0.007 or -0.01 percent. The Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund ETF (UUP) closed at $26.68, an increase of $0.01 or 0.02%.

 

On Friday, the US Treasury 10-year yield surpassed 2.7 percent for the first time in three years, aided by the likelihood of more aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. Additionally, this week's release of the Fed's March meeting minutes revealed that "many" members were prepared to raise rates in future months in 50-basis-point increments.

 

In other news, the Euro was under pressure as the election battle between President Emmanuel Macron and far-right contender Marine Le Pen tightened in France, the Euro Zone's second-largest economy. Macron continues to lead polls.

Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is upward. However, Friday's closing price reversal top implies that momentum is about to move downward.

 

A move above 99.745 will confirm the price reversal top at the close. This could initiate a 2-3 day adjustment. A break of 100.200 will invalidate the chart pattern and suggest the resumed uptrend. The primary trend will revert to the downside upon a break of 97.730.

 

Minor values range from 97.730 to 100.200. The nearest support level is at its 50% level, or pivot, of 98.965.

 

The critical support level is the long-term Fibonacci retracement level around 98.200.

Scenario of the Bear

Persistent movement below 99.975 indicates the existence of sellers. Taking out 99.745 will confirm the price reversal top at the close. If this generates sufficient downside momentum, expect the selling to extend towards the minor pivot at 98.965.

Scenario of Bullishness

Sustaining a move over 99.975 indicates the presence of buyers. The initial objective on the upside is 100.200.

 

If 100.200 is breached, the closing price reversal top will be invalidated, signaling the resumption of the uptrend. If buying is sufficiently strong, we may see an acceleration to the upside, with the next big objective of 100.560 – 100.930.

 

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