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September 12th - On September 12th, the Beijing-Xiongan Express Line, constructed and managed by Xiongan Group Rail Transit Company, officially commenced full-line trial operation. As a landmark project of the Beijing-Xiongan one-hour metropolitan area, this full-line trial operation marks a crucial step towards the integrated operation of the Beijing-Xiongan Express Line and the Beijing Subway Daxing Airport Line, accelerating the transformation of the "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei on Rails" from blueprint to reality.September 12th - According to Shenzhen Customs, in the first eight months of this year, Shenzhens import and export value with other BRICS member countries reached 246.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%. Among them, the export value reached 207.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%; and the import value reached 39.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.9%.September 12th - According to the Financial Times, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Kocher warned that if oil prices continue to hover around $100 per barrel by the end of the year, the central bank will have to raise interest rates further. Following the ECBs second increase in borrowing costs on Thursday, Austrian central bank president Kocher stated that "inflation risks are higher than a few months ago" due to continued tensions in the Middle East and persistently high energy prices. Since the collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement in early July, oil prices have risen by more than 45%, breaking through $100 per barrel. Since June, European natural gas prices have almost doubled, approaching €80 per megawatt-hour. Kocher stated, "If oil and gas prices develop in an unfavorable scenario, then... monetary policy must take these changes into account." He added that inflation risks will further intensify.According to the Financial Times, the US has restricted the timeframe for air defense operations to allow oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.September 12th - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the theme of "Starting the 15th Five-Year Plan" at 10:00 AM on Monday, September 14th, 2026. Lei Haichao, Director of the National Health Commission; Liu Jinfeng, Vice Director of the National Health Commission and Director of the State Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine; Shen Hongbing, Vice Director of the National Health Commission and Director of the National Center for Disease Control and Prevention; and Guo Yanhong, Spokesperson and Vice Director of the National Health Commission, will introduce the decisive progress made in promoting the construction of a Healthy China and answer questions from reporters.

The Dollar Index's Top-to-Bottom Reversal Indicates a Potential Momentum Shift

Drake Hampton

Apr 11, 2022 10:52

On Friday, the US Dollar fell versus a basket of foreign currencies after gaining more than 100 points for the first time in over two years. It reached a high of 100.20 during the session, its highest level since May 2020.

 

Despite the fact that it formed a potentially bearish closing price reversal top, it ended the week up 1.3 percent. Throughout the week, the dollar index was mostly supported by a rise in US Treasury yields and a weaker Euro.

 

The June US Dollar Index closed at 99.753 on Friday, down 0.007 or -0.01 percent. The Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund ETF (UUP) closed at $26.68, an increase of $0.01 or 0.02%.

 

On Friday, the US Treasury 10-year yield surpassed 2.7 percent for the first time in three years, aided by the likelihood of more aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. Additionally, this week's release of the Fed's March meeting minutes revealed that "many" members were prepared to raise rates in future months in 50-basis-point increments.

 

In other news, the Euro was under pressure as the election battle between President Emmanuel Macron and far-right contender Marine Le Pen tightened in France, the Euro Zone's second-largest economy. Macron continues to lead polls.

Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is upward. However, Friday's closing price reversal top implies that momentum is about to move downward.

 

A move above 99.745 will confirm the price reversal top at the close. This could initiate a 2-3 day adjustment. A break of 100.200 will invalidate the chart pattern and suggest the resumed uptrend. The primary trend will revert to the downside upon a break of 97.730.

 

Minor values range from 97.730 to 100.200. The nearest support level is at its 50% level, or pivot, of 98.965.

 

The critical support level is the long-term Fibonacci retracement level around 98.200.

Scenario of the Bear

Persistent movement below 99.975 indicates the existence of sellers. Taking out 99.745 will confirm the price reversal top at the close. If this generates sufficient downside momentum, expect the selling to extend towards the minor pivot at 98.965.

Scenario of Bullishness

Sustaining a move over 99.975 indicates the presence of buyers. The initial objective on the upside is 100.200.

 

If 100.200 is breached, the closing price reversal top will be invalidated, signaling the resumption of the uptrend. If buying is sufficiently strong, we may see an acceleration to the upside, with the next big objective of 100.560 – 100.930.

 

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