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On January 22, it was reported that Changan Automobile and Midea Group held a signing ceremony for a comprehensive strategic cooperation agreement on January 21. This signing signifies that, building upon their existing cooperation in digitalization, intelligent manufacturing, green energy, and logistics collaboration, the two companies will further deepen their cooperation in areas such as vehicle-home connectivity, auto parts, and omnichannel marketing.On January 22, Tenda Technology issued a price adjustment notice stating that, based on current raw material and market conditions, the company decided to raise prices for all products on January 22, with the online Tenda Yougou system implementing the increase simultaneously. This is understood to be the companys third price adjustment this month, and the second time that all its products have seen a price increase.On January 22nd, futures market news reported that oil prices fluctuated narrowly, while fuel oil saw positive news, and market participants maintained a wait-and-see attitude, providing some support. Downstream restocking was moderate, and buying interest picked up. It is expected that fuel oil trading prices will remain stable with a slight increase today.On January 22, the Venezuelan National Assembly was scheduled to discuss an oil reform plan on Thursday. If implemented, the plan would break the states monopoly on the oil industry, allowing private companies to exploit and sell the countrys abundant crude oil reserves. Previously, Venezuelan Acting President Rodriguez announced on January 15 his intention to reform the landmark hydrocarbon law, but did not provide details. The proposed amendments to the law would relax the role of the state-owned oil company, PDVSA, giving private companies greater freedom in oil extraction and sales, while reducing their tax burden. According to four sources familiar with the matter, the reform plan would also allow companies to resolve legal disputes through international arbitration rather than local courts. Oil royalties would be reduced from 33% to 20%, and income tax from 50% to 30%.Futures News, January 22nd: I. Domestic Weather (1) Low temperatures still exist in Jiangnan and other areas, with temperatures gradually rising on the 23rd. On January 22nd, low temperatures still exist in Hunan, Guizhou, Jiangxi and other areas, with temperatures gradually rising from the 23rd. (2) Heavy to blizzard conditions in southwestern Tibet. From the night of January 22nd to the 24th, moderate to heavy snow is expected in parts of western Xinjiang and southwestern Tibet, with blizzards or heavy blizzards in some areas. During this period, light to moderate snow will occur on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from west to east, and temperatures will drop by 6-8℃ after the snowfall, with some areas experiencing drops of more than 10℃. II. Global Weather (1) Strong rain, snow, strong winds and temperature drops are expected in Central Asia and West Asia. Over the next three days, affected by the low-pressure system, some areas in southern Central Asia, central and eastern Afghanistan, the Pamir Plateau, eastern Far East, and central and northern Japan will experience heavy to blizzard-like snow or sleet, with some areas experiencing heavy to extremely heavy snow. Most of these areas will see a temperature drop of 8 to 12°C, with some areas experiencing a drop of 14 to 16°C, accompanied by strong winds of level 4 to 6 and above. (2) Heavy rainfall in central and southeastern Brazil. Over the next three days, affected by the low-pressure system, some areas in Brazil, Ecuador, western Colombia, Peru, and northern Bolivia will experience moderate to heavy rain, with some areas experiencing torrential rain. (3) Heavy precipitation in southern Africa and strong winds and temperature drops in the northwest. Over the next three days, affected by the low-pressure system, some areas in southern Africa, including Madagascar and Botswana, will experience moderate to heavy rain, with some areas experiencing torrential rain, accompanied by short-term heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, strong winds, and other severe convective weather. Temperatures in Libya and other areas will drop by 6 to 10 degrees Celsius or more, accompanied by strong winds of level 4 to 6 or higher.

The Dollar Index's Top-to-Bottom Reversal Indicates a Potential Momentum Shift

Drake Hampton

Apr 11, 2022 10:52

On Friday, the US Dollar fell versus a basket of foreign currencies after gaining more than 100 points for the first time in over two years. It reached a high of 100.20 during the session, its highest level since May 2020.

 

Despite the fact that it formed a potentially bearish closing price reversal top, it ended the week up 1.3 percent. Throughout the week, the dollar index was mostly supported by a rise in US Treasury yields and a weaker Euro.

 

The June US Dollar Index closed at 99.753 on Friday, down 0.007 or -0.01 percent. The Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund ETF (UUP) closed at $26.68, an increase of $0.01 or 0.02%.

 

On Friday, the US Treasury 10-year yield surpassed 2.7 percent for the first time in three years, aided by the likelihood of more aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. Additionally, this week's release of the Fed's March meeting minutes revealed that "many" members were prepared to raise rates in future months in 50-basis-point increments.

 

In other news, the Euro was under pressure as the election battle between President Emmanuel Macron and far-right contender Marine Le Pen tightened in France, the Euro Zone's second-largest economy. Macron continues to lead polls.

Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is upward. However, Friday's closing price reversal top implies that momentum is about to move downward.

 

A move above 99.745 will confirm the price reversal top at the close. This could initiate a 2-3 day adjustment. A break of 100.200 will invalidate the chart pattern and suggest the resumed uptrend. The primary trend will revert to the downside upon a break of 97.730.

 

Minor values range from 97.730 to 100.200. The nearest support level is at its 50% level, or pivot, of 98.965.

 

The critical support level is the long-term Fibonacci retracement level around 98.200.

Scenario of the Bear

Persistent movement below 99.975 indicates the existence of sellers. Taking out 99.745 will confirm the price reversal top at the close. If this generates sufficient downside momentum, expect the selling to extend towards the minor pivot at 98.965.

Scenario of Bullishness

Sustaining a move over 99.975 indicates the presence of buyers. The initial objective on the upside is 100.200.

 

If 100.200 is breached, the closing price reversal top will be invalidated, signaling the resumption of the uptrend. If buying is sufficiently strong, we may see an acceleration to the upside, with the next big objective of 100.560 – 100.930.

 

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