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A survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Friday, August 7th, showed that Americans overall expectations for the job market improved in July, while their expectations for future inflation also declined. The survey showed that if unemployed, respondents believed they would find a new job, rising to 46.2%, the highest level this year. This improvement was most pronounced among those with a high school education or less, and those with household incomes below $50,000. Meanwhile, consumers expectations for inflation over the next year fell slightly to 3.6% from 3.7%. Inflation expectations for the next three and five years remained unchanged at 3.3% and 3%, respectively. However, consumers remain concerned about the overall labor market situation. The average probability of an increase in the unemployment rate over the next year has risen. This upward trend is prevalent across all age groups and income levels. Respondents also saw a slight increase in their perceived likelihood of losing their job within the next year, but it remains below the 12-month average.The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued a warning to the forecasting market about the risks associated with American-style odds.New York Fed: July labor market expectations were mixed. Current and expected personal financial outlook improved in July.1. US non-farm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, the first decline since February, compared to market expectations of an 80,000 increase. 2. The US unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.1% in July, the lowest level since June 2025, below the market median expectation of 4.2%. 3. US interest rate futures market pricing indicates that the expected rate hike by December is only 28 basis points, lower than the 32 basis points before the non-farm payroll data release. 4. Data released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows that private exporters reported sales of 238,000 tons of soybeans to China, to be delivered in the 2026/2027 marketing year. 5. On the evening of July 7, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Planning and Natural Resources, and the Beijing Housing Provident Fund Management Center jointly issued a "Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting the Citys Real Estate Policies," clarifying that the required years of social security or individual income tax payments for non-Beijing residents purchasing commercial housing within the Fifth Ring Road have been reduced from "2 years" to "1 year." 6. White House National Economic Council Director Hassett: I believe President Trump will not give Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh advice on interest rates. 7. According to the Globe and Mail, as negotiations intensify ahead of the US threat to impose a new round of tariffs, Canada and the US are discussing a potential agreement: Ottawa would agree to meet a series of trade demands put forward by the Trump administration in exchange for tariff reductions for some industries.The New York Fed: In July, the three-year inflation forecast remained unchanged at 3.3%; the five-year inflation forecast remained unchanged at 3%.

The Dollar Index's Top-to-Bottom Reversal Indicates a Potential Momentum Shift

Drake Hampton

Apr 11, 2022 10:52

On Friday, the US Dollar fell versus a basket of foreign currencies after gaining more than 100 points for the first time in over two years. It reached a high of 100.20 during the session, its highest level since May 2020.

 

Despite the fact that it formed a potentially bearish closing price reversal top, it ended the week up 1.3 percent. Throughout the week, the dollar index was mostly supported by a rise in US Treasury yields and a weaker Euro.

 

The June US Dollar Index closed at 99.753 on Friday, down 0.007 or -0.01 percent. The Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund ETF (UUP) closed at $26.68, an increase of $0.01 or 0.02%.

 

On Friday, the US Treasury 10-year yield surpassed 2.7 percent for the first time in three years, aided by the likelihood of more aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. Additionally, this week's release of the Fed's March meeting minutes revealed that "many" members were prepared to raise rates in future months in 50-basis-point increments.

 

In other news, the Euro was under pressure as the election battle between President Emmanuel Macron and far-right contender Marine Le Pen tightened in France, the Euro Zone's second-largest economy. Macron continues to lead polls.

Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is upward. However, Friday's closing price reversal top implies that momentum is about to move downward.

 

A move above 99.745 will confirm the price reversal top at the close. This could initiate a 2-3 day adjustment. A break of 100.200 will invalidate the chart pattern and suggest the resumed uptrend. The primary trend will revert to the downside upon a break of 97.730.

 

Minor values range from 97.730 to 100.200. The nearest support level is at its 50% level, or pivot, of 98.965.

 

The critical support level is the long-term Fibonacci retracement level around 98.200.

Scenario of the Bear

Persistent movement below 99.975 indicates the existence of sellers. Taking out 99.745 will confirm the price reversal top at the close. If this generates sufficient downside momentum, expect the selling to extend towards the minor pivot at 98.965.

Scenario of Bullishness

Sustaining a move over 99.975 indicates the presence of buyers. The initial objective on the upside is 100.200.

 

If 100.200 is breached, the closing price reversal top will be invalidated, signaling the resumption of the uptrend. If buying is sufficiently strong, we may see an acceleration to the upside, with the next big objective of 100.560 – 100.930.

 

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