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On June 16, the State Administration for Market Regulation approved the establishment of the National Technical Committee on Metrology of Standard Reference Data (MTC48). This is an important measure for my country to accelerate the construction of an independent, controllable, authoritative, and reliable standard reference data system and enhance its self-sufficiency in key basic data. After its establishment, the National Technical Committee on Metrology of Standard Reference Data will focus on fundamental and common issues in the construction of standard reference data, promote the formation of an authoritative, reliable, collaborative, and efficient technical system, and coordinate the construction and application of a number of urgently needed, critical, and fundamental standard reference data in key areas such as artificial intelligence, quantum technology, advanced materials, life sciences, green and low-carbon technologies, and advanced manufacturing. This will provide strong and reliable data support for scientific discovery, technological breakthroughs, industrial development, and modernization of governance.On June 16th, European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Lane stated that although the inflationary pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict have not yet fully materialized, the ECB must be prepared for them. Lane noted that despite the agreement reached between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices have not simply returned to their pre-crisis trajectory. "Four months of high energy prices mean that, in terms of the inflation transmission chain, we will see inflation exceeding 3% in the future. This year and next, energy prices will indirectly affect food, goods, and services prices." Investors and economists generally expect the ECB to raise interest rates by at least another 25 basis points, bringing the rate to 2.5%, and anticipate inflation to remain above the 2% target level for some time. Even if shipping returns to normal, it will take months for oil supplies to return to normal, and high energy costs are likely to increasingly be passed on to consumer prices. Lane stated that oil prices are unlikely to fall significantly from their current level of $80 to $81 per barrel.June 16 - Kpler analysts stated that tanker activity is likely to see an initial surge following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Approximately 118 fully loaded vessels previously stranded in the strait are expected to depart first, driving a significant but brief spike in transit volume in the initial 10 to 15 days. The main uncertainty lies in how quickly new vessels will re-enter the area. Analysts Matt Wright and Panagiotis Krontiras stated that in the most optimistic scenario, if security concerns are completely eliminated, traffic could rebound rapidly, even briefly exceeding pre-war levels, although this outcome is considered unlikely. In the baseline scenario, the recovery will be more gradual, with transit volume increasing from approximately 15 vessels per day initially to 40 by the end of the month, of which tankers will account for about 60%.SpaceX (SPCX.O) shares rose 15%, surpassing Microsoft (MSFT.O) to become the worlds fourth-largest company by market capitalization.According to Hong Kong Stock Exchange documents, Shenzhen Kubo Energy Co., Ltd. has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

The Dollar Index's Top-to-Bottom Reversal Indicates a Potential Momentum Shift

Drake Hampton

Apr 11, 2022 10:52

On Friday, the US Dollar fell versus a basket of foreign currencies after gaining more than 100 points for the first time in over two years. It reached a high of 100.20 during the session, its highest level since May 2020.

 

Despite the fact that it formed a potentially bearish closing price reversal top, it ended the week up 1.3 percent. Throughout the week, the dollar index was mostly supported by a rise in US Treasury yields and a weaker Euro.

 

The June US Dollar Index closed at 99.753 on Friday, down 0.007 or -0.01 percent. The Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund ETF (UUP) closed at $26.68, an increase of $0.01 or 0.02%.

 

On Friday, the US Treasury 10-year yield surpassed 2.7 percent for the first time in three years, aided by the likelihood of more aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. Additionally, this week's release of the Fed's March meeting minutes revealed that "many" members were prepared to raise rates in future months in 50-basis-point increments.

 

In other news, the Euro was under pressure as the election battle between President Emmanuel Macron and far-right contender Marine Le Pen tightened in France, the Euro Zone's second-largest economy. Macron continues to lead polls.

Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is upward. However, Friday's closing price reversal top implies that momentum is about to move downward.

 

A move above 99.745 will confirm the price reversal top at the close. This could initiate a 2-3 day adjustment. A break of 100.200 will invalidate the chart pattern and suggest the resumed uptrend. The primary trend will revert to the downside upon a break of 97.730.

 

Minor values range from 97.730 to 100.200. The nearest support level is at its 50% level, or pivot, of 98.965.

 

The critical support level is the long-term Fibonacci retracement level around 98.200.

Scenario of the Bear

Persistent movement below 99.975 indicates the existence of sellers. Taking out 99.745 will confirm the price reversal top at the close. If this generates sufficient downside momentum, expect the selling to extend towards the minor pivot at 98.965.

Scenario of Bullishness

Sustaining a move over 99.975 indicates the presence of buyers. The initial objective on the upside is 100.200.

 

If 100.200 is breached, the closing price reversal top will be invalidated, signaling the resumption of the uptrend. If buying is sufficiently strong, we may see an acceleration to the upside, with the next big objective of 100.560 – 100.930.

 

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