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July 19th - According to Axios, US military officials stated that two US service members were killed and several others injured in an Iranian ballistic missile attack on a Jordanian airbase on Saturday. This attack marks the first US military deaths since the conflict resumed two weeks ago. It also brings the total number of US military deaths in this round of the war to 16. It is reported that Iran launched at least two ballistic missiles on Saturday, hitting the Mowafak Salti airbase in Jordan. This base houses US troops and fighter jets.U.S. Central Command: Two U.S. service members were killed in Jordan on July 17, and another U.S. service member is missing.July 19th - A study released on the 18th by the Italian Confederation of Business, Tourism and Services Businesses indicates that with increasingly frequent extreme weather events, prolonged heatwaves could cause Italy economic losses of €6 billion to €12 billion (approximately RMB 46.5 billion to 93 billion) annually. The report points out that if Italy experiences 30 to 60 days of extreme heat each year, businesses will face multiple pressures, including rising energy costs, decreased labor productivity, forced increases in adaptive investments, and reduced turnover. High temperatures will also alter consumer and tourism habits, further impacting the commerce and tourism sectors.On July 19th, local time, on the evening of July 18th, Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei stated that the United States repeated violations of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (Iran-US Memorandum of Understanding) once again proved that the signature of the US president was "worthless and invalid." In a statement, Khamenei emphasized that the US actions exposed "bullying, power politics, and barbarity" as integral parts of American behavior and style. He stated that the US "has once again revealed its true and undisguised face. This dark experience filled with evil and treachery has once again become irrefutable evidence of the USs hypocrisy, unreasonableness, breach of trust, and despicable nature. Iran and the resistance have left the US with unforgettable lessons."The UK Maritime Trade Operations Office has received a report of an incident involving a merchant vessel and military forces approximately 100 nautical miles east of Duqm, Oman. The report indicates that the tanker was affected by ongoing military activity in the area.

The Dollar Index's Top-to-Bottom Reversal Indicates a Potential Momentum Shift

Drake Hampton

Apr 11, 2022 10:52

On Friday, the US Dollar fell versus a basket of foreign currencies after gaining more than 100 points for the first time in over two years. It reached a high of 100.20 during the session, its highest level since May 2020.

 

Despite the fact that it formed a potentially bearish closing price reversal top, it ended the week up 1.3 percent. Throughout the week, the dollar index was mostly supported by a rise in US Treasury yields and a weaker Euro.

 

The June US Dollar Index closed at 99.753 on Friday, down 0.007 or -0.01 percent. The Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund ETF (UUP) closed at $26.68, an increase of $0.01 or 0.02%.

 

On Friday, the US Treasury 10-year yield surpassed 2.7 percent for the first time in three years, aided by the likelihood of more aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. Additionally, this week's release of the Fed's March meeting minutes revealed that "many" members were prepared to raise rates in future months in 50-basis-point increments.

 

In other news, the Euro was under pressure as the election battle between President Emmanuel Macron and far-right contender Marine Le Pen tightened in France, the Euro Zone's second-largest economy. Macron continues to lead polls.

Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is upward. However, Friday's closing price reversal top implies that momentum is about to move downward.

 

A move above 99.745 will confirm the price reversal top at the close. This could initiate a 2-3 day adjustment. A break of 100.200 will invalidate the chart pattern and suggest the resumed uptrend. The primary trend will revert to the downside upon a break of 97.730.

 

Minor values range from 97.730 to 100.200. The nearest support level is at its 50% level, or pivot, of 98.965.

 

The critical support level is the long-term Fibonacci retracement level around 98.200.

Scenario of the Bear

Persistent movement below 99.975 indicates the existence of sellers. Taking out 99.745 will confirm the price reversal top at the close. If this generates sufficient downside momentum, expect the selling to extend towards the minor pivot at 98.965.

Scenario of Bullishness

Sustaining a move over 99.975 indicates the presence of buyers. The initial objective on the upside is 100.200.

 

If 100.200 is breached, the closing price reversal top will be invalidated, signaling the resumption of the uptrend. If buying is sufficiently strong, we may see an acceleration to the upside, with the next big objective of 100.560 – 100.930.

 

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