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On July 17, due to previous rainfall and upstream water flow, the water level at the Mudanjiang Hydrological Station on the middle reaches of the Mudanjiang River, a tributary of the Songhua River, rose to the warning level (235.00 meters) at 9:00 AM. According to the regulations for numbering floods in major rivers, this flood is designated as "Mudanjiang Flood No. 1 of 2026". The Ministry of Water Resources is closely monitoring the flood situation in the Songhua River, Mudanjiang River, and other rivers, strengthening rainfall and water level monitoring, increasing the frequency of rolling forecasts and warnings, activating the flood defense emergency response in advance, and dispatching working groups to the front lines to provide assistance and guidance. It is also urging local authorities to strengthen the scheduling of water conservancy projects in the basin, implement all flood defense measures meticulously, and relocate people in danger zones in advance to ensure the safety of peoples lives.On July 17, Li Bin, Deputy Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that SAFE has strengthened foreign exchange market supervision and cracked down on illegal foreign exchange activities such as underground banks. In the first half of this year, over 300 related cases were investigated and dealt with, with fines and confiscations exceeding 400 million yuan, effectively maintaining the order of the foreign exchange market.On July 17, the Information Office of the Hubei Provincial Peoples Government held a press conference to introduce the economic performance of Hubei Province in the first half of 2026. According to the unified accounting results of regional GDP, Hubei Provinces GDP in the first half of the year was 3,133.672 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.0% at constant prices.On July 17, Li Bin, Deputy Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that the State Administration of Foreign Exchange has always adhered to the principle of combining facilitation with risk prevention, resolutely safeguarding the bottom line of security under open conditions, continuously improving the "macro-prudential + micro-regulatory" dual management framework, strengthening counter-cyclical adjustments and expectation guidance when necessary, maintaining the stable operation of the foreign exchange market, and preventing systemic risks.On July 17th, at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office, Xiao Sheng, Director of the Capital Markets Department of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, stated that my countrys external debt has remained generally stable, with continuous structural optimization and high security. Over the past three years, my countrys external debt has remained relatively stable between US$2.3 trillion and US$2.5 trillion. By the end of the first quarter of 2026, RMB-denominated external debt accounted for 55%, an increase of 10 percentage points compared to the end of 2022; the proportion of medium- and long-term external debt remained stable at over 40%, and the risk of maturity and currency mismatch in external debt has significantly decreased. At the end of 2025, my countrys debt-to-equity ratio, debt service ratio, and the ratio of short-term external debt to foreign exchange reserves were 11.9%, 56.3%, 6.2%, and 39.2%, respectively, all significantly lower than international safety warning lines.

The Dollar Index's Top-to-Bottom Reversal Indicates a Potential Momentum Shift

Drake Hampton

Apr 11, 2022 10:52

On Friday, the US Dollar fell versus a basket of foreign currencies after gaining more than 100 points for the first time in over two years. It reached a high of 100.20 during the session, its highest level since May 2020.

 

Despite the fact that it formed a potentially bearish closing price reversal top, it ended the week up 1.3 percent. Throughout the week, the dollar index was mostly supported by a rise in US Treasury yields and a weaker Euro.

 

The June US Dollar Index closed at 99.753 on Friday, down 0.007 or -0.01 percent. The Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund ETF (UUP) closed at $26.68, an increase of $0.01 or 0.02%.

 

On Friday, the US Treasury 10-year yield surpassed 2.7 percent for the first time in three years, aided by the likelihood of more aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. Additionally, this week's release of the Fed's March meeting minutes revealed that "many" members were prepared to raise rates in future months in 50-basis-point increments.

 

In other news, the Euro was under pressure as the election battle between President Emmanuel Macron and far-right contender Marine Le Pen tightened in France, the Euro Zone's second-largest economy. Macron continues to lead polls.

Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is upward. However, Friday's closing price reversal top implies that momentum is about to move downward.

 

A move above 99.745 will confirm the price reversal top at the close. This could initiate a 2-3 day adjustment. A break of 100.200 will invalidate the chart pattern and suggest the resumed uptrend. The primary trend will revert to the downside upon a break of 97.730.

 

Minor values range from 97.730 to 100.200. The nearest support level is at its 50% level, or pivot, of 98.965.

 

The critical support level is the long-term Fibonacci retracement level around 98.200.

Scenario of the Bear

Persistent movement below 99.975 indicates the existence of sellers. Taking out 99.745 will confirm the price reversal top at the close. If this generates sufficient downside momentum, expect the selling to extend towards the minor pivot at 98.965.

Scenario of Bullishness

Sustaining a move over 99.975 indicates the presence of buyers. The initial objective on the upside is 100.200.

 

If 100.200 is breached, the closing price reversal top will be invalidated, signaling the resumption of the uptrend. If buying is sufficiently strong, we may see an acceleration to the upside, with the next big objective of 100.560 – 100.930.

 

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