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August 24th - According to a report from the U.S. Central Command on August 23rd, the U.S. guided-missile destroyer USS John Finn is currently sailing in the Arabian Sea, carrying out the U.S. maritime blockade mission against Iran. As of August 23rd, the U.S. military has ordered 70 merchant ships to change course, rendered 3 merchant ships immobile, and boarded and inspected 2 other merchant ships.On August 24, a 14-year-old Palestinian boy died after being shot by Israeli forces at a refugee camp near the West Bank city of Nablus. Separately, Palestinian health officials in the Gaza Strip stated that Israeli airstrikes on central and southern Gaza on August 23 resulted in at least two deaths and several injuries. Among the dead was a four-year-old child.According to the Washington Post, data from the U.S. Department of Defenses casualty statistics system shows that U.S. military casualties in the war with Iran have risen to 774, including 18 deaths and 756 injuries. Even during periods without large-scale combat, the Department of Defense has quietly added approximately 60 new injury records recently. A large number of the wounded suffered traumatic brain injuries from the blasts during attacks on U.S. bases in Jordan, Kuwait, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia.The Israeli Prime Ministers Office reported that Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz held a security assessment meeting Sunday evening regarding the threat of drones, balloons, and kites being launched from the Gaza Strip into Israel. Israel warned Hamas that if such launches against Israel do not cease immediately, the Israel Defense Forces will intensify targeted strikes against those responsible.On August 24, according to Irans Mehr News Agency, Hassan Kashkawi, spokesman for the Iranian Parliaments National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, announced on Sunday that the committee had adopted Article 3 of the "Strategic Action Plan for Ensuring the Security and Development of the Strait of Hormuz." He stated, "According to this article, we will charge fees for the provision of maritime services, environmental services, fuel supplies in special circumstances, insurance, security, and other services." These fees will be collected from vessels of relevant countries authorized to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, paid in rials or other currencies designated by the Islamic Republic of Iran. He emphasized the importance of respecting the rights of littoral states along the Strait of Hormuz, stating, "We should not forget that international laws and regulations, in addition to recognizing freedom of navigation, also emphasize respect for the security and sovereignty of littoral states and the prevention of violations of these rights."

The Dollar Index's Top-to-Bottom Reversal Indicates a Potential Momentum Shift

Drake Hampton

Apr 11, 2022 10:52

On Friday, the US Dollar fell versus a basket of foreign currencies after gaining more than 100 points for the first time in over two years. It reached a high of 100.20 during the session, its highest level since May 2020.

 

Despite the fact that it formed a potentially bearish closing price reversal top, it ended the week up 1.3 percent. Throughout the week, the dollar index was mostly supported by a rise in US Treasury yields and a weaker Euro.

 

The June US Dollar Index closed at 99.753 on Friday, down 0.007 or -0.01 percent. The Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund ETF (UUP) closed at $26.68, an increase of $0.01 or 0.02%.

 

On Friday, the US Treasury 10-year yield surpassed 2.7 percent for the first time in three years, aided by the likelihood of more aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. Additionally, this week's release of the Fed's March meeting minutes revealed that "many" members were prepared to raise rates in future months in 50-basis-point increments.

 

In other news, the Euro was under pressure as the election battle between President Emmanuel Macron and far-right contender Marine Le Pen tightened in France, the Euro Zone's second-largest economy. Macron continues to lead polls.

Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is upward. However, Friday's closing price reversal top implies that momentum is about to move downward.

 

A move above 99.745 will confirm the price reversal top at the close. This could initiate a 2-3 day adjustment. A break of 100.200 will invalidate the chart pattern and suggest the resumed uptrend. The primary trend will revert to the downside upon a break of 97.730.

 

Minor values range from 97.730 to 100.200. The nearest support level is at its 50% level, or pivot, of 98.965.

 

The critical support level is the long-term Fibonacci retracement level around 98.200.

Scenario of the Bear

Persistent movement below 99.975 indicates the existence of sellers. Taking out 99.745 will confirm the price reversal top at the close. If this generates sufficient downside momentum, expect the selling to extend towards the minor pivot at 98.965.

Scenario of Bullishness

Sustaining a move over 99.975 indicates the presence of buyers. The initial objective on the upside is 100.200.

 

If 100.200 is breached, the closing price reversal top will be invalidated, signaling the resumption of the uptrend. If buying is sufficiently strong, we may see an acceleration to the upside, with the next big objective of 100.560 – 100.930.

 

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