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1. With the 30-year US Treasury yield rising to a 19-year high of 5.27%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield reaching 4.75%, it is once again approaching 5%. In response, US Treasury Secretary Bessenter recently intervened in the yen in conjunction with Japan, indicating a desire to adjust the supply of long-term bonds and strongly supporting Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh, employing a multi-pronged approach. 2. The three major US stock indexes closed slightly lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.11% to 53,975.98 points, the S&P 500 fell 0.06% to 7,753.11 points, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.32% to 26,605.36 points. Nvidia fell nearly 3%, and Travelers Group fell more than 2%, leading the decline in the Dow Jones. The optical communications sector opened higher but closed lower, with Coherent falling more than 14% and Lumentum falling more than 8%. The memory sector was mixed, with SanDisk rising more than 2%, SK Hynix falling nearly 2%, and Seagate Technology falling more than 1%. The Wind US Tech Big Seven Index fell 0.4%, with Apple falling more than 1% and Amazon rising more than 1%. SpaceX rose more than 4%. 3. Brent crude oil futures rose 5.18%, and WTI crude oil futures rose 5.27% to $82.30 per barrel. 4. International precious metals futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures rising 1.11% to $4448.6 per ounce and COMEX silver futures rising 3.75% to $65.88 per ounce.August 11th - A survey shows that British consumers increased their spending on food and pubs last month, driven by Englands qualification for the World Cup semi-finals and the heatwave, but remained cautious about large expenditures. Data released Tuesday by the British Retail Consortium (BRC) showed that total UK retail sales in July rose 1.3% year-on-year, below the average and lower than Junes 1.9% growth. Food sales increased by 3.8% year-on-year, while non-food sales fell by 0.7%. Clothing sales were boosted by the heatwave, but footwear sales declined. Sarah Bradbury, chief executive of the Grocery Distributors Association (IGD), said: "The food supply chain is under increasing pressure due to the Middle East conflict and the ongoing heatwave, increasing the likelihood of rising food costs and potentially putting further strain on household budgets as we head into autumn." Barclays broader consumer spending indicator showed that consumer spending rose 2.0% year-on-year in July, slightly higher than Junes 1.9%.UK BRC total retail sales rose 1.3% year-on-year in July, down from 1.9% in the previous month.UK BRC same-store retail sales rose 1% year-on-year in July, compared with 1.70% in the previous month.Libyas National Oil Corporation: If the attacks continue, it will be forced to declare force majeure and completely halt operations at the Zawiya refinery.

The Dollar Index's Top-to-Bottom Reversal Indicates a Potential Momentum Shift

Drake Hampton

Apr 11, 2022 10:52

On Friday, the US Dollar fell versus a basket of foreign currencies after gaining more than 100 points for the first time in over two years. It reached a high of 100.20 during the session, its highest level since May 2020.

 

Despite the fact that it formed a potentially bearish closing price reversal top, it ended the week up 1.3 percent. Throughout the week, the dollar index was mostly supported by a rise in US Treasury yields and a weaker Euro.

 

The June US Dollar Index closed at 99.753 on Friday, down 0.007 or -0.01 percent. The Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund ETF (UUP) closed at $26.68, an increase of $0.01 or 0.02%.

 

On Friday, the US Treasury 10-year yield surpassed 2.7 percent for the first time in three years, aided by the likelihood of more aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. Additionally, this week's release of the Fed's March meeting minutes revealed that "many" members were prepared to raise rates in future months in 50-basis-point increments.

 

In other news, the Euro was under pressure as the election battle between President Emmanuel Macron and far-right contender Marine Le Pen tightened in France, the Euro Zone's second-largest economy. Macron continues to lead polls.

Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is upward. However, Friday's closing price reversal top implies that momentum is about to move downward.

 

A move above 99.745 will confirm the price reversal top at the close. This could initiate a 2-3 day adjustment. A break of 100.200 will invalidate the chart pattern and suggest the resumed uptrend. The primary trend will revert to the downside upon a break of 97.730.

 

Minor values range from 97.730 to 100.200. The nearest support level is at its 50% level, or pivot, of 98.965.

 

The critical support level is the long-term Fibonacci retracement level around 98.200.

Scenario of the Bear

Persistent movement below 99.975 indicates the existence of sellers. Taking out 99.745 will confirm the price reversal top at the close. If this generates sufficient downside momentum, expect the selling to extend towards the minor pivot at 98.965.

Scenario of Bullishness

Sustaining a move over 99.975 indicates the presence of buyers. The initial objective on the upside is 100.200.

 

If 100.200 is breached, the closing price reversal top will be invalidated, signaling the resumption of the uptrend. If buying is sufficiently strong, we may see an acceleration to the upside, with the next big objective of 100.560 – 100.930.

 

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