EUR/USD 1.16371
0.258%
Gold 4191.29
1.186%
Oil 58.137
-0.103%
USD/JPY 151.389
-0.272%
GBP/USD 1.33553
0.270%
GBP/JPY 202.190
0.011%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
On October 15, relevant data showed that the growth rate of M1 has rebounded significantly in recent months, and the M1-M2 gap has narrowed significantly since the beginning of this year, reflecting positive signals such as the increase in corporate production and operation activity and the recovery of personal investment and consumption demand.On October 15th, Michiel Tukker, senior European interest rate strategist at ING Bank, stated in a report that despite the recent decline in US Treasury yields, ING Bank still maintains its view that Eurozone yields should remain at current levels, or even rise slightly. He pointed out that German government bonds have outperformed interest rate swaps in the past few days, reflecting the markets demand for safe assets. "As one of the few safe-haven assets that still holds a AAA rating, German government bonds are expected to perform strongly if market risk sentiment deteriorates significantly." However, Tukker added that if US Treasury yields fall sharply, "it will undoubtedly force German government bonds and swap rates to test lower levels."Russias Defense Ministry said Russian forces attacked Ukrainian energy infrastructure facilities overnight.Russias Ministry of Defense said Russian troops have captured the Oleksiyivka settlement in Ukraines Dnipropetrovsk region.Central Bank: At the end of September, the balance of broad money (M2) was 335.38 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 113.15 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.58 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.5% year-on-year. Net cash injection in the first three quarters was 761.9 billion yuan.

The Dollar Index's Top-to-Bottom Reversal Indicates a Potential Momentum Shift

Drake Hampton

Apr 11, 2022 10:52

On Friday, the US Dollar fell versus a basket of foreign currencies after gaining more than 100 points for the first time in over two years. It reached a high of 100.20 during the session, its highest level since May 2020.

 

Despite the fact that it formed a potentially bearish closing price reversal top, it ended the week up 1.3 percent. Throughout the week, the dollar index was mostly supported by a rise in US Treasury yields and a weaker Euro.

 

The June US Dollar Index closed at 99.753 on Friday, down 0.007 or -0.01 percent. The Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund ETF (UUP) closed at $26.68, an increase of $0.01 or 0.02%.

 

On Friday, the US Treasury 10-year yield surpassed 2.7 percent for the first time in three years, aided by the likelihood of more aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. Additionally, this week's release of the Fed's March meeting minutes revealed that "many" members were prepared to raise rates in future months in 50-basis-point increments.

 

In other news, the Euro was under pressure as the election battle between President Emmanuel Macron and far-right contender Marine Le Pen tightened in France, the Euro Zone's second-largest economy. Macron continues to lead polls.

Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is upward. However, Friday's closing price reversal top implies that momentum is about to move downward.

 

A move above 99.745 will confirm the price reversal top at the close. This could initiate a 2-3 day adjustment. A break of 100.200 will invalidate the chart pattern and suggest the resumed uptrend. The primary trend will revert to the downside upon a break of 97.730.

 

Minor values range from 97.730 to 100.200. The nearest support level is at its 50% level, or pivot, of 98.965.

 

The critical support level is the long-term Fibonacci retracement level around 98.200.

Scenario of the Bear

Persistent movement below 99.975 indicates the existence of sellers. Taking out 99.745 will confirm the price reversal top at the close. If this generates sufficient downside momentum, expect the selling to extend towards the minor pivot at 98.965.

Scenario of Bullishness

Sustaining a move over 99.975 indicates the presence of buyers. The initial objective on the upside is 100.200.

 

If 100.200 is breached, the closing price reversal top will be invalidated, signaling the resumption of the uptrend. If buying is sufficiently strong, we may see an acceleration to the upside, with the next big objective of 100.560 – 100.930.

 

Our economic calendar contains a complete listing of today's economic happenings.

Suggestion