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On August 14th, short-term U.S. Treasury bonds rose as weak July retail sales data further eroded market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in the coming months—an expectation already precarious based on employment and inflation data. The gains briefly pushed the yield on the two-year Treasury note below 4.10%, its lowest level since June 30th. The gains were limited to shorter-term bonds more sensitive to changes in the Feds policy outlook, with 10- to 30-year yields rising slightly on the day. "This is a disturbing update on the overall health of consumers," said Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets. "This will provide a reason for the Fed to pause rate hikes next month." Short-term interest rate contracts, which show expectations for the Feds rate decisions, indicated that traders are unwinding bets on a September rate hike and more than one rate hike by mid-2027. The fading of expectations for Fed tightening accelerated over the past week, beginning on August 7th with weaker-than-expected July employment data, and continued this week with dovish July consumer and producer price data.On August 14, Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren demanded that Treasury Secretary Bessett explain the Trump administrations basis for intervening in the yen, continuing the veteran senators consistent practice of scrutinizing the Trump administrations foreign exchange policies. In a letter dated August 13, Warren wrote, "To date, the administration has not provided detailed justification for this intervention, nor has it formally disclosed how much taxpayer-related funds were used to purchase yen." Following the action taken on July 31, Bessett confirmed media reports of the first joint US-Japan intervention in the foreign exchange market since 1998 to support the yen, but has not yet specified the amount of funds used.On August 14th, 2026, the Jiaxing Meteorological Observatory issued a yellow rainstorm warning signal at 21:25: Affected by strong rain clouds, the rainfall in Xincheng Town, Xiuzhou District, has exceeded 30 mm in the past hour. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue in Wangjiangjing Town and Xincheng Town of Xiuzhou District over the next 3 hours, with accumulated rainfall exceeding 50 mm. At 21:40 on August 14th, 2026, the Jiaxing Meteorological Observatory upgraded the yellow rainstorm warning signal to a red rainstorm warning signal.August 14th - U.S. consumer confidence fell for the first time in three months as households worried about deteriorating business conditions and rising inflation. According to data released Friday by the University of Michigan, the preliminary reading of the consumer confidence index for August fell to 51, down from the final reading of 55.2 in July. The median forecast from economists was 55. Consumers expect prices to rise 4.3% over the next year, a slight increase from the previous month and significantly higher than levels before the outbreak of the conflict with Iran in February. They also expect prices to rise at an annualized rate of 3.3% over the next five to ten years. After two consecutive months of improvement, consumer confidence in both the short-term and long-term economic outlook deteriorated. Consumer expectations for the labor market have changed little since the beginning of the year. The survey showed that consumers are increasingly worried about inflation, while concerns about unemployment have declined. The survey covered responses collected between July 28th and August 10th. During this period, the national average gasoline price hovered above $4 per gallon. Another report released Friday showed that U.S. retail sales in July saw their biggest drop in more than a year, as consumers reduced purchases of cars and online stores.On August 14th, according to South Korean media reports, SK Hynix significantly increased its equipment investment and R&D spending in the first half of this year to meet the growing demand for AI-specific storage. Cash expenditures for acquiring tangible assets exceeded 18 trillion won, an increase of over 70% compared to the same period last year. According to SK Hynixs semi-annual report released on the 14th, on a consolidated basis, the companys cash expenditures for acquiring tangible assets in the first half of this year were 18.3288 trillion won, a 72.7% increase compared to 10.6157 trillion won in the same period last year. R&D investment also increased significantly. Total R&D expenditures in the first half of this year were 6.0428 trillion won, a 98.4% increase compared to 3.0456 trillion won in the same period last year. Of this, 5.8163 trillion won was used for ongoing development costs. With the increasing demand for AI-specific high-bandwidth memory (HBM), server DRAM, and enterprise-grade solid-state drives (SSDs), SK Hynix is accelerating the expansion of its production facilities.

The Dollar Index's Top-to-Bottom Reversal Indicates a Potential Momentum Shift

Drake Hampton

Apr 11, 2022 10:52

On Friday, the US Dollar fell versus a basket of foreign currencies after gaining more than 100 points for the first time in over two years. It reached a high of 100.20 during the session, its highest level since May 2020.

 

Despite the fact that it formed a potentially bearish closing price reversal top, it ended the week up 1.3 percent. Throughout the week, the dollar index was mostly supported by a rise in US Treasury yields and a weaker Euro.

 

The June US Dollar Index closed at 99.753 on Friday, down 0.007 or -0.01 percent. The Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund ETF (UUP) closed at $26.68, an increase of $0.01 or 0.02%.

 

On Friday, the US Treasury 10-year yield surpassed 2.7 percent for the first time in three years, aided by the likelihood of more aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. Additionally, this week's release of the Fed's March meeting minutes revealed that "many" members were prepared to raise rates in future months in 50-basis-point increments.

 

In other news, the Euro was under pressure as the election battle between President Emmanuel Macron and far-right contender Marine Le Pen tightened in France, the Euro Zone's second-largest economy. Macron continues to lead polls.

Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the primary trend is upward. However, Friday's closing price reversal top implies that momentum is about to move downward.

 

A move above 99.745 will confirm the price reversal top at the close. This could initiate a 2-3 day adjustment. A break of 100.200 will invalidate the chart pattern and suggest the resumed uptrend. The primary trend will revert to the downside upon a break of 97.730.

 

Minor values range from 97.730 to 100.200. The nearest support level is at its 50% level, or pivot, of 98.965.

 

The critical support level is the long-term Fibonacci retracement level around 98.200.

Scenario of the Bear

Persistent movement below 99.975 indicates the existence of sellers. Taking out 99.745 will confirm the price reversal top at the close. If this generates sufficient downside momentum, expect the selling to extend towards the minor pivot at 98.965.

Scenario of Bullishness

Sustaining a move over 99.975 indicates the presence of buyers. The initial objective on the upside is 100.200.

 

If 100.200 is breached, the closing price reversal top will be invalidated, signaling the resumption of the uptrend. If buying is sufficiently strong, we may see an acceleration to the upside, with the next big objective of 100.560 – 100.930.

 

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