EUR/USD
1.14641
0.011%
Gold
4034.50
-0.636%
Oil
78.901
-1.031%
USD/JPY
162.152
-0.021%
GBP/USD
1.35287
-0.071%
GBP/JPY
219.375
-0.082%
Real-time News
1. Macroeconomic Data Released: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its June CPI report, showing an overall CPI increase of 3.5% year-on-year and a decrease of 0.4% month-on-month (dragged down by a 5.7% drop in energy prices); the core CPI, which is more closely watched by Fed officials, recorded 0% month-on-month, both lower than market expectations. Following the data release, market expectations for a Fed rate hike in July significantly diminished, with expectations for a rate hike this year falling to around one, leading to a decline in the dollar index and a sharp rebound in precious metals during the session. 2. Geopolitical and Inflation Concerns: Inflation reports are lagging indicators, reflecting only the situation over the past month. With the recent escalation of geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, international oil prices have climbed back above $80 per barrel. The market needs to be highly vigilant about the rebound in energy prices and its secondary transmission effect on inflation. 3. Diverging Core Inflation Structure: On the one hand, housing inflation rose only 0.1% month-on-month, while super core inflation (core services excluding housing) fell 0.2% month-on-month, effectively alleviating market concerns about the stickiness of service sector inflation. On the other hand, the AI investment boom brings structural concerns, with AI-related electronic component prices surging 17.4% year-on-year. Given its high weighting of 1.2% in core PCE inflation, persistently high prices will increase the stickiness of core PCE, creating new constraints on the Feds monetary policy. 4. Short-Term Pressure on Precious Metals: According to Xinhu Futures analysis, the rebound in precious metals in the latter half of the night saw a significant narrowing of gains. The core reason is that the Fed remains focused on core inflation, and the new chairman, Warsh, insists on not providing forward guidance, forcing the market to retain a certain uncertainty premium (interest rate hike expectations) in asset pricing. With policy lagging behind the economic curve, the Feds hawkish stance is expected to remain firm, and the resilience of the US economy and high interest rate expectations will exert dual pressure on precious metals. 5. Dongwu Futures View: Crude oil prices and inflation stickiness may lead to fluctuations in July data. Furthermore, Warshs recent testimony remained cautious, indicating that he would act according to data even with criticism from Trump, and that the June CPI slowdown does not signify the completion of the inflation target. The market will need to closely monitor the latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz situation, Federal Reserve policy signals, and subsequent inflation and employment data. (The above content is compiled from publicly available market data from Dongwu Futures, Xinhu Futures, etc., and is for reference only, not investment advice.)July 16th - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM.N), the worlds largest semiconductor foundry, announced on Thursday that its second-quarter net profit rose 77.4% year-on-year, a record high and exceeding market expectations, driven by surging global demand for artificial intelligence processors. TSMCs customers include Nvidia and Apple. The company reported that net profit for the April-June period reached NT$706.6 billion (approximately US$21.99 billion), significantly higher than the market expectation of NT$632.6 billion obtained by LSEG SmartEstimate. The companys second-quarter revenue was NT$1,270.381 billion, a year-on-year increase of 36%.TSMC (TSM.N) reported a 4% quarter-over-quarter decline in revenue from its smartphone business in the second quarter.TSMC (TSM.N) reported capital expenditures of US$15.7 billion in the second quarter.TSMC (TSM.N) reported revenue of NT$1.27 trillion in Q2 2026, compared to NT$933.792 billion in the same period last year.
