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On November 6, analysts at High Frequency Economics said that the Federal Reserve still has two meetings between the presidential election day and the inauguration day, but it is expected that it will be careful to avoid letting expectations of the White Houses future policies affect its interest rate decisions. The Federal Reserve can only set monetary conditions based on policies and budgets established by law or orders from the executive branch. In the fierce campaign, it cannot redefine policies based on rapidly changing promises. Even if the intentions of the winning candidate may become clearer by December, these will still need to be implemented through congressional legislation or executive orders.On November 6, Citi analyst Jabaz Matai said that at the current market odds, it is attractive to bet that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates again in December. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, but given a series of strong economic data recently, this may be the last rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year. His latest report recommends a swap transaction, in which traders agree to pay a fixed annualized interest rate of 4.404% and receive interest that floats with the Federal Reserves target rate. If the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates in December and keeps interest rates between 4.5% and 4.75% by the end of the year, this transaction will pay off.Tip: The Associated Press said Trump won Indiana and Kentucky in the election, and Harris won Vermont. The results were in line with the general media predictions.Minutes of the Bank of Japans September meeting: One member said the policy rate could reach 1% in the second half of fiscal 2025.According to the Associated Press: Harris wins Vermont.

Silver Prices Dropped Following the Fed's Less Hawkish Announcement

Daniel Rogers

May 06, 2022 10:51

Silver prices decline despite the Fed's less aggressive announcement. The dollar recovered substantially from yesterday's lows. Benchmark yields increased by 50 basis points following the rate hike.

 

Following the FOMC meeting, the ten-year treasury yield increased to 3.09 percent. Gold prices rebound following the Fed's speech, despite selling pressure. Oil prices surged when the EU announced its intention to impose an embargo on Russian oil.

 

European sanctions compensated for the uncertainty surrounding Chinese demand as a result of Covid lockdowns.

 

The FOMC raised rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday, but Fed Chair Powell made it apparent that a 75-basis-point boost at the next meeting was improbable. The dollar weakened as a result of this development, while bond yields extended their advances.

 

Powell, though, indicated that the primary objective is to contain inflation, providing upward momentum for the dollar and rates.

 

Initial unemployment claims increased to 200,000 from 181,000 in the previous week. In the first quarter, productivity declined by 7.5 percent. However, a tightening labor market will maintain a high level of inflation.

Technical Evaluation

Despite the Fed's less aggressive monetary strategy, silver prices plummeted below the $23.00 threshold. Despite the fact that ruling out a 75-basis-point raise reduced precious metals' downside risk, the Fed's goal of containing inflation weighs on silver prices.

 

Sustaining support is located near the February 3rd low of $22.0. Resistance is located near the 23.1 10-day moving average. Short-term momentum is bearish, as the fast stochastic has crossed below the zero line, signaling a sell signal.

 

The medium-term momentum has shifted to the downside, as evidenced by the histogram's negative correlation with the MACD (moving average convergence divergence). The MACD histogram's trajectory is negative, indicating a downward trend in price movement.

 

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