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On April 3, CICC pointed out that Trump announced "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2, which exceeded market expectations. Reciprocal tariffs use a combination of "carpet-style" tariffs and "one country, one tariff rate", covering more than 60 major economies. Calculations show that if these tariffs are fully implemented, the effective tariff rate of the United States may rise sharply by 22.7 percentage points from 2.4% in 2024 to 25.1%, which will exceed the tariff level after the implementation of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in 1930. CICC believes that reciprocal tariffs may increase uncertainty and market concerns and aggravate the risk of "stagflation" in the US economy. Calculations show that tariffs may push up US PCE inflation by 1.9 percentage points and reduce real GDP growth by 1.3 percentage points, although they may also bring in more than $700 billion in fiscal revenue. Faced with the risk of "stagflation", the Federal Reserve can only choose to wait and see, and it may be difficult to cut interest rates in the short term. This will further increase the risk of economic downturn and increase the pressure on the market to adjust downward.RBA Financial Stability Assessment Report: US tariffs may have a "chilling effect" on investment and spending.RBA Financial Stability Assessment Report: Australian banks are well capitalized and can absorb large loan losses. It is important that bank lending standards remain sound. Budget pressures are prevalent among Australian households, but are expected to ease. There are concerns that low interest rates will encourage households to over-indebtedness.RBA Financial Stability Assessment: The Australian financial system is in a good position to weather a severe global recession. Most households are in good financial shape and banks have limited the risk of widespread disruption.Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Assessment Report: Risk aversion will increase financing costs and cause liquidity tightness.

Silver Price Prediction: Silver Markets Recover

Alina Haynes

Jun 24, 2022 15:12

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The silver market began Thursday's trading session with a sharp decline, reaching $21 per ounce. Considering that the $21 level has been significant on several occasions, I believe it is just a matter of time until volatility returns to this market. The $22 level above is a place of resistance; thus, if we do rebound, you must pay special attention.

 

The 50 Day EMA is currently at $22.39 and falling. This implies that a certain level of dynamic resistance should enter the picture. I believe that any balance will be sold because, obviously, there are several concerns over industrial demand and the rising of the US currency. Long-term, all of these factors work against silver, but inflation tends to benefit it. In such a circumstance, the only predictable response is likely to be a great deal of volatility, but that does not distinguish silver from other markets.

 

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Breaking below the $21 level enables a decline to the $20.50 level, and potentially even the $20 level. A breach of the $20 level would be extremely negative for silver, opening the door to the $18 level. If we were to rebound and break through the 50 Day EMA, it is conceivable that we may see an attempt to reach the $23 level, but I believe it would require much work.


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