EUR/USD
1.16184
-0.126%
Gold
4364.40
-0.844%
Oil
96.386
2.308%
USD/JPY
153.932
0.250%
GBP/USD
1.35188
-0.201%
GBP/JPY
208.102
0.067%
Real-time News
On September 10th, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde emphasized the uncertainty of the outlook at her post-policy press conference. Following Thursdays hawkish statement, financial markets are now almost evenly divided on whether the ECB will raise interest rates again next month. The ECB raised rates by 25 basis points to 2.5% on Thursday, in line with expectations. However, according to LSEG data, the probability of a rate hike on October 29th is currently 49%; if not, the probability of a hike before December 17th is 89%, and the probability of the deposit rate reaching 3% before Christmas is 36%. ECB staff raised their inflation forecasts for 2027 and 2028, citing inflationary pressures from the Middle East conflict, and also raised their GDP growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027, citing "the eurozone economys resilience exceeding expectations." The ECB stated that the outlook remains highly uncertain, a point Lagarde attempted to convey at her post-policy press conference. She said the uncertainty is so great that the situation could change overnight—for example, with rising diesel prices. "We simply cannot predict what will happen next," Lagarde said.U.S. existing home sales totaled 3.98 million units annualized in August, in line with expectations and down from 4.06 million units in the previous month.US existing home sales fell 2% month-over-month in August, compared with a previous reading of -1.70%.U.S. wholesale sales rose 0.8% month-on-month in July, with the previous figure revised from -3.00% to -2.9%.Gold prices fell more than 1% on Thursday as strong U.S. inflation data and rising oil prices increased market bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike next week. Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, said the producer price index data tells us that underlying inflation in the U.S. economy is picking up, partly due to rising energy costs. U.S. producer price increases in August were largely in line with expectations, but energy prices rebounded. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now expect a 70% probability of a rate hike next week, up from 62% before the data release. However, most economists surveyed by Reuters expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at its September 15-16 meeting and for the remainder of the year. A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, while rising yields on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds further pressured gold prices. Rodda added that higher bond yields reflect more persistent and higher inflationary pressures from rising oil prices, which also contributed to the decline in gold prices. Rising bond yields typically increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, thus putting downward pressure on gold.
