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A Reuters poll found that 58% of economists surveyed believed the addition of two dovish scholars to the Bank of Japan would not make raising interest rates more difficult.A Reuters poll shows the median forecast indicates the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates to 1.25% in the first quarter of 2027 and to 1.50% in the first quarter of 2028.A Reuters poll of 64 economists indicated that the Bank of Japan will keep its benchmark interest rate at 0.75% on March 19.A Reuters poll found that 60% of economists surveyed expect the Bank of Japan to raise its benchmark interest rate to 1.00% by the end of June (up from 58% in the February poll).March 11th - Amidst the uncertainty stemming from the ongoing conflict with Iran, market expectations for a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan have weakened. Against this backdrop, demand for Japanese five-year government bonds was stronger than the 12-month average. The bid-to-cover ratio for this auction was 3.69, higher than the previous auctions 3.10 and the 12-month average of 3.44. Following the auction, Japanese bond futures narrowed their losses. Soaring oil prices coupled with a depreciating yen have increased the risk of Japan sliding into stagflation, prompting the government to increase fiscal spending and complicating the central banks tightening measures. The five-year yield, sensitive to monetary policy expectations, is currently trading around 1.64%. Strong demand at last weeks 30-year government bond auction indicates that investor demand remains robust despite the war factor. Next weeks 20-year government bond issuance will also be closely watched as investors assess how Middle East tensions might affect Prime Minister Sanae Takaichis fiscal agenda.

Price Prediction for Silver - Breakout Attempt Fails

Daniel Rogers

Jun 06, 2022 15:28

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The price of silver attempted to break out, but encountered selling resistance. The decline in gold prices weighed on the broader precious metals market. Stronger-than-anticipated employment figures boosted the dollar. Since precious metals are valued in dollars, a stronger dollar is often unfavorable to silver.

 

Following stronger-than-expected employment figures, benchmark yields increased. The positive employment data contradicted Thursday's ADP private payroll estimate, which was worse than anticipated.

 

The nonfarm payrolls increased by 390K while the unemployment rate increased to 3.6%. Approximately 328K jobs were predicted to be added to the labour market. The unemployment rate was anticipated to fall to 3.5 percent. The average hourly wage has grown by 0.3%. It was anticipated that average hourly salaries would increase by 0.4%. This situation may indicate a moderation in wage inflation. The year-over-year rise in salaries was 5.2%.

Technical Evaluation

The price of silver sought to climb higher but was unable to do so. Near the 10-day moving average of 21.99 is viewed as support. At the 50-day moving average of 23.26, there is observed to be resistance.

 

The 50-day moving average continues below the 200-day moving average, representing a headwind for XAG/USD and indicating negative trend. Silver will likely reach the level of 20.4.

 

The medium-term momentum turns positive when the histogram and MACD both show positive values (moving average convergence divergence). The MACD histogram is moving in negative area, indicating a downward trend in price movement.


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