EUR/USD
1.16146
0.059%
Gold
4601.69
-0.311%
Oil
59.724
1.015%
USD/JPY
158.087
-0.332%
GBP/USD
1.34062
0.180%
GBP/JPY
211.940
-0.141%
Real-time News
January 16th - Pansen Macro analyst Claus Vistesen stated that January inflation data from Germany and the Eurozone may increase market bets on a European Central Bank rate cut. Data released Friday showed that Germanys annual inflation rate fell to 1.8% in December from 2.3% in November, as energy prices declined due to a one-off tariff reduction, laying the foundation for continued inflation declines into 2026. Core inflation is also expected to fall, although food and alcohol inflation are expected to rebound due to last years benchmark effect. Pansen Macro expects Germanys January inflation rate to fall to 1.5%.On January 16th, in response to the current economic and financial situation, the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) opened its policy toolbox, announcing eight structural monetary policy measures and revealing that there is still "some room" for reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts this year. The market is paying close attention to the subsequent policy direction. Regarding the timing of these policies, Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, believes that the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is reduced due to concerns about preventing further overheating of asset prices such as the stock market. Currently, the PBOC has many tools available for monetary policy, and its outright reverse repurchase operations have proven effective, all of which reduce the probability of a short-term RRR cut. The macro research team at Orient Securities believes that the PBOC is committed to building a scientific and sound monetary policy system and will adhere to avoiding excessive monetary easing to prevent future risks such as high inflation and high debt. The current focus of monetary policy is to effectively utilize various structural monetary policy tools, targeting specific areas precisely to continuously promote the transformation of old and new growth drivers. Therefore, the possibility of a significant interest rate cut or large-scale quantitative easing this year can be largely ruled out.The U.S. military is deploying additional defensive and offensive capabilities to the Middle East in response to a potential strike against Iran by President Trump.On January 16th, Morgan Stanley expressed optimism about the share price of Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturer ASML. Analysts at the bank stated that in the most optimistic scenario, as chipmakers increase spending to meet soaring demand from artificial intelligence, the stock could rise by 70%, potentially reaching €2,000. Morgan Stanleys bullish outlook on ASML is further fueled by TSMCs earnings report demonstrating that the AI spending boom has not slowed. ASMLs share price has already risen 25% year-to-date by 2026, and its market capitalization surpassed $500 billion this week, making it the third European company to reach this milestone.January 16th - According to AXIOS, citing an Israeli source and another informed source, Mossad Director General Barnea arrived in the United States on Friday morning for talks on the situation in Iran. Barneas trip is part of consultations between the US and Israel regarding the Iranian protests and potential US military action. It is understood that Barnea is expected to meet with US Middle East envoy Witkov in Miami. It is unclear whether Barnea will travel to Mar-a-Lago to meet with US President Trump over the weekend. US officials have stated that military action remains an option if Iran resumes its killings of protesters. Israeli officials believe that although action may be delayed, the possibility of a US military strike in the coming days remains. According to US sources, the US military is deploying more defensive and offensive capabilities to the region to facilitate rapid action should Trump order a strike.
