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On July 31, three Federal Reserve policymakers stated that the dissenting votes for a rate hike this week stemmed from persistent inflationary pressures, indicating increasing internal pressure on Fed Chair Warsh to act. In a statement released Friday morning, Hamack and Kashkari expressed concern that while the current price increases may stem from short-term factors such as President Trumps tariff policies and the Iran war, the inflation situation now warrants Fed action. Logan joined in, stating that even if inflation cools somewhat, it is unlikely to fall completely back to the Feds 2% target level without a rate hike; in the absence of any policy constraints, inflation could continue to rise above the target level until an unexpected shock occurs. Kashkari indicated that if inflation remains stubborn, he might support a series of rate hikes, rather than just one, to prevent further entrenching of inflation. He said, "A series of small policy adjustments may be better than waiting for the situation to develop and ultimately having to take stronger action." Hamack stated that if the Fed does not tighten policy, the pace of price increases could continue to accelerate. She stated, "Inflation has been stubbornly above 2% for more than five years, and I am not confident that it will fall back to our target level on its own."Russian Defense Ministry: Russian forces struck a ship delivering supplies to Ukrainian troops in the Black Sea.According to the Iranian news agency IRNA: The foreign ministers of Iran and the United Kingdom spoke by phone to discuss regional developments.July 31 - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index nearly erased its intraday gains, after rising as much as 5%. SanDisk (SNDK.O) fell about 7%, Micron Technology (MU.O) fell more than 4%, and SK Hynix (SKHY.O) fell more than 2%. The Nasdaq Composite Index is currently down about 0.2%.On July 31, Federal Reserve Chairman Logan stated that inflation risks are tilted to the upside, and the robust job market is strengthening slightly. Currently, monetary policy is not suppressing the economy, and inflation is not moving towards the 2% target. He believes the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cannot rely on unexpected shocks to achieve its goals. He indicated a preference for raising interest rates by 25 basis points to better balance the economic outlook and risks. The Feds recent moderate action will reduce the likelihood of needing more forceful action in the future. Without any policy constraints, inflation could persist above target until an unexpected shock occurs.

Oil prices decline due to demand concerns; a Fed rate hike looms

Aria Thomas

Sep 21, 2022 10:28

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Wednesday oil prices declined as traders anticipated that a Federal Reserve interest rate hike would dampen oil consumption. Indications of a likely increase in U.S. gasoline stockpiles were also negative.


By 20:37 ET, Brent oil futures declined 0.6% to $90.37 per barrel and WTI futures declined 0.2% to $83.73 per barrel (00:37 GMT). Tuesday, both contracts dropped more than 1 percent.


On Wednesday, the Fed is poised to increase interest rates by at least 75 basis points. To combat inflation, the bank will hike interest rates for the eighth time this year.


The action will tighten monetary conditions in the United States, weighing on economic expansion and oil demand. High inflation and rising interest rates have a negative impact on the nation's oil consumption.


Dollar rose prior to the hike. A stronger dollar increases the cost of oil imports, hence decreasing global crude demand. A stronger dollar reduces crude demand in India and Indonesia.


The API statistics released on Tuesday suggested weak oil demand from U.S. consumers. Last week, the API reported that U.S. gasoline inventories increased by 3.2 million barrels.


Despite lowering gas prices, the estimate and data indicating a decline in U.S. vehicle traffic showed lackluster fuel consumption in the country.


Today's API statistics are a preview of the official EIA data. It is anticipated that gasoline inventories decreased by 0.4 million barrels last week.


Oil prices have declined significantly from their peaks during the Russia-Ukraine war due to expectations of a decline in demand. The continued depletion of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has also contributed to price declines.


A harsh European winter could increase this year's heating oil use. As a result of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, the supply should tighten, causing prices to rise.