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On April 3, Kimberly Clausing, a former Biden administration official and nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, called Trumps tariff announcement on Wednesday "very stubborn and much worse than I expected." "I expected things to be bad, but I didnt expect this level of self-harm. Its shocking that anyone thought this was a good idea. Id be shocked if we can get through this without a recession and Trump doesnt have to reverse his policies."On April 3, some economists worry that if Trump does not quickly cancel the latest round of tariffs, it may push the US economy into a recession. "If the US government implements these higher tariffs without major exemptions, it will be difficult for the economy to digest this. A recession seems more likely." said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moodys Analytics. Zandi said, "In many ways, the tariffs announced by Trump are even worse than the worst case scenario he envisioned. If they stick to it, I will buckle up and prepare for the impact." Zandi added that on a static basis, tariffs account for nearly 2% of GDP (not considering the impact of tariffs on the economy and taxes), which makes this round of tariffs the largest tax increase since the tax increase used to finance the war during World War II.German Automobile Industry Association VDA: The EU must now speed up and make up its mind on the issue of free trade agreement.On April 3, the Reserve Bank of Australias latest report for the banking industry warned that continued uncertainty in US trade policy "could have a chilling effect on business investment and household spending decisions, and pose a significant headwind to the outlook for global economic activity and inflation." The Reserve Bank of Australia said there was also considerable uncertainty about the impact of possible changes in fiscal, regulatory and other government policies on global growth and inflation.The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong opened on April 3 (Thursday) down 564.32 points, or 2.43%, to 22,638.21 points; the Hang Seng Technology Index opened on April 3 (Thursday) down 168.53 points, or 3.11%, to 5,257.91 points; the CSI 300 Index opened on April 3 (Thursday) down 219.05 points, or 2.57%, to 8,312.46 points; the H-share Index opened on April 3 (Thursday) down 61.24 points, or 1.59%, to 3,800.76 points.

Gold Price Prediction: The XAU/USD pair aims to extend its climb above $1,920 as the Federal Reserve softens its policy tightening tempo

Alina Haynes

Jan 16, 2023 10:50

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In the early Asian session on Monday, the gold price (XAU/USD) moved sideways following a mammoth rally to the important resistance of $1,920.00. After breaching the $1,900 round-level barrier for the first time in eight months, the precious metal attracted considerable buying interest. In addition, a decline in the US Dollar Index (DXY) boosted the Gold price.

 

The risk profile remains optimistic as the S&P500 has posted a four-day winning run and the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to reduce the pace of its current policy tightening in response to a decrease in December's inflation data. Despite the risk appetite trend, the yield on US Treasury bonds has increased to 3.50 percent and remains strong. Despite Friday's rise in U.S. Consumer Confidence numbers, the US Dollar Index stayed below 101.80.

 

The University of Michigan announced a Consumer Confidence reading of 64,6 as opposed to the anticipated 60.5. The street is aware that retail demand has slowed, thus the factor that has encouraged customers is the decrease in inflation caused by decreased gasoline costs.

 

Wells Fargo analysts observe that the respite on the inflation front and wage growth are boosting sentiment, but they caution that the still-sour buying conditions suggest the positive sentiments in this report may not transfer into a spending spree.

 

At $1,897.42, the gold price has surpassed the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (set from March 8's high of $2,070.54 to September 28's low of $1,614.85) Upward-sloping 10- and 20-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $1,881.49 and $1,856.40, respectively, contribute to the upward filters.