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The Dallas Fed and the New York Fed will launch a pilot survey of the private credit market by the end of the third quarter of 2026.The SC crude oil futures contract fell by 2.00% during the day, currently trading at 502.70 yuan per barrel.1. EIA report: U.S. crude oil exports increased by 218,000 barrels per day to 3.685 million barrels per day in the week ending July 31. Commercial crude oil inventories, excluding strategic reserves, increased by 2.479 million barrels to 407 million barrels, a rise of 0.61%. 2. According to Reuters, the U.S. Treasury Department released details on its website on Wednesday that the U.S. has lifted counterterrorism sanctions on two aircraft and three airlines linked to Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. 3. According to statistics from the Silicon Industry Association, domestic polysilicon production in July was 105,100 tons, while silicon wafer production was 55.26 GW. Inventories increased by 9,600 tons (including imports and exports) in July. As of the end of July, polysilicon industry inventories were approximately 522,000 tons. 4. Guillermo Wade, head of the Argentine Port Industry Chamber of Commerce, said on Wednesday that Argentine grain ports had resumed normal operations after a pilots strike brought the countrys foreign trade to a standstill for about 24 hours. 5. According to the Associated Press, two regional officials told the AP on Wednesday that negotiators from Iran and Oman have reached an agreement on a draft contract, which is now awaiting final approval from Irans Supreme Leader. 6. Data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows that private exporters reported selling 120,000 tons of corn to Mexico. Of this, 30,000 tons will be delivered in the 2026/2027 marketing year, and 90,000 tons will be delivered in the 2027/2028 marketing year. 7. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, a 2026 FOMC voting member, said in an interview with CNBC on Wednesday that the Fed should now "start gradually raising" interest rates to reduce inflation and avoid the need for larger rate hikes in the future. 8. ADP report: Private employers added 44,000 jobs in July. While hiring was relatively weak across industries in July, wages sent a clear signal. Wage growth for job changers accelerated in July.U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessant: One of the highlights of Warshs tenure at the Federal Reserve was watching those stenographers posing as journalists, such as Nick Timiraos of The Wall Street Journal (formerly known as the "Federal Reserve mouthpiece"), reduced to reporting behind-the-scenes gossip about the Fed, because they couldnt produce any real economic or monetary policy analysis without someone feeding them information.Federal Reserves Kashkari: The Fed will see a lot of data ahead of its September meeting.

Gold Price Forecast: The XAU/USD pair's decline is moderating as the price recovers from recent lows

Daniel Rogers

Aug 22, 2022 14:41

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As analysts at TD Securities explained, Chair Powell's remarks will likely be "a key avenue for the Fed to push back against the notable easing in financial conditions sparked by his last remarks, which has seen markets price in rate cuts immediately following the rate hiking cycle and is likely inconsistent with the Fed's inflation mandate." As market expectations for rate reduction diminish, speculative demand for precious metals should diminish more.

 

A chorus of Fed speakers has addressed us in the lead-up to the event. In an interview with CNN, Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, stated that it was far too early to declare victory on inflation and that a 50 basis point or 75 basis point increase would be reasonable.

 

Daly's bluster stirred up the dust and pushed the US dollar up 0.12% on the day to 106.78; since then, it has skyrocketed to 108.285 in Tokyo's opening hour. US bond yields continue to rise, following Europe's selloff, and the yield curve steepened. Yields on 2-year government bonds increased from 3.23% to 3.24% thru 3.29%, while yields on 10-year government bonds increased from 2.90% to 2.97%. The rising interest rates are particularly bad news for gold investors, as the yellow metal is extremely sensitive to rising US interest rates, which increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

 

Fed funds futures traders assign a likelihood of 55% that the Fed will raise rates by 50 basis points in September and a probability of 45% that rates will be raised by 75 basis points. According to calculations by Reuters and data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission published on Friday, speculators' net long positioning on the US dollar continues to expand, while net short positions on the euro increase. The value of the net long dollar position increased to $13.37 billion during the week ending August 16, according to statistics from the CFTC. Since four weeks ago, net long dollar positions have climbed for the first time.

 

Core PCE will be significant in data preceding the Jackson Hole Symposium. According to analysts at TD Securities, prices likely slowed significantly in July and at an even slower rate than the core CPI (0.1% vs. 0.3%).

 

"Shelter weights continue to be a major contributor to this disparity. The YoY rate likely decreased to 4.6% from 4.8% in June, indicating that the series has reached its apex. Separately, personal expenditure likely fell to a still robust 0.6% MoM pace after seeing an even greater 1.0% MoM increase in June.


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