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On June 11, following Trumps remarks about possible further attacks on Iran, Ibrahim Aziz, head of the Iranian Parliaments National Security Committee, posted a strong statement on social media. He stated, "We are not afraid to fight the losers. American casualties are already far higher than Trump has admitted, and will continue to rise. This time, the war will not be confined to this region. We will wait and see!"On June 11, the U.S. Department of Energy announced on Wednesday that the United States is seeking to lend up to 40 million barrels of its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to energy companies to help lower fuel prices. This plan is part of a previous agreement to release 172 million barrels of SPR. To date, the U.S. has lent approximately 133 million barrels of crude oil under that agreement. In March of this year, following the U.S. and Israels war against Iran on February 28, the U.S. reached an agreement with approximately 30 member countries of the International Energy Agency to release approximately 400 million barrels of strategic reserves to help stabilize the international oil market. Currently, U.S. SPR inventories stand at 349.2 million barrels, the lowest level since August 2023. Companies that borrow crude oil must return an equivalent amount of crude oil and pay a premium of up to 24% in the form of additional crude oil.The Nasdaq fell as much as 2% in late trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.6%, and the S&P 500 fell 1.5%.On June 11, Colombian President Petro Petro responded to reports of his "temporary suspension" on June 10, stating that he had not been suspended and that only a member of Congress had made the request to the House Inquiry and Indictment Committee. Speaking to the media during a UN Security Council meeting in New York, Petro emphasized, "You are not dealing with a suspended president." He stressed that the Inquiry and Indictment Committee has no power to suspend the president of the republic, and that presidential suspension should be decided by the Senate. Petro believes the current action violates Colombian law and could trigger legal proceedings in the Supreme Court. Petro also accused the congressman who initiated the decision, claiming he had made numerous demands on the government and implying the actions constituted "extortion."Sources say the White House meeting with defense companies was similar to the one in March, with participating companies including Lockheed Martin (LMT.N), Raytheon Technologies (RTX.N), Boeing (BA.N), and L3Harris.

Gold Price Forecast: The XAU/USD pair's decline is moderating as the price recovers from recent lows

Daniel Rogers

Aug 22, 2022 14:41

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As analysts at TD Securities explained, Chair Powell's remarks will likely be "a key avenue for the Fed to push back against the notable easing in financial conditions sparked by his last remarks, which has seen markets price in rate cuts immediately following the rate hiking cycle and is likely inconsistent with the Fed's inflation mandate." As market expectations for rate reduction diminish, speculative demand for precious metals should diminish more.

 

A chorus of Fed speakers has addressed us in the lead-up to the event. In an interview with CNN, Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, stated that it was far too early to declare victory on inflation and that a 50 basis point or 75 basis point increase would be reasonable.

 

Daly's bluster stirred up the dust and pushed the US dollar up 0.12% on the day to 106.78; since then, it has skyrocketed to 108.285 in Tokyo's opening hour. US bond yields continue to rise, following Europe's selloff, and the yield curve steepened. Yields on 2-year government bonds increased from 3.23% to 3.24% thru 3.29%, while yields on 10-year government bonds increased from 2.90% to 2.97%. The rising interest rates are particularly bad news for gold investors, as the yellow metal is extremely sensitive to rising US interest rates, which increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

 

Fed funds futures traders assign a likelihood of 55% that the Fed will raise rates by 50 basis points in September and a probability of 45% that rates will be raised by 75 basis points. According to calculations by Reuters and data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission published on Friday, speculators' net long positioning on the US dollar continues to expand, while net short positions on the euro increase. The value of the net long dollar position increased to $13.37 billion during the week ending August 16, according to statistics from the CFTC. Since four weeks ago, net long dollar positions have climbed for the first time.

 

Core PCE will be significant in data preceding the Jackson Hole Symposium. According to analysts at TD Securities, prices likely slowed significantly in July and at an even slower rate than the core CPI (0.1% vs. 0.3%).

 

"Shelter weights continue to be a major contributor to this disparity. The YoY rate likely decreased to 4.6% from 4.8% in June, indicating that the series has reached its apex. Separately, personal expenditure likely fell to a still robust 0.6% MoM pace after seeing an even greater 1.0% MoM increase in June.


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