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On June 8, the State Post Bureau held a Party Leadership Group meeting. The meeting emphasized the importance of ensuring the safety and stability of the express delivery industry, urging a balanced approach between development and security, and integrating safety and stability requirements throughout the entire process of express delivery market supervision and safety oversight. The meeting stressed focusing on key areas, comprehensively investigating and resolving various risks, thoroughly addressing "involutionary" competition, and guiding enterprises to standardize their internal performance evaluation mechanisms. It also emphasized strengthening the responsibilities of all parties, urging headquarters to standardize operations and management, and resolving conflicts and disputes at their source. Furthermore, the meeting called for continuously strengthening industry operation monitoring and command and dispatch, improving the closed-loop mechanism for risk prevention and control across the entire chain, promoting the resolution of specific problems, and creating a standardized, orderly, stable, and healthy industry development ecosystem.June 8th - Market sources indicate that Russia plans to increase refinery operating rates in June, thus reducing crude oil exports, given the looming threat of fuel shortages. Preliminary data from these sources suggests that crude oil loadings at the western Russian ports of Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiysk may fall from 2.5 million barrels per day in May to 1.7 million barrels per day in June. The sources suggest this decline is partly due to lower crude oil production levels. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak previously stated that Russian oil production has declined since the beginning of the year, attributing it to unscheduled refinery maintenance. The sources say that with the completion of maintenance, Russian refineries will be able to increase processing volumes amid seasonal fuel demand growth and supply shortages reported in some regions; however, lower production means additional feedstock must be diverted from exports for processing. They estimate that Russia will seek to increase crude oil processing by 250,000 to 400,000 barrels per day in June, while restoring crude oil production will take a considerable amount of time.According to Irans Tasnim News Agency, all flights to Iran have been cancelled until further notice.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has instructed the military to halt preparations for a new attack on Iran.Oppenheimer raised its price target for Oracle (ORCL.N) from $235 to $275.

Gold Price Forecast: The XAU/USD pair's decline is moderating as the price recovers from recent lows

Daniel Rogers

Aug 22, 2022 14:41

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As analysts at TD Securities explained, Chair Powell's remarks will likely be "a key avenue for the Fed to push back against the notable easing in financial conditions sparked by his last remarks, which has seen markets price in rate cuts immediately following the rate hiking cycle and is likely inconsistent with the Fed's inflation mandate." As market expectations for rate reduction diminish, speculative demand for precious metals should diminish more.

 

A chorus of Fed speakers has addressed us in the lead-up to the event. In an interview with CNN, Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, stated that it was far too early to declare victory on inflation and that a 50 basis point or 75 basis point increase would be reasonable.

 

Daly's bluster stirred up the dust and pushed the US dollar up 0.12% on the day to 106.78; since then, it has skyrocketed to 108.285 in Tokyo's opening hour. US bond yields continue to rise, following Europe's selloff, and the yield curve steepened. Yields on 2-year government bonds increased from 3.23% to 3.24% thru 3.29%, while yields on 10-year government bonds increased from 2.90% to 2.97%. The rising interest rates are particularly bad news for gold investors, as the yellow metal is extremely sensitive to rising US interest rates, which increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

 

Fed funds futures traders assign a likelihood of 55% that the Fed will raise rates by 50 basis points in September and a probability of 45% that rates will be raised by 75 basis points. According to calculations by Reuters and data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission published on Friday, speculators' net long positioning on the US dollar continues to expand, while net short positions on the euro increase. The value of the net long dollar position increased to $13.37 billion during the week ending August 16, according to statistics from the CFTC. Since four weeks ago, net long dollar positions have climbed for the first time.

 

Core PCE will be significant in data preceding the Jackson Hole Symposium. According to analysts at TD Securities, prices likely slowed significantly in July and at an even slower rate than the core CPI (0.1% vs. 0.3%).

 

"Shelter weights continue to be a major contributor to this disparity. The YoY rate likely decreased to 4.6% from 4.8% in June, indicating that the series has reached its apex. Separately, personal expenditure likely fell to a still robust 0.6% MoM pace after seeing an even greater 1.0% MoM increase in June.


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