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JPMorgan Chase: The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2026, compared with previous forecasts that interest rates would remain unchanged this year.July 30th - On Thursday, demand at the auction of Japanese two-year government bonds was lower than the 12-month average, as the market widely anticipated a tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan. The subscription multiple was 3.63, compared to 4.82 at the previous auction, and the 12-month average is 3.81. Another sign of weak investor interest was the tail spread (the difference between the average bid and the minimum acceptable bid) at 0.007, compared to 0.005 last month. Recently, yields on short-term Japanese government bonds, which are more sensitive to monetary policy, have risen due to increased oil prices caused by tensions in the Middle East and heightened concerns about fuel inflation. The two-year yield has now risen to 1.47%, close to the high of 1.52% reached earlier this month. This further increases pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates.On July 30th, according to foreign media reports, Malaysian palm oil futures fell slightly on Thursday, marking their third decline in four trading days, mainly dragged down by weaker prices of competing edible oils and crude oil. The benchmark October palm oil contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 16 ringgit, or 0.34%, to 4,648 ringgit per tonne (approximately US$1,137.82) in early trading. Despite escalating tensions in the Middle East and the US-Iran conflict spreading beyond major fronts, oil tankers continued to leave the region, causing oil prices to give back some of their gains. Weaker crude oil futures reduced the attractiveness of palm oil as a biodiesel feedstock. The ringgit strengthened slightly by 0.07% against the US dollar, making it slightly more expensive for buyers holding foreign currency to purchase the commodity. According to documents from the Indonesian Ministry of Energy, the country has increased its 2026 biodiesel quota using palm oil as a feedstock to 16.75 million kiloliters to meet the increased demand from the B50 biodiesel blending policy launched earlier this month.Shunichi Suzuki, Secretary-General of the Democratic Party of Japan: The goal is to submit a tax reduction bill during the autumn Diet session.The bid-to-cover ratio for Japans 2-year government bonds was 3.63, lower than the 4.82 achieved in the previous issuance in June.

Gold Price Forecast: The XAU/USD pair's decline is moderating as the price recovers from recent lows

Daniel Rogers

Aug 22, 2022 14:41

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As analysts at TD Securities explained, Chair Powell's remarks will likely be "a key avenue for the Fed to push back against the notable easing in financial conditions sparked by his last remarks, which has seen markets price in rate cuts immediately following the rate hiking cycle and is likely inconsistent with the Fed's inflation mandate." As market expectations for rate reduction diminish, speculative demand for precious metals should diminish more.

 

A chorus of Fed speakers has addressed us in the lead-up to the event. In an interview with CNN, Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, stated that it was far too early to declare victory on inflation and that a 50 basis point or 75 basis point increase would be reasonable.

 

Daly's bluster stirred up the dust and pushed the US dollar up 0.12% on the day to 106.78; since then, it has skyrocketed to 108.285 in Tokyo's opening hour. US bond yields continue to rise, following Europe's selloff, and the yield curve steepened. Yields on 2-year government bonds increased from 3.23% to 3.24% thru 3.29%, while yields on 10-year government bonds increased from 2.90% to 2.97%. The rising interest rates are particularly bad news for gold investors, as the yellow metal is extremely sensitive to rising US interest rates, which increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

 

Fed funds futures traders assign a likelihood of 55% that the Fed will raise rates by 50 basis points in September and a probability of 45% that rates will be raised by 75 basis points. According to calculations by Reuters and data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission published on Friday, speculators' net long positioning on the US dollar continues to expand, while net short positions on the euro increase. The value of the net long dollar position increased to $13.37 billion during the week ending August 16, according to statistics from the CFTC. Since four weeks ago, net long dollar positions have climbed for the first time.

 

Core PCE will be significant in data preceding the Jackson Hole Symposium. According to analysts at TD Securities, prices likely slowed significantly in July and at an even slower rate than the core CPI (0.1% vs. 0.3%).

 

"Shelter weights continue to be a major contributor to this disparity. The YoY rate likely decreased to 4.6% from 4.8% in June, indicating that the series has reached its apex. Separately, personal expenditure likely fell to a still robust 0.6% MoM pace after seeing an even greater 1.0% MoM increase in June.


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