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On February 26, Ukraines state oil and gas company Naftogaz said on Tuesday that Norway will provide financing for Ukraine to purchase its natural gas. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has hit Ukraines energy system hard, leading to an increase in Ukraines natural gas imports. The aid is part of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Developments 380 million euro aid program to strengthen Ukraines energy security.On February 26, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will formally evaluate the level of cooperation or self-reporting of companies or individuals accused of misconduct before imposing fines, which is the latest signal that the derivatives regulator has changed its law enforcement approach. CFTC Acting Chairman Caroline Pham said the new advisory opinion is intended to create "meaningful incentives" for companies to proactively raise issues and resolve cases more quickly with reasonable penalties. Pham said the measure also shows that the agency is complying with an executive order of the Trump administration to revoke regulations that the White House considers to be too "cumbersome."Trump: Ukraine will receive massive support, including $350 billion and military equipment to keep fighting.Conflict situation: 1. Russian Defense Ministry: Russian air defense forces destroyed 19 Ukrainian drones last night. 2. Air raid alerts were issued throughout Ukraine, and the Air Force warned that Russia would launch a missile attack. 3. The Ukrainian Air Force shot down 6 missiles and 133 drones launched by Russia at night. Peace talks: 1. People familiar with the matter revealed that the UK is discussing convening European leaders for further talks on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which may be held as early as Sunday. 2. Ukraine agreed to the US mineral agreement after the United States gave up its most stringent demands. The Ukrainian cabinet is expected to recommend signing a key mineral deal with the United States on Wednesday. 3. The Kremlin: (When asked about the UN vote on Ukraine on Monday) The US position is more balanced, and Europes position on Ukraine may become more balanced due to engagement with the United States. 4. Trump: Ukraine will need some form of peacekeeping force. The future rare earth metal agreement signed with Ukraine may be valued at $1 trillion. 5. Trump: Sanctions on Russia will be lifted at some point. Hope to reach an agreement to gain access to Russias rare earth resources. 6. Source: Ukrainian President Zelensky plans to travel to Washington on Friday to meet with US President Trump. Others: 1. Polish Armed Forces: After Russia launched an attack on Ukraine, Poland urgently dispatched military aircraft to ensure the safety of its airspace. 2. The Ukrainian Parliament supports Zelenskys extension of his term, and Musk calls for elections. 3. British Prime Minister Starmer: Britains support for Ukraine has risen to a record level. 4. Peskov: Russia has rich rare earth reserves, and Russia and the United States have broad room for cooperation in this field.On February 26, "The amount of MLF due in February was 500 billion yuan, and 300 billion yuan was renewed on February 25, which is equivalent to a 200 billion yuan reduction in MLF in February." Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Orient Securities, said that considering that the central bank had carried out a 1.7 trillion yuan buy-out reverse repurchase operation in January, it was equivalent to releasing large-scale medium-term liquidity in advance to cope with the large amount of MLF due in February. This also means that although the MLF has continued to shrink since October 2024, the central bank has not reduced its medium-term liquidity injection. Experts believe that although the central bank has recently suspended the purchase of treasury bonds in the secondary market, it is expected to maintain medium-term market liquidity at a relatively reasonable level through large-scale buy-out reverse repurchases, so as to support banks to increase credit supply at the beginning of the year, support government bond issuance, and stabilize market expectations.

GBP/USD Attempting to keep the price above 1.2000 in the positive

Alina Haynes

Dec 26, 2022 19:23

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GBP/USD recouped losses and flirted with daily highs after a brief slide to a new daily low of 1.2022. As speculative interest continues to examine contradictory macroeconomic data from the United States, the currency is now trading in the region of 1.2040-1.2060. On the one hand, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 5.5% year over year in November, down from 6.1% in October, showing a significant reduction in inflationary pressures in the country.

 

In contrast, Durable Goods Orders unexpectedly declined by 2.1% month-over-month in the same month, which was significantly worse than the 0.6% loss that market participants had anticipated. Nonetheless, the key statistic, Nondefense Capital Goods Orders excluding Aircraft, climbed by 0.2%, beating the expected reading of 0.0%.

 

The US Dollar initially rose in response to the news, but has since recovered as a result of weekly highs in Treasury yields. The yield on the 10-year note reached its highest level for the month of December at 3.728%, while the yield on the -year note rose to 4.322%. Prior to the opening of Wall Street, rates sustained their gains, while US indexes are expected to open with moderate gains, mirroring their foreign counterparts.

 

In the meantime, the British Pound remains weak as recent macroeconomic indicators indicate that the United Kingdom will continue in recession well beyond 2023.

 

The GBP/USD exchange rate is reasonably stable on a daily basis as a result of the advent of winter holidays, which reduces trade volumes. As the pair continues to trade beneath a bearish 200-day simple moving average (SMA) after breaking below it on Thursday, technical indicators on the daily chart indicate that further declines are ahead. In the interim, technical indicators evolve inside negative levels, devoid of directionality but displaying no signs of bearish tiredness and well above oversold levels.

 

The weekly low of 1.1991 is the nearest near-term support level leading to 1.1950. A daily close at the latter level may portend a more precipitous decline the following week. At the immediate resistance level of 1.2080, sellers are building short positions, followed by 1.2140.

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