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The yield on Japans five-year government bonds rose 3 basis points to 1.715%.The yield on Japans two-year government bonds rose 1.5 basis points to 1.29%.On February 9th, Nan Hua Futures reported that a research report indicated the fundamentals for a platinum-palladium bull market remain intact in the medium to long term. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will maintain its loose monetary policy stance in the first half of 2026, and increased central bank gold purchases, safe-haven demand, and investment demand will continue to push precious metal prices higher. While the nomination of Walsh, a supply-side economist, as Fed Chair has raised concerns about a potential breakdown in the support logic for precious metals (as Fed balance sheet reduction boosts dollar credibility), the US lacks the conditions for producing another "Volcker" before a disruptive breakthrough in AI technology. Furthermore, there is a conflict between "Trumps urgent need to lower medium- and long-term interest rates under midterm election pressure" and "balance sheet reduction pushing up term premiums and driving up long-term interest rates." Although the Fed expanded its balance sheet at the end of December last year, resulting in marginal improvement in liquidity, narrow reserves remain low, and dollar liquidity is tighter than it has been since the pandemic. Under these multiple pressures, Walshs nomination has limited impact, and a trend of liquidity expansion is highly probable. Given the high volatility in platinum and palladium, position control is crucial. Due to the discontinuity between domestic and international trading sessions, the opening price of platinum and palladium often references the overnight trading session in other countries. Investors should pay attention to international market prices and be wary of opening gaps. (This content and opinion are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.)The Ministry of Commerce will hold a press conference at 3:00 p.m. on Thursday, February 12, 2026, where a spokesperson will introduce the relevant situation of key work in the commercial field recently and answer questions from reporters.On February 9th, reports surfaced that Samsung Electronics was about to begin mass production of HBM4 memory chips used to build artificial intelligence infrastructure, sending the companys stock price up 6.4%. According to Yonhap News Agency, the South Korean tech giant plans to ship the semiconductor to Nvidia, a leader in AI accelerators, as early as the third week of February. Industry sources say these HBM chips will power the US companys upcoming Vera Rubin AI accelerator. Samsungs progress in high-bandwidth memory development indicates it is closing the gap with domestic competitors. As of last Fridays close, Samsungs stock price had risen more than 30% this year, as rising memory chip prices benefited all major players in the industry. Samsung may also have benefited from AI-related gains in the US stock market linked to data center construction. The four largest hyperscale companies plans to spend approximately $650 billion this year also contributed to Nvidias stock price rising nearly 8% last Friday.

Forecast for the price of gold: XAU/USD recovery aims toward $1,800 as US inflation prospects test Fed hawks

Daniel Rogers

Dec 06, 2022 14:57

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The price of gold (XAU/USD) is still rising, hovering around $1,778 as the US dollar battles to maintain its week-start gain on early Tuesday. In addition to the movements of the dollar, technical analysis supports bullion buyers in maintaining control even as markets contract prior to the Federal Reserve's policymakers going dark.

 

On Monday, the US ISM Services PMI increased to 56.5 in November from 53.1 in the market expectation and 54.4 in the prior readings, while Factory Orders likewise showed 1.0% growth vs 0.7% predicted and 0.3% in the prior readings. Additionally, the S&P Global Composite PMI increased to 46.4 from 46.3 initial estimates, while the corresponding figure for services increased to 46.2 from 46.1 flash expectations.

 

On Friday, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) surprised markets by increasing to 263K instead of the 200K predicted and the 284K previously reported, although the unemployment rate for November was in line with market expectations and previous readings at 3.7%. Charles Evans, president of the Chicago Federal Reserve, commented after the positive report that "we are probably going to have a slightly higher peak to Fed policy rate even as we moderate pace of rate hikes."

 

However, it should be noted that a surprise decline in US inflation expectations from a one-month high, as measured by the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates, according to data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED), calls into question the recent hawkish bias regarding the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) next move. The most recent estimates of inflation forecasts for the next five and ten years show a decline from the one-month peak to 2.46% and 2.39%, respectively.

 

In other places, the market's optimism appeared to have been aided by expectations that China will soon relax its rigorous Zero-COVID policy. According to Reuters, an anonymous source, China is expected to announce a further reduction of some of the world's strictest COVID regulations as early as Wednesday.

 

A three-day slump is broken by the S&P 500 Futures, which record intraday gains of 0.20 percent around 4,011. However, the US 10-year Treasury note yields have fallen three basis points (bps) to 3.56% as of press time, following a rally from an 11-week low established last Friday.

 

Moving on, Gold may continue to recover despite what is likely to be a slow day, although concerns about China and the Fed seem crucial for short-term trends.


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