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July 19th - According to CNN, the US military announced that two US troops stationed in Jordan were killed in action yesterday, and another is missing. This news is bound to further fuel anger among those in the US who oppose the war. In the first phase of the US-Iran war, 13 US military personnel have already died. Subsequently, a pilot died in a plane crash, bringing the death toll to 14. The latest casualties will bring the total number of US military deaths to 16, or even 17. This is clearly an extremely difficult moment for Trump. The American public generally does not support the war, and these casualties are likely to further erode public support for the war.According to Israels Channel 13, the United States is preparing to expand its operations against Iran by sending approximately 100 refueling aircraft to the Middle East. Israeli defense agencies are preparing for a potential major escalation in the region.July 19th - According to Axios, US military officials stated that two US service members were killed and several others injured in an Iranian ballistic missile attack on a Jordanian airbase on Saturday. This attack marks the first US military deaths since the conflict resumed two weeks ago. It also brings the total number of US military deaths in this round of the war to 16. It is reported that Iran launched at least two ballistic missiles on Saturday, hitting the Mowafak Salti airbase in Jordan. This base houses US troops and fighter jets.U.S. Central Command: Two U.S. service members were killed in Jordan on July 17, and another U.S. service member is missing.July 19th - A study released on the 18th by the Italian Confederation of Business, Tourism and Services Businesses indicates that with increasingly frequent extreme weather events, prolonged heatwaves could cause Italy economic losses of €6 billion to €12 billion (approximately RMB 46.5 billion to 93 billion) annually. The report points out that if Italy experiences 30 to 60 days of extreme heat each year, businesses will face multiple pressures, including rising energy costs, decreased labor productivity, forced increases in adaptive investments, and reduced turnover. High temperatures will also alter consumer and tourism habits, further impacting the commerce and tourism sectors.

Forecast for the price of gold: XAU/USD recovery aims toward $1,800 as US inflation prospects test Fed hawks

Daniel Rogers

Dec 06, 2022 14:57

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The price of gold (XAU/USD) is still rising, hovering around $1,778 as the US dollar battles to maintain its week-start gain on early Tuesday. In addition to the movements of the dollar, technical analysis supports bullion buyers in maintaining control even as markets contract prior to the Federal Reserve's policymakers going dark.

 

On Monday, the US ISM Services PMI increased to 56.5 in November from 53.1 in the market expectation and 54.4 in the prior readings, while Factory Orders likewise showed 1.0% growth vs 0.7% predicted and 0.3% in the prior readings. Additionally, the S&P Global Composite PMI increased to 46.4 from 46.3 initial estimates, while the corresponding figure for services increased to 46.2 from 46.1 flash expectations.

 

On Friday, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) surprised markets by increasing to 263K instead of the 200K predicted and the 284K previously reported, although the unemployment rate for November was in line with market expectations and previous readings at 3.7%. Charles Evans, president of the Chicago Federal Reserve, commented after the positive report that "we are probably going to have a slightly higher peak to Fed policy rate even as we moderate pace of rate hikes."

 

However, it should be noted that a surprise decline in US inflation expectations from a one-month high, as measured by the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates, according to data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED), calls into question the recent hawkish bias regarding the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) next move. The most recent estimates of inflation forecasts for the next five and ten years show a decline from the one-month peak to 2.46% and 2.39%, respectively.

 

In other places, the market's optimism appeared to have been aided by expectations that China will soon relax its rigorous Zero-COVID policy. According to Reuters, an anonymous source, China is expected to announce a further reduction of some of the world's strictest COVID regulations as early as Wednesday.

 

A three-day slump is broken by the S&P 500 Futures, which record intraday gains of 0.20 percent around 4,011. However, the US 10-year Treasury note yields have fallen three basis points (bps) to 3.56% as of press time, following a rally from an 11-week low established last Friday.

 

Moving on, Gold may continue to recover despite what is likely to be a slow day, although concerns about China and the Fed seem crucial for short-term trends.


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